FPL transfer tips GW33 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our FPL transfer tips GW33 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

FPL transfer tips GW33 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek




Martial

An £8.2m FPL classified midfielder playing as a striker in a Champions League place challenging team is a major attraction.   That is the case with Martial, at least after his hat trick in GW32+.  His Points Per Match of 5.8 is certainly good.  He is a respectable 5th among Midfielders with everyone above him more expensive. His non penalty underlying stats are similar to Rashford’s, although being in a central position, you would expect him to at least match Rashford’s shooting.  However, he is someway behind.

The fixtures are good and the only negatives are the competition from Rashford and Fernandes as your FPL teams Man Utd representation.

It’s worth noting that Man Utd have still to play in GW32+ so there is some residual injury risk when transferring him in before that.

Marcus Rashford

The Man Utd £9.1m forward’s FPL Points Per Match of 6.0 is 2nd only to Jamie Vardy for forwards and his underlying stats, including his shooting volumes, on the surface are excellent. Further positives are the fixtures as you will see below.

However of his 14 goals 5 have come from the penalty spot and those duties now seem to fall squarely with Bruno Fernandes.  Once you strip those penalties out he is 8th in non penalty xG which paints a less rosy picture.  He also plays in left sided attacking position as opposed to centrally which isn’t ideal.   Also his history tends to show that he undershoots his underlying stats.

It’s weighing up the negatives against the positives and the other Manchester United options in Martial and Fernandes.

As I said above for Martial, it’s worth noting that Man Utd have still to play in GW32+ so there is some residual injury risk when transferring him in before that.

Ings

The £7.3m Southampton forward sits 5th in the forwards Points Per Match ranking.  After 7 games, between GW23 and GW29,  with the 1 solitary goal as his return, he’s suddenly come back into the frame in the last 3 weeks with 11 points vs Norwich and 13 points vs Watford.

It was 2 shots and 2 goals vs Watford and although the goal and assist against Norwich came off better volumes it’s hard to say that everything is hunky dory.  His underlying stats overall aren’t too dissimilar to the players above when penalties are stripped out but he does tend to produce a number of matches of little output, especially recently.

The next 3 fixtures of Man City, Everton and Man Utd are tough ones and the big question is whether now is the time to get him in.

Pulisic

The first thing to say with the £7.0m Chelsea midfielder is that he is an injury doubt so it will be interesting to see whether he lines up vs West Ham in GW32+ which is still yet to play as I write this.  Pulisic has a respectable Points per Match of 4.7 even though in 18 games he’s been a sub 5 times which negatively distorts that figure.

His underlying stats are exceptional and it’s worth noting that his non penalty xG is better (albeit only slightly) than any other midfielder including Salah, Mane and Sterling.  They all have better xA but still it’s some statistic in favour of Pulisic.

Chelsea’s fixtures as you’ll see are good although the rotation by the manager is quite significant so he’s always going to be someone who you will be nervously waiting on while you constantly refresh your phone for the Chelsea team sheet.

The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek




Grealish

The £6.2m Aston Villa midfield talisman was a popular pick when Villa had a double gameweek in GW30+.  However he blanked twice in that double and has not returned since.  In fact it’s now 6 consecutive blanks.  In those 6 games Villa have only scored 2 goals.  Grealish has only had 2 shots in his last 5 games and none in 4 of those 5 games.

The fixtures aren’t exactly helpful either as you can see below

Lundstram

It’s not often you get a £4.0m defender who plays in a midfield role in a team that also keeps clean sheets.  However that Fantasy Football perfect storm seems to be coming to an end for the now £4.8m Sheffield United defender.  Sheffield’s defence seems to be falling apart, Lundstram has suffered a shoulder injury which has yet to be given an assessment for a return date and despite starting 3 of the last 4 games he still looks like a rotation risk.

With Sheffield’s defensive fixtures also looking difficult he looks like a nailed on sell

Aubameyang

The £11.0m Arsenal forward has yet to play Norwich in GW32+ as I write this and there’s no doubt this could influence sellers view of Aubameyang.  However, the next 4 fixtures of Wolves, Leicester, Spurs and Liverpool make him a natural sale target whatever the outcome.

In pure returns, a PPM of 5.4 which is 4th of all forwards isn’t too bad and you’re at least guaranteed something like 90 minutes every game and penalty duties.

However the underlying stats are disturbing.  In non penalty xG he’s 10th in the forwards ranking with a very similar looking set of stats to Neal Maupay.  Neal Maupay actually shoots alot more believe it or not.  Aubameyang’s excellent returns are based on the fact that he is able to over perform his underlying stats this season, which he has no history of being able to do.

What’s more Arsenal aren’t exactly firing on all attacking cylinders and are 10th in total xG this season.  Only a whisker ahead of Burnley in 11th.  In shots per game they are 14th.  Maupay’s Brighton are 8th.

So if you don’t believe in the significance of underlying stats then Aubameyang isn’t a particular problem.  However, you still have to believe the next upcoming fixtures are worth holding him for compared to others.

Aguero

The £11.7m forward has a knee injury which, although yet to be fully assessed, looks like it could end his season with 5 to 6 weeks being reported .  The logical candidate to replace him is £9.6m forward Gabriel Jesus although Pep has made comments suggesting that he will share the forward duties and the fact that Jesus didn’t start v Chelsea lends some credence to that.  Hard to believe given that Gabriel Jesus has to be the future of Man City as a forward that he won’t get significant gametime. Otherwise what’s the point of being at City he may ask himself?

Jesus’s underlying stats when on the pitch are outstanding.  Better than outstanding even.  He just can’t put the ball into the back of the net and this is the pattern of the last 3 seasons.

A fixture ease schedule for attacking players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the defences they face over the next 6 gameweeks.  It’s taken from our fixture ease article

A fixture ease schedule for defensive players

Here’s a graphic where the teams are ranked by the ease of the attacking teams they face over the next 6 gameweeks.  It’s taken from our fixture ease article

FPL best fixtures GW33

Other Posts

Fixture ease rankings

 10 Top FPL managers teams

Early FFGeek team thoughts

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