FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW30 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW29.   We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary.  

 FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW29 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW29 review




BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank HomeAway
1Manchester City11
2Tottenham22
3Chelsea43
4Liverpool34
5Manchester United58
6West Bromwich Albion711
7Brighton116
8Leicester127
9Arsenal109
10Southampton812
11Huddersfield913
12Burnley1510
13Crystal Palace1414
14Watford205
15Newcastle United1316
16Swansea1715
17West Ham620
18Everton1618
19Stoke1817
20Bournemouth1919

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank HomeAway
1Manchester City11
2Liverpool32
3Tottenham43
4Arsenal28
5Manchester United54
6Chelsea75
7Crystal Palace611
8Leicester89
9Watford137
10Newcastle United176
11Southampton913
12Everton1112
13West Ham1810
14Stoke1216
15Brighton1019
16Bournemouth1414
17West Bromwich Albion1517
18Huddersfield1915
19Swansea1620
20Burnley2018

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubVal £mNPxG90xA90Proj Pts
1Sead KolasinacArsenal5.80.090.1942
2Marcos AlonsoChelsea7.20.130.1041
3Victor MosesChelsea6.40.130.0940
4Miguel BritosWatford4.30.100.1135
5Virgil van DijkLiverpool5.60.080.1434
6James MilnerLiverpool6.00.080.1434
7Eric BaillyMan United6.00.130.0232
8Joel MatipLiverpool5.40.120.0331
9Ciaran ClarkNewcastle Utd4.40.110.0531
10RobertsonLiverpool4.90.030.2030
11Héctor BellerínArsenal6.00.080.1030
12ZappacostaChelsea5.90.080.1030
13Nacho MonrealArsenal5.60.080.1030
14Maya YoshidaSouthampton4.60.110.0329
15van AanholtCrystal Palace5.10.070.1129
16Daryl JanmaatWatford4.80.100.0427
17Craig DawsonWBA4.80.100.0427
18Kieran TrippierTottenham5.30.020.2027
19Harry MaguireLeicester5.50.050.1427
20Wesley HoedtSouthampton5.00.090.0425
21José HolebasWatford4.80.020.1825
22Dejan LovrenLiverpool5.30.080.0625
23Serge AurierTottenham5.90.030.1625
24Nicolás OtamendiMan City6.90.100.0124
25John StonesMan City5.30.100.0023
26Laurent KoscielnyArsenal6.00.090.0223
27Ben DaviesTottenham5.90.050.1023
28Alexander-ArnoldLiverpool4.30.030.1423
29Kevin LongBurnley4.10.030.1423
30Lewis DunkBrighton4.50.090.0122
31Kyle WalkerMan City6.60.010.1722
32Ryan BertrandSouthampton5.30.050.0821
33Alfie MawsonSwansea5.10.080.0221
34Wes MorganLeicester4.40.080.0221
35Jonny EvansWBA4.90.070.0421
36Shane DuffyBrighton4.60.070.0421
37Leighton BainesEverton5.60.030.1119
38César AzpilicuetaChelsea6.90.020.1319
39David LuizChelsea5.70.080.0018
40Ahmed HegazyWBA4.70.070.0117
41Ragnar KlavanLiverpool4.20.070.0117
42ZankaHuddersfield4.50.070.0117
43Sebastian PrödlWatford4.30.060.0317
44Ben ChilwellLeicester4.30.020.1016
45Jack StephensSouthampton4.50.060.0115
46Jamaal LascellesNewcastle Utd4.70.060.0115
47Tommy SmithHuddersfield4.70.010.1115
48SchindlerHuddersfield4.60.020.0915
49Cédric SoaresSouthampton4.70.030.0715

