FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW30 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW29.   We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary.  

 FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW29 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW29 review




BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Tottenham 2 2
3 Chelsea 4 3
4 Liverpool 3 4
5 Manchester United 5 8
6 West Bromwich Albion 7 11
7 Brighton 11 6
8 Leicester 12 7
9 Arsenal 10 9
10 Southampton 8 12
11 Huddersfield 9 13
12 Burnley 15 10
13 Crystal Palace 14 14
14 Watford 20 5
15 Newcastle United 13 16
16 Swansea 17 15
17 West Ham 6 20
18 Everton 16 18
19 Stoke 18 17
20 Bournemouth 19 19

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Liverpool 3 2
3 Tottenham 4 3
4 Arsenal 2 8
5 Manchester United 5 4
6 Chelsea 7 5
7 Crystal Palace 6 11
8 Leicester 8 9
9 Watford 13 7
10 Newcastle United 17 6
11 Southampton 9 13
12 Everton 11 12
13 West Ham 18 10
14 Stoke 12 16
15 Brighton 10 19
16 Bournemouth 14 14
17 West Bromwich Albion 15 17
18 Huddersfield 19 15
19 Swansea 16 20
20 Burnley 20 18

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank Player Club Val £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts
1 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.8 0.09 0.19 42
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.2 0.13 0.10 41
3 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.4 0.13 0.09 40
4 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.10 0.11 35
5 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.6 0.08 0.14 34
6 James Milner Liverpool 6.0 0.08 0.14 34
7 Eric Bailly Man United 6.0 0.13 0.02 32
8 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.12 0.03 31
9 Ciaran Clark Newcastle Utd 4.4 0.11 0.05 31
10 Robertson Liverpool 4.9 0.03 0.20 30
11 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 6.0 0.08 0.10 30
12 Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.08 0.10 30
13 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.6 0.08 0.10 30
14 Maya Yoshida Southampton 4.6 0.11 0.03 29
15 van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.07 0.11 29
16 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.04 27
17 Craig Dawson WBA 4.8 0.10 0.04 27
18 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.3 0.02 0.20 27
19 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.5 0.05 0.14 27
20 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.09 0.04 25
21 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.02 0.18 25
22 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
23 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.03 0.16 25
24 Nicolás Otamendi Man City 6.9 0.10 0.01 24
25 John Stones Man City 5.3 0.10 0.00 23
26 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.09 0.02 23
27 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.10 23
28 Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.3 0.03 0.14 23
29 Kevin Long Burnley 4.1 0.03 0.14 23
30 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.09 0.01 22
31 Kyle Walker Man City 6.6 0.01 0.17 22
32 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.05 0.08 21
33 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.1 0.08 0.02 21
34 Wes Morgan Leicester 4.4 0.08 0.02 21
35 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.07 0.04 21
36 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.07 0.04 21
37 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.11 19
38 César Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.9 0.02 0.13 19
39 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
40 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.7 0.07 0.01 17
41 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.2 0.07 0.01 17
42 Zanka Huddersfield 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
43 Sebastian Prödl Watford 4.3 0.06 0.03 17
44 Ben Chilwell Leicester 4.3 0.02 0.10 16
45 Jack Stephens Southampton 4.5 0.06 0.01 15
46 Jamaal Lascelles Newcastle Utd 4.7 0.06 0.01 15
47 Tommy Smith Huddersfield 4.7 0.01 0.11 15
48 Schindler Huddersfield 4.6 0.02 0.09 15
49 Cédric Soares Southampton 4.7 0.03 0.07 15

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank Player Club Val £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts Pts/£m
1 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 10.6 0.74 0.26 170 16.1
2 Raheem Sterling Man City 8.7 0.57 0.31 144 16.5
3 Sadio Mané Liverpool 9.4 0.50 0.21 119 12.7
4 Son Heung-Min Tottenham 8.1 0.42 0.30 114 14.1
5 David Silva Man City 8.0 0.38 0.33 110 13.7
6 Alexis Sánchez Man United 11.7 0.41 0.27 109 9.3
7 Jesse Lingard Man United 6.1 0.45 0.18 106 17.4
8 Anthony Martial Man United 8.0 0.35 0.34 105 13.2
9 Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 6.9 0.38 0.25 101 14.6
10 Leroy Sané Man City 8.5 0.29 0.37 97 11.4
11 Arnautovic West Ham 7.0 0.39 0.16 92 13.2
12 Dele Alli Tottenham 8.9 0.30 0.29 90 10.1
13 Theo Walcott Everton 7.2 0.36 0.18 89 12.4
14 Paul Pogba Man United 7.9 0.33 0.17 82 10.4
15 Richarlison Watford 6.1 0.34 0.14 81 13.2
16 Kevin De Bruyne Man City 10.4 0.17 0.40 78 7.5
17 Mesut Özil Arsenal 9.3 0.18 0.38 78 8.3
18 Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9.4 0.21 0.33 78 8.2
19 Eden Hazard Chelsea 10.6 0.25 0.26 77 7.3
20 Willian Chelsea 6.9 0.23 0.28 76 11.0
21 Bernardo Silva Man City 7.4 0.26 0.22 74 10.1
22 Alex Iwobi Arsenal 5.1 0.26 0.19 71 13.9
23 Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 6.8 0.28 0.15 70 10.3
24 Riyad Mahrez Leicester 8.7 0.20 0.27 69 7.9
25 Mkhitaryan Arsenal 7.8 0.11 0.36 62 7.9
26 Choupo-Moting Stoke 5.4 0.24 0.13 60 11.2
27 Christian Atsu Newcastle Utd 4.8 0.21 0.15 57 11.9
28 Pedro Chelsea 7.7 0.23 0.11 56 7.3
29 Moussa Sissoko Tottenham 5.3 0.19 0.17 55 10.5
30 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea 6.8 0.11 0.30 55 8.1
31 Ox-Chamberlain Liverpool 5.6 0.15 0.23 55 9.8
32 Narsingh Swansea 4.7 0.19 0.16 54 11.6
33 Loftus-Cheek Crystal Palace 4.4 0.17 0.19 54 12.3
34 Juan Mata Man United 6.8 0.14 0.24 54 7.9
35 José Izquierdo Brighton 5.9 0.19 0.15 53 9.0
36 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke 6.3 0.15 0.21 52 8.3
37 Dusan Tadic Southampton 6.2 0.15 0.20 51 8.3
38 Chris Brunt WBA 5.0 0.05 0.36 51 10.1
39 André Ayew Swansea 6.8 0.24 0.04 50 7.4
40 Jordon Ibe Bournemouth 4.8 0.15 0.19 50 10.5
41 Jason Puncheon Crystal Palace 4.4 0.22 0.07 50 11.3
42 Knockaert Brighton 5.5 0.18 0.13 49 8.9
43 Pascal Groß Brighton 5.9 0.07 0.31 49 8.2
44 Ward-Prowse Southampton 5.1 0.12 0.21 47 9.2
45 Nathan Redmond Southampton 5.9 0.10 0.24 46 7.9
46 Tom Ince Huddersfield 5.5 0.21 0.05 46 8.3
47 Junior Stanislas Bournemouth 5.9 0.17 0.11 45 7.6
48 Ilkay Gündogan Man City 5.3 0.13 0.17 44 8.3
49 Matt Ritchie Newcastle Utd 5.4 0.08 0.25 44 8.1
50 Manuel Lanzini West Ham 6.6 0.12 0.18 43 6.6

