FPL underlying stats GW10 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW9


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW10 article where we present expected goals/assist information as well as shot/key pass stats up to and including GW9. We look at stats for individual players by position and a team defence and attack ranking

FPL underlying stats GW10 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW9





See also the review of GW9 in isolation

Background

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com.

Shot and key pass stats are from the excellent free site whoscored.com

Everything is done on the basis of per 90 minutes played rather than per game. That’s so you can see how effective a player is on the pitch.

Methods and Caveats for player rankings

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then ranked them by projected total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 300 minutes.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Ramsey have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

I have tried to pick relevant players. It’s impossible to rank everyone.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any. Please point out any in the comments section.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case Monday 1st October.

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

Shts P90: The amount of shots taken per 90 minutes played

KP P90: the amount of key passes played per 90 minutes played

Proj Pts: I project the FPL points as if the player plays 38 games for 90 minutes. It’s an easy way to get the right points balance between NPxG and xA and the goals and assists they would produce

VFM ratio: The ratio of projected points to the value. It’s a rough value for money calculation. 10 is a rough average

Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet

Defenders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes. Only attacking stats not clean sheets.

FPL underlying stats GW10

Midfielders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes



FPL underlying stats GW10

Forwards

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes

FPL underlying stats GW10

Team Attack xG

Team xG
Manchester City 26.96
Chelsea 17.87
Liverpool 17.33
Bournemouth 16.95
Tottenham 15.91
Manchester United 13.57
Arsenal 13.33
Watford 11.62
Wolverhampton Wanderers 11.51
Southampton 11.20
Everton 11.13
Fulham 10.35
Brighton 10.11
Leicester 10.07
West Ham 9.28
Cardiff 9.19
Crystal Palace 8.07
Burnley 8.00
Newcastle United 7.69
Huddersfield 5.38

Team defence xG conceded

Team xG conceded
Manchester City 4.31
Liverpool 6.53
Wolverhampton Wanderers 7.22
Chelsea 9.33
Bournemouth 9.84
Tottenham 10.2
Everton 10.8
Watford 11.46
Leicester 11.5
Arsenal 11.88
Manchester United 13.13
Crystal Palace 13.17
Newcastle United 13.48
Huddersfield 13.93
West Ham 14.44
Cardiff 14.63
Southampton 14.9
Brighton 16.42
Burnley 18.59
Fulham 19.75

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13 thoughts on “FPL underlying stats GW10 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW9

  1. With Hazard very likely to miss the Burnley game i wanted to swap him out for Salah, but i can only get 11 million for him and then must buy back for 11.4? This is absolutely ridiculous

  2. Hi geek ,excellent stuff. 2 small comments, I think Trippier is missing in the list, and is the protective points of the forwards is per 90 minuts and not total?

  3. So when I take for instance Ageuro and his 8,1 projected points per 90 minutes, so I should multiply 8,1pts by 38 games and I will get 307pts. When I divide it by 11,3 price I will get 27,23.
    I must have calculated it wrong. Could you explain me, please;)

    • Hi mate. You’ve altered me to a hideous mistake in the spreadsheet which I’ve fixed now. Yes its the projected points divided by the price. Remember though it’s on the assumption of 38 games and 90 minutes just to work out what they do when on the pitch as an even comparison

      thanks again

  4. Thanks. Now is more clear;)
    Btw this this approach is maybe too detached from reality. Some players have already more points after 9 games or they are very close to their projected points after 38 games (Martial or Maddison).
    But still I like it:)

    • Thanks Marcin

      The purpose of doing it was to illustrate the difference between the value of xG and xA in FPL terms. For a defender FPL points are double for a goal than they are for an assist and probably more likely to bring bonus so the points projection was to illustrate the stats in FPL terms. The projected points are only the raw attacking points not the appearance, bonus and clean sheet points and they are only there to give an idea of the FPL value of underlying stats

      The VFM is just to give some context to the stats in relation to the price. Fraser at £6.0m doesn’t need to have the stats that Hazard does at £11.4 say and the VFM gives an idea how they are performing for their cost

      When I do the player rankings they are adjusted for minutes played, under overperformance, historical context, and appearance and bonus potential. It’s just too long a formula to put into a graphic

      The premable to the stats is a bit of a long bore to read but it does explain the context of everything so maybe worth re reading that

      Cheers and hope this has given you a better picture

  5. Thanks Mate! Now it is even more clear for me. I appreciate your explanation. The context that only the raw attacking points are taken into calculation explains a lot.

  6. I wonder if it is worth taking into account the strength of opponents. For example, Arnautovic achieved these levels of xG and xA in clashes against 5 out of big 6. Wilson played only against one team from big 6 for now. The strengh of your opponets has significant impact for personal xG or xA, especially when your opponent has an extremely positive xG conceded result.

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