FPL Underlying Stats – the 4 forwards who shoot the most


Here’s an FPL underlying stats article where we outline the 4 forwards who topped the shots per game statistic so far in the Premier League and why it’s important

FPL Underlying Stats – the 4 forwards who shoot the most

I outline my  FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.




Background

If you are a regular reader of the site you will know that the primary underlying stats that I rely on are expected goals and expected assists which I get from the free site Understat.  However I always like to back it up with volume stats as well.  It’s all very well and good having great expected goals but if you don’t shoot regularly then good expected goals stats can be a bit of a mirage.

The shooting stats are from the free site whoscored.com

Top 4 Forwards

Generally I want my forwards to shoot at least 3 times per game.

Jimenez

Is there nothing this guy can’t do?  Not only top of the forwards shots per game with 3.4 per match but he also tops the key passes per game stat for forwards.  All this from basically a counter attacking side who are 12th in terms of the possession stats.

He’s been a model of consistency over the season.  In my player rankings articles where I convert underlying stats to FPL points he is ranked 5th in forwards over the season, 5th in the last 10 gameweeks and 6th in the last 5 gameweeks.  In the value for money stakes for forwards only Calvert Lewin, Troy Deeney and the guy who can’t turn underlying stats into points ever Christian Benteke have a higher value for money factor.

Jimenez is 7th in PPM but only Tammy Abraham is cheaper in that top 7.  In total points he’s 3rd which is a remarkable achievement based on his consistency of lining up.  That’s despite the distraction of a Europa League place.

Also in terms of fixtures to the end of the season he has a great set.

He is also part of my 10 Top Managers template.

For me he is a difficult player not to have in your FPL team.

Marcus Rashford

It’s pretty impressive to see a guy who plays as a left sided forward rather than a CF being 2nd in the shots per game stats for a forward also with 3.4 but having played less minutes than Jimenez.  Given his position you’d expect reasonably healthy key pass statistics and indeed he is 4th over the season for forwards.

In points per match for forwards Rashford is 2nd only to Jamie Vardy.  The main caveat about Rashford though is that of the 14 goals he’s scored 5 have been penalties.  That duty could now easily fall to Bruno Fernandes who took the penalty given since he came into the team in January and also took penalties successfully for Sporting in Portugal.

Rashford is now over his injury and back training although it remains to be seen how many games he will play and minutes per game he can manage after that injury if the restart plays fixtures out in a condensed time frame.




Sergio Aguero 

If Sergio Aguero was guaranteed anything like 90 minutes per game he would be a difficult player not to have in your team at any price.

Of players with over 500 minutes played no one shoots more per 90 minutes than Sergio Aguero.  Also in terms of non penalty xG90 only his team mate Jesus has better stats than Aguero’s insane 0.81xG per 90.

The problem is of course is that he doesn’t play close to 90 minutes.  This season he’s only started 16 games of the 29 and come on as a sub in 6 of those.  His average minutes over the season are a paltry 63.  That’s just not good enough for the price.  That improved in the last 10 gameweeks to 73 minutes average played but still not good enough.   That doesn’t tell the full story as it doesn’t include the 2 games he sat on the bench and didn’t come on.  To make matters worse his average sub minutes when coming on was 16 although amazingly he did return in 3 of those 6 sub appearances.

There’s no doubt about his quality it’s just the rotation and average minutes played

Roberto Firmino

Despite being seen as a false 9 who often drops into midfield as a problem solver there’s nothing wrong with Firmino’s shot output at 3.0 per game.

Like Jimenez, Firmino also has the ability to provide key chances and that has meant his underlying stats over the season when converted to FPL points in my player rankings article actually seems him in 3rd place.

In points per game though he’s a disappointing 9th among forwards with a PPM of 4.5.  The difference in underlying stats and actual returns is the fact that he just can’t seem to put the ball in the net.  In fact no player has under performed his xG more than Firmino.  The hope going forward though is that he has no history of being a bad finisher and that stat will correct itself over the rest of the season

Comparing the player stats 

FPL underlying stats

So what does it mean?

So seeing the stats in the table above, you can see that shots per game don’t particularly tally with PPM as Jimenez and Firmino are quite low in the PPM ranking despite the fact that they also had assists to help their points total.

Firmino is probably easier to reconcile.  He has significantly undershot his underlying stats and also doesn’t have penalties to pad out his PPM which the other 3 do.

Jimenez is trickier to understand.  He has penalties, does well on bonus and although he too under shoots his underlying stats its not by much.  Probably the best way of looking at it is that Kane and Abraham above him in the PPM ranking are only at 5.2 PPM so it wouldn’t have taken much for him to be ranked 5th instead of 7th which would have been more consistent with his shots per game.

So shots per game as far as forwards are concerned are more of a check that a stat that can govern player selection by itself.

The Fixture Ease schedule

Here’s a representation of the fixture ease schedule which shows the ease of each teams remaining fixtures.  It is out of date in the sense that the order is likely to now be from GW30 onwards and the ranking assumes home and away advantage with supporters in the ground.  However it does still give an indication of the fixture strength and gives you a visual representation of the remaining fixtures

fantasy premier league underlying stats

I outline my  FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.

Other Posts

10 top FPL Managers teams post GW38 

Best fixtures until the end of the season attackers

Best fixtures to the end of the season defenders

Each teams top PPM player – Arsenal and Aston Villa

Each Teams top PPM player – Bournemouth and Brighton

Each teams top PPM player – Burnley and Chelsea

Each teams top PPM player – Palace and Everton

Each teams top PPM player – Leicester and Liverpool

Each teams top PPM player – Man Utd and Man City

Each teams top PPM player – Norwich and Newcastle

Each teams top PPM player – Southampton and Sheffield

Each teams top PPM player – Watford and Spurs

Latest news on the premier league restart

Disappointments – Part 10

Disappointments – part 9

Disappointments – part 8

Disappointments – part 7

Disappointments – part 6

Disappointments  – part 5

Disappointments – part 4

Disappointments – part 3

Disappointments – part 2

Disappointments – part 1

A deep dive on the 10 top FPL managers stats

Andrew Whitfield gradual wildcard

Social Media

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