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

Rank Player Club Val £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts Pts/£m
1 Gabriel Jesus Man City 9.9 0.87 0.11 145 14.6
2 Sergio Agüero Man City 11.9 0.70 0.29 139 11.7
3 Harry Kane Tottenham 12.9 0.81 0.11 136 10.5
4 Charlie Austin Southampton 5.9 0.73 0.03 114 19.4
5 Álvaro Morata Chelsea 10.4 0.63 0.15 113 10.9
6 Oumar Niasse Everton 4.9 0.57 0.12 100 20.5
7 Shinji Okazaki Leicester 5.3 0.59 0.08 99 18.6
8 Lacazette Arsenal 10.2 0.51 0.16 96 9.4
9 Romelu Lukaku Man United 11.2 0.49 0.16 93 8.3
10 Daniel Sturridge WBA 7.9 0.47 0.15 89 11.2
11 Roberto Firmino Liverpool 9.4 0.32 0.30 83 8.8
12 Dwight Gayle Newcastle Utd 6.1 0.45 0.10 80 13.1
13 Marcus Rashford Man United 7.3 0.30 0.30 80 10.9
14 Andre Gray Watford 6.3 0.42 0.12 78 12.3
15 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 7.6 0.40 0.13 76 10.0
16 Danny Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.38 0.12 71 9.8
17 Peter Crouch Stoke 4.8 0.26 0.25 68 14.2
18 Jermain Defoe Bournemouth 7.6 0.35 0.07 61 8.1
19 Tammy Abraham Swansea 5.4 0.34 0.07 60 11.0
20 Chicharito West Ham 6.7 0.31 0.08 56 8.4
21 Ayoze Pérez Man United 5.2 0.19 0.23 55 10.6
22 Sam Vokes Burnley 5.7 0.26 0.13 54 9.5
23 Glenn Murray Brighton 5.8 0.33 0.04 55 9.4
24 Joselu Newcastle Utd 5.5 0.30 0.07 54 9.7
25 Callum Wilson Bournemouth 5.9 0.29 0.08 53 9.0
26 Ashley Barnes Burnley 5.2 0.29 0.06 51 9.8
27 Steve Mounie Huddersfield 5.7 0.26 0.09 50 8.7
28 Chris Wood Burnley 6.2 0.30 0.03 49 7.9
29 Jamie Vardy Leicester 8.7 0.24 0.10 48 5.5
30 Calvert-Lewin Everton 5.1 0.23 0.10 46 9.1
31 Mame Diouf Stoke 5.3 0.25 0.06 45 8.5
32 Salomón Rondón WBA 6.0 0.25 0.05 44 7.3
33 Joshua King Bournemouth 7.0 0.17 0.15 43 6.1
34 Collin Quaner Huddersfield 4.6 0.11 0.22 42 9.1
35 Wayne Rooney Everton 7.2 0.21 0.08 41 5.7
36 Troy Deeney Watford 6.3 0.15 0.13 38 6.0
37 Robson-Kanu WBA 4.9 0.21 0.04 36 7.4
38 Jay Rodriguez WBA 5.4 0.19 0.06 36 6.6
39 Shane Long Southampton 5.6 0.17 0.07 34 6.0
40 Jordan Ayew Swansea 5.4 0.17 0.06 33 6.1
41 Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 5.2 0.15 0.08 32 6.1

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £107m so not achievable. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs picked by defensive strength

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £5.0m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:




fpl underlying stats gw30

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1 thought on “FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals”

  1. Kolasinac was an absolute must have in the earlier part of the season. I can’t understand how he got dropped from the starting 11.

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