FPL underlying stats GW13 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW12


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW13 article where we present expected goals/assist information as well as shot/key pass stats up to and including GW12. We look at stats for individual players by position.

FPL underlying stats GW13 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW12

Methods and Caveats for player rankings

Expected goals (xG) and assists (xA) is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot or assist of a shot will end up as a goal.

Here I’ve taken the xG90 and xA90 and turned into project attacking FPL points for the season.  No appearance points or clean sheet points or bonus just the basic goal and assist points. I’ve included the penalty part of xG where the player is the designated penalty taker.

I’ve then adjusted midfielders and forward for the minutes they would be expected to play in each game.  Generally by taking the average of the last 4 matches as a rule of thumb.

There’s also the Shots and key passes per 90 in the schedule too.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any. Please point out any in the comments section.

What you see below is a graphic.  Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet

Midfielders





The players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the xG90 and xA90 stats to date assuming they played 38 games for and then adjusted for the average minutes expected to play.  Doesn’t include bonus, appearance etc just raw attacking points

FPL underlying stats GW13

Forwards

The players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the xG90 and xA90 stats to date assuming they played 38 games for and then adjusted for the average minutes expected to play.  Doesn’t include bonus, appearance etc just raw attacking points

FPL underlying stats GW13

Note:  I’ve assumed Murray takes pens but not Arnautovic

Defenders

The players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the xG90 and xA90 stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes. No minutes adjustment on this one. Only attacking stats not clean sheets or bonus.



FPL underlying stats GW13

See also our fixture ease article,  early thoughts on the FFGeek team and the 10 top FPL managers article

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8 thoughts on “FPL underlying stats GW13 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW12”

    • Thanks for spotting that. It’s the sort of thing that I find surprisingly easy to do. Now corrected. Thanks again. Enjoy the International break and good luck for GW13

    • Hi Rob

      The problem is that both articles took an enormity of time to do and meant I got behind with other articles and put too much time pressure on the whole process. I may revisit them but my thoughts if I don’t is that I just do the cumulative articles in the International Breaks when there’s more time

      Thanks

  1. Hey great article some really interesting stuff! Was surprised not to see Shaqiri on there though he’s obviously a game time risk but he’s played in 6 of the last 7 with attacking returns in 5 of them and a ridiculous PP90…

    • Hi mate

      One of the filters was some sort of gametime security where obviously that’s a bit more difficult for Shaqiri. You are right though if he was a 90 minute player he would be in the top 6 or so. Even if you ignore the gametime issue it’s difficult though to know how sustainable it is given he’s, not surprisingly, miles above his Stoke numbers. His Bayern numbers aren’t hugely different but again translation is difficult. cheers and good luck

      Cheers

      • Thanks for the reply yeah agree with all of that. I definitely don’t think he’s gonna start many games against the top 8 but if Klopp sees him as the solution to breaking down packed defences against everyone else then 7m for a Liverpool forward who’s in form and on corners and free kicks is maybe worth a punt 🙂

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