Here’s FFGeek Contributor Stephen Troop with his FPL Tips 22/23 article Part 2 where he analyses the Popular picks so far in Fantasy Premier League. Stephens last 4 seasons ORs were 16k, 22k, 86k and 43k.
FPL Tips 22/23 – Analysing The Popular Picks – Part 2
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Introduction
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It’s been 2 weeks since my initial article detailing the most popular FPL picks and my aim was to provide an update to see where the most recent trends lie. As I write this there are around 3.4m teams created which is around double what it was when I wrote the previous article but considerably below what the expected total is when the first deadline occurs.
So, lets get stuck in. I will analyse each position by looking at the top players by % owned currently (right image) and compare this to what it was for my original article (left image). I’ll make note of any trends and opportunities.
Goalkeepers
There’s little movement in terms of goalkeeper ownership with Mendy and Allison still leading the way at 25% and 19% respectively. Raya has dropped from 15% to 11% which is likely due to the arrival of Strakosha putting him a little at risk of gametime. Otherwise we see a fairly large spread
Defenders
The premium triple of Alexander Arnold, Cancelo and James continue the way with similarly high ownerships as before. Perisic however has reduced from 46% to 33% as a result of not having featured so far in pre-season adding more risk to his gametime. Chilwell’s ownership has also fallen indicating that Chelsea’s poor pre-season so far is putting people off significant investment in their defence. Injuries have also dampened interest in the Arsenal value pick of Tomiyasu and White has also dropped interestingly.
Nico Williams has shot up following his move to Nottingham Forest. Unsurprising that a £4.0m playing defender with attacking potential will be popular but indicates a shift away from 5 at the back for some teams given the similarity in other ownership levels.
Midfielders
Salah and Diaz ownership levels have dropped slightly but remain the most popular midfield picks. We see increases for £4.5m bench player Andreas following his confirmed move to Fulham and for the two Man united midfielders in Rashford and Sancho. United’s pre-season so far has been positive from an attacking point of view and either of these two could prove excellent value. Much of this is dependent on whether Ronaldo leaves as you’d expect him to have more share of the goals and limit the appeal of those around him.
We see some dampened interest in Neto but he still remains relatively popular. This could be down to an increase in demand for Bailey after a good pre-season so far (but remains lowly owned still). Bailey looks to be a good pick however he still has competition from Buendia particularly so there is a minutes risk which is less so for Neto. Interest remains surprisingly low (in my opinion) for Mount (£8m), Mahrez (£8m) and Grealish (£7m). With most people on Haaland and Cancelo it seems people prefer a 2nd defensive player as their third for City over an attacker.
Despite Sterling’s move to Chelsea we don’t see any interest here yet. His price does make it difficult to fit in however.
Forwards
Jesus has continued his fine pre-season form as Arsenal beat Chelsea 4-0 which is enough to increase his ownership even further than it was. At 63% ownership he is by far the most popular player in the game and I don’t see this shifting with his generous looking price tag, fixtures and now form (albeit pre-season form). Haaland has dropped quite a lot but is still in 59% of teams. Kane getting a boost as a result to 22%. The Community Shield could impact this further. 4 goals for Darwin Nunez in their latest friendly isn’t enough to increase his ownership. Unsurprising given the other options in the Liverpool side. Jota’s injury however could help Darwin depending on severity.
Opportunities
The template remains strong however like before we can identify the key areas of your team that can make an impact. The 8.0m midfielders have some great differentials and United’s midfielders increase in popularity have made the midfielder slots more varied in general so warrant most attention from managers wanting to get ahead of the pack.
For those wanting to go against the template I still think Kane instead of Haaland GW1 is shrewd. Either with a straight swap to Haaland in GW2 or simply keeping and captaining Salah vs Crystal palace at home in GW2 (hardly a bad captaincy option).
The Community Shield match will be key in making those decisions. Robertson remains criminally underowned in my view and allows getting Mount/Mahrez etc instead of Diaz. Things will get much more manic as GW1 approaches so imagine some of these things will change but we can expect from now we will see additional teams being more casual players, and as such the trends may not be as relevant.
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