FPL transfer tips GW31 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


,

Here’s our FPL transfer tips GW31 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

FPL transfer tips GW31 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.

Join the FFGeek FPL Patreon site

* access to the FFGeek Contributor tracker team (37k OR)

* Weekly podcasts

* Joe’s interactive transfer planner & team (32K)

* imaginary wildcard articles

* Slack channel access

$2 & $3 tiers.

No commitment beyond 1 month

https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfootballgeek

The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Marcus Rashford

Before the Restart a game against Sheffield United might have seemed a difficult one.  However 2 diabolical defensive performances against 2 of the more ordinary attacking teams in Aston Villa and Newcastle has dramatically changed the perception of the fixture.  To concede 3 goals and an xG of 2.15 against the worst attacking team in the league in Newcastle is some feat.  The 0-0 draw with Villa wasn’t as bad as they did avoid conceding but underlying stats wise it wasn’t great and hardly confidence building for the defence.

Sheffield now face Man Utd with their star GK Henderson ineligible as he’s on loan from United.  They also have 2 first choice CBs likely to be out in the suspended Egan and the injured O’Connel.  It really doesn’t bode well.

As for the £8.8m forward Rashford himself, the main FPL impediment is competition for our FPL teams from Martial and Bruno Fernandes.

Against Spurs he lined up on the left again and blanked although the underlying stats with 2 shots and 1 key pass weren’t horrible.

Over the season his underlying stats have been excellent and he was top of our forward player rankings prior to the Restart.  He also has an excellent Points per Match of 5.9 second only to Jamie Vardy for forwards.  However all that is built on 5 penalties of his 14 goals.  Take that away and the stats paint a very different picture.  Penalty duties looks like it has been taken away as we saw Bruno Fernandes dispatch the penalty against Spurs in GW30+.  However we were left with the intriguing sight of Rashford picking up the ball when a second penalty (overturned by VAR) was given.  He held that ball, seemingly without dispute from what I saw, until it was handed back after the VAR review.

This potential loss of penalties and the competition within United for our FPL teams is what you need to consider when deciding on Rashford.  However on the positive side you can see from our Fixture Ease article and the schedule below that Man Utd have excellent fixtures over the next 6

Bruno Fernandes

You shouldn’t really be negative about the Man Utd £8.6m midfielder when he has the highest Points Per Match at 7.8 of anyone in FPL.  He also has penalty duties and excellent set piece responsibility for a Man Utd side with a good run  of fixtures to the end of the season.

However like Rashford it’s built on a foundation of penalties.  2 of his 3 goals so far are penalties.  Man Utd have had 11 penalties awarded to them this season which is some tally.  Interestingly United also had 12 awarded last season so this isn’t an outlier. Before that you had to go back to Leicesters league title in 15/16 to see more penalties given.  However most seasons see double figure penalty counts for at least 1 team.  It’s just how many more have United got in them?  Will VAR and a closed stadium lead to more or less penalties.

Because without penalties you have to question how much Fernandes will contribute.  The Spurs game was a pretty good example.  5 shots but with an xG of 0.11 total of the remaining 4 non penalty shots with only 1 of the 4 being in the box.  In fact 17 of his 22 shots have been from outside the box.  On average his non penalty shots have a 4% chance of scoring.  I can deal with these sorts of stats from De Bruyne but is Fernandes in the same category is the question you have to ask your self.

To choose Fernandes you need to believe that he will get more penalties and/or he can score from the ridiculous shooting positions he takes on.  United have the fixtures to give him a chance to do so.

Jimenez

The £8.1m Wolves forward’s goal and 8 FPL points vs West Ham was another return in the remarkably consistent season of the Wolves forward.  He’s now returned in 17 of his 30 games played giving him an excellent consistency return rate of 56%.  No forward or midfielder for the price has a better %.  What’s more you can see from the last forward player rankings articles that he’s consistently done this over the season.  No peaks and troughs for Jimenez.  He also has the highest PPM of any forward for the price.