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubVal £mNPxG90xA90Proj PtsPts/£m
1Mohamed SalahLiverpool10.60.740.2617016.1
2Raheem SterlingMan City8.70.570.3114416.5
3Sadio ManéLiverpool9.40.500.2111912.7
4Son Heung-MinTottenham8.10.420.3011414.1
5David SilvaMan City8.00.380.3311013.7
6Alexis SánchezMan United11.70.410.271099.3
7Jesse LingardMan United6.10.450.1810617.4
8Anthony MartialMan United8.00.350.3410513.2
9Aaron RamseyArsenal6.90.380.2510114.6
10Leroy SanéMan City8.50.290.379711.4
11ArnautovicWest Ham7.00.390.169213.2
12Dele AlliTottenham8.90.300.299010.1
13Theo WalcottEverton7.20.360.188912.4
14Paul PogbaMan United7.90.330.178210.4
15RicharlisonWatford6.10.340.148113.2
16Kevin De BruyneMan City10.40.170.40787.5
17Mesut ÖzilArsenal9.30.180.38788.3
18Christian EriksenTottenham9.40.210.33788.2
19Eden HazardChelsea10.60.250.26777.3
20WillianChelsea6.90.230.287611.0
21Bernardo SilvaMan City7.40.260.227410.1
22Alex IwobiArsenal5.10.260.197113.9
23Wilfried ZahaCrystal Palace6.80.280.157010.3
24Riyad MahrezLeicester8.70.200.27697.9
25MkhitaryanArsenal7.80.110.36627.9
26Choupo-MotingStoke5.40.240.136011.2
27Christian AtsuNewcastle Utd4.80.210.155711.9
28PedroChelsea7.70.230.11567.3
29Moussa SissokoTottenham5.30.190.175510.5
30Cesc FàbregasChelsea6.80.110.30558.1
31Ox-ChamberlainLiverpool5.60.150.23559.8
32NarsinghSwansea4.70.190.165411.6
33Loftus-CheekCrystal Palace4.40.170.195412.3
34Juan MataMan United6.80.140.24547.9
35José IzquierdoBrighton5.90.190.15539.0
36Xherdan ShaqiriStoke6.30.150.21528.3
37Dusan TadicSouthampton6.20.150.20518.3
38Chris BruntWBA5.00.050.365110.1
39André AyewSwansea6.80.240.04507.4
40Jordon IbeBournemouth4.80.150.195010.5
41Jason PuncheonCrystal Palace4.40.220.075011.3
42KnockaertBrighton5.50.180.13498.9
43Pascal GroßBrighton5.90.070.31498.2
44Ward-ProwseSouthampton5.10.120.21479.2
45Nathan RedmondSouthampton5.90.100.24467.9
46Tom InceHuddersfield5.50.210.05468.3
47Junior StanislasBournemouth5.90.170.11457.6
48Ilkay GündoganMan City5.30.130.17448.3
49Matt RitchieNewcastle Utd5.40.080.25448.1
50Manuel LanziniWest Ham6.60.120.18436.6

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

RankPlayerClubVal £mNPxG90xA90Proj PtsPts/£m
1Gabriel JesusMan City9.90.870.1114514.6
2Sergio AgüeroMan City11.90.700.2913911.7
3Harry KaneTottenham12.90.810.1113610.5
4Charlie AustinSouthampton5.90.730.0311419.4
5Álvaro MorataChelsea10.40.630.1511310.9
6Oumar NiasseEverton4.90.570.1210020.5
7Shinji OkazakiLeicester5.30.590.089918.6
8LacazetteArsenal10.20.510.16969.4
9Romelu LukakuMan United11.20.490.16938.3
10Daniel SturridgeWBA7.90.470.158911.2
11Roberto FirminoLiverpool9.40.320.30838.8
12Dwight GayleNewcastle Utd6.10.450.108013.1
13Marcus RashfordMan United7.30.300.308010.9
14Andre GrayWatford6.30.420.127812.3
15Christian BentekeCrystal Palace7.60.400.137610.0
16Danny WelbeckArsenal7.30.380.12719.8
17Peter CrouchStoke4.80.260.256814.2
18Jermain DefoeBournemouth7.60.350.07618.1
19Tammy AbrahamSwansea5.40.340.076011.0
20ChicharitoWest Ham6.70.310.08568.4
21Ayoze PérezMan United5.20.190.235510.6
22Sam VokesBurnley5.70.260.13549.5
23Glenn MurrayBrighton5.80.330.04559.4
24JoseluNewcastle Utd5.50.300.07549.7
25Callum WilsonBournemouth5.90.290.08539.0
26Ashley BarnesBurnley5.20.290.06519.8
27Steve MounieHuddersfield5.70.260.09508.7
28Chris WoodBurnley6.20.300.03497.9
29Jamie VardyLeicester8.70.240.10485.5
30Calvert-LewinEverton5.10.230.10469.1
31Mame DioufStoke5.30.250.06458.5
32Salomón RondónWBA6.00.250.05447.3
33Joshua KingBournemouth7.00.170.15436.1
34Collin QuanerHuddersfield4.60.110.22429.1
35Wayne RooneyEverton7.20.210.08415.7
36Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.150.13386.0
37Robson-KanuWBA4.90.210.04367.4
38Jay RodriguezWBA5.40.190.06366.6
39Shane LongSouthampton5.60.170.07346.0
40Jordan AyewSwansea5.40.170.06336.1
41Laurent DepoitreHuddersfield5.20.150.08326.1

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £107m so not achievable. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs picked by defensive strength

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £5.0m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:




fpl underlying stats gw30

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1 thought on “FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals”

  1. Kolasinac was an absolute must have in the earlier part of the season. I can’t understand how he got dropped from the starting 11.

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