He’s also consistent in starting and playing 90 minutes despite the Europa League campaign Wolves were on.  In the last 10 gameweeks he’s started every game and played 90 minutes in 9.

Lastly the fixtures are excellent over the next 6 as you can see below and in our fixture ease article.  With Bournemouth and Villa next he faces 2 of the worst defensive sides in the league

Ings

The £7.1m Southampton forward broke a run of 1 return in 7 games with a goal and an assist 11 FPL point return against the hapless Norwich team in GW30+.  He was back to his best after some pretty questionable performances prior to that.

Doubts remain over whether he will be able to play every game given his injury track record and the fact that the manager has pro actively benched him in those 7 recent games to avoid injury risk.  There’s no chance Southampton will be relegated so risking him from further injury seems a possible future tactic.  The manager must also feel the need to give expensive flop Che Adams some minutes as well to help his form or shop window him for Championship teams.  After the next 2 matches the fixtures also get tricker as you’ll see below.

The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek




Aubameyang

Although the £11.0m Arsenal forward blanked,  the 2 games from an underlying stats perspectives weren’t great but not disastrous.  He did carry the Arsenal defence himself v Brighton taking 7 of the 13 shots and 0.45 of the 0.70 xG.

However, it’s now 3 consecutive blanks and at his price  that’s never going to wash and transfers out will be inevitable.  He’s overperformed pretty ordinary underlying stats all season with no history of showing he can do this.  In my forwards player ranking article prior to GW30+ he was 9th when underlying stats were converted to FPL points.  That’s just not acceptable.  It’s also worth noting that Arsenal are 12th in xG this season and 14th in shots per game.  There are 25 players above the first Arsenal player in Nicolas Pepe for xA90 (1,000 mins minimum) to show the lack of creativity in the team.  Arsenal are not the attacking home for an £11.0m forward.

The tricky thing about selling now is the GW32 fixture v Norwich where he could conceivable be a captain favourite given that Man City and Liverpool play each other.  So transfer him out now with that risk acknowledged.  After that game the fixtures do really turn negatively though.

Grealish

It’s now 4 consecutive blanks and 1 assist in the last 7 games for the £6.4m Villa talisman midfielder.  In the last 3 games he hasn’t taken a shot and has only made 4 key passes within minimal expected assist value.  The fixtures after Newcastle next are not easy either.  Hard to be positive about him.

Aguero

Selling the £11.8m Man City forward could be regretted before he has the chance to prove his worth vs Burnley on Monday night.  However for FPL teams loaded up on City assets for the double gameweek 30 when they play Chelsea and Liverpool next he is an obvious release of funds.

His benching in game one of the double certainly wouldn’t have helped his cause especially when it’s was one of 6 this season when he’s averaged 61 minutes on the occasions when he has got on the pitch.

However it should be remembered that his FPL points per 90 minutes played is an insane 8.2 and his underlying stats per 90 are unbelieveable.  In 7 minutes of normal time v Arsenal he managed 3 shots.  Only De Bruyne managed more over the whole game.   If only you could guarantee decent pitch time.

Dean Henderson 

The £5.3m Sheffield United goalkeeper is ineligible to play against his parent club Man Utd in GW31+.  Given the struggles and injuries of the Sheffield defence since the Restart it’s no wonder that he’s being sold.  Especially given the price.

It comes down to whether you think Sheffield can turn their defence around and whether you have an alternative option for this gameweek.

A fixture ease schedule for attacking players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 gameweeks. There’s attacking player suggestions below.

FPL best fixtures GW31

A fixture ease schedule for defensive players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 gameweeks. There’s defensive player suggestions below.

FPL best fixtures GW31

Other posts

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

For more FPL transfer tips GW31   follow  FFGeek on   twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

1 thought on “FPL transfer tips GW31 – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. Love your work Geek. If putting penalty duties (and possibility of injury) aside, and assuming Man Utd don’t lose matches; based on underlying stats can you comment on who is likely to earn more bonus points (from now till season’s end) between Rashford & Fernandes?

Comments are closed.