FPL underlying stats GW31 - expected goals totals

X (Twitter)Facebook Reddit

Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW31 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW30. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW31 only xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW31 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the best expected goals/assists players for GW31 then go to the team at the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA		Home	Away
1	Manchester City	1	1
2	Tottenham	2	3
3	Chelsea	4	2
4	Liverpool	3	4
5	Manchester United	5	5
6	Leicester	11	6
7	WBA	9	10
8	Brighton	10	9
9	Arsenal	14	7
10	Southampton	6	13
11	Huddersfield	8	12
12	Burnley	15	11
13	Newcastle United	13	14
14	Watford	19	8
15	Crystal Palace	12	18
16	Swansea	17	15
17	West Ham	7	20
18	Everton	16	17
19	Stoke	18	16
20	Bournemouth	20	19

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank xG		Home	Away
1	Manchester City	1	1
2	Liverpool	3	2
3	Tottenham	4	3
4	Arsenal	2	9
5	Manchester United	5	4
6	Chelsea	6	5
7	Crystal Palace	7	10
8	Leicester	8	7
9	Watford	13	6
10	Newcastle United	16	8
11	Everton	10	12
12	Southampton	9	13
13	West Ham	19	11
14	Bournemouth	14	14
15	Brighton	11	19
16	Stoke	12	17
17	WBA	15	18
18	Huddersfield	18	16
19	Burnley	20	15
20	Swansea	17	20

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 13 March

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NP xG	xA	Proj Pts
1	Davide Zappacosta	Chelsea	5.9	0.14	0.11	44
2	Marcos Alonso	Chelsea	7.2	0.13	0.11	42
3	Sead Kolasinac	Arsenal	5.8	0.08	0.20	41
4	Victor Moses	Chelsea	6.5	0.13	0.09	40
5	Mamadou Sakho	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.15	0.03	38
6	Virgil van Dijk	Liverpool	5.6	0.10	0.13	38
7	Scott Dann	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.15	0.01	35
8	Miguel Britos	Watford	4.3	0.10	0.11	35
9	James Milner	Liverpool	6.0	0.07	0.16	34
10	Serge Aurier	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.19	33
11	Patrick van Aanholt	Crystal Palace	5.1	0.09	0.10	32
12	Joel Matip	Liverpool	5.4	0.12	0.03	31
13	Ben Davies	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.17	31
14	Ciaran Clark	Newcastle United	4.4	0.11	0.05	31
15	Eric Bailly	Manchester United	6.0	0.12	0.02	30
16	Nacho Monreal	Arsenal	5.5	0.08	0.10	30
17	Héctor Bellerín	Arsenal	5.9	0.08	0.10	30
18	Maya Yoshida	Southampton	4.6	0.11	0.03	29
19	Andrew Robertson	Liverpool	4.9	0.03	0.19	29
20	Harry Maguire	Leicester	5.6	0.05	0.14	27
21	Kieran Trippier	Tottenham	5.3	0.02	0.20	27
22	Daryl Janmaat	Watford	4.8	0.10	0.03	26
23	Nicolás Otamendi	Manchester City	6.4	0.10	0.02	25
24	Dejan Lovren	Liverpool	5.3	0.08	0.06	25
25	José Holebas	Watford	4.8	0.02	0.17	24
26	Ryan Shawcross	Stoke	4.8	0.10	0.01	24
27	Craig Dawson	WBA	4.8	0.09	0.03	24
28	Wesley Hoedt	Southampton	5.0	0.09	0.03	24
29	Kyle Walker	Manchester City	6.6	0.02	0.16	23
30	John Stones	Manchester City	5.3	0.10	0.00	23
31	Laurent Koscielny	Arsenal	6.0	0.09	0.02	23
32	Ryan Bertrand	Southampton	5.3	0.06	0.08	23
33	Kevin Long	Burnley	4.1	0.03	0.14	23
34	Lewis Dunk	Brighton	4.5	0.09	0.01	22
35	Danny Rose	Tottenham	6.4	0.06	0.07	22
36	Trent Alexander-Arnold	Liverpool	4.3	0.03	0.13	22
37	Alfie Mawson	Swansea	5.1	0.08	0.02	21
38	Wes Morgan	Leicester	4.4	0.08	0.02	21
39	Jonny Evans	WBA	4.9	0.07	0.04	21
40	Shane Duffy	Brighton	4.6	0.07	0.04	21
41	César Azpilicueta	Chelsea	6.9	0.02	0.13	19
42	Leighton Baines	Everton	5.6	0.03	0.11	19
43	David Luiz	Chelsea	5.7	0.08	0.00	18
44	Jeffrey Schlupp	Crystal Palace	4.7	0.05	0.06	18
45	Ragnar Klavan	Liverpool	4.2	0.07	0.01	17
46	Ahmed Hegazy	WBA	4.7	0.07	0.01	17
47	Zanka	Huddersfield	4.5	0.07	0.01	17
48	Sebastian Prödl	Watford	4.3	0.06	0.02	16

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NP xG	xA	Proj Pts	£Pts/m
1	Mohamed Salah	10.6	Liverpool	0.71	0.26	165	15.5
2	Raheem Sterling	8.6	Manchester City	0.56	0.30	141	16.3
3	Son Heung-Min	8.2	Tottenham	0.48	0.28	123	15.0
4	Sadio Mané	9.4	Liverpool	0.47	0.20	112	11.9
5	David Silva	8.0	Manchester City	0.39	0.32	111	13.8
6	Alexis Sánchez	11.6	Manchester United	0.39	0.29	107	9.2
7	Jesse Lingard	6.0	Manchester United	0.45	0.18	106	17.7
8	Anthony Martial	7.9	Manchester United	0.35	0.34	105	13.3
9	Aaron Ramsey	6.9	Arsenal	0.38	0.25	101	14.6
10	Leroy Sané	8.6	Manchester City	0.28	0.36	94	11.0
11	Dele Alli	8.9	Tottenham	0.30	0.29	90	10.1
12	Marko Arnautovic	7.0	West Ham	0.38	0.15	89	12.8
13	Eden Hazard	10.6	Chelsea	0.26	0.29	82	7.8
14	Paul Pogba	7.8	Manchester United	0.33	0.17	82	10.5
15	Willian	7.0	Chelsea	0.25	0.30	82	11.7
16	Christian Eriksen	9.4	Tottenham	0.21	0.36	81	8.6
17	Mesut Özil	9.3	Arsenal	0.19	0.38	79	8.5
18	Theo Walcott	7.1	Arsenal, Everton	0.32	0.16	79	11.1
19	Richarlison	6.0	Watford	0.33	0.14	79	13.1
20	Kevin De Bruyne	10.4	Manchester City	0.16	0.40	76	7.3
21	Bernardo Silva	7.5	Manchester City	0.26	0.21	73	9.8
22	Wilfried Zaha	6.8	Crystal Palace	0.27	0.18	72	10.6
23	Riyad Mahrez	8.8	Leicester	0.21	0.27	71	8.0
24	Alex Iwobi	5.1	Arsenal	0.25	0.18	68	13.3
25	Henrikh Mkhitaryan	7.7	Arsenal	0.11	0.40	67	8.6
26	Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting	5.4	Stoke	0.23	0.13	59	10.8
27	Juan Mata	6.8	Manchester United	0.17	0.23	59	8.6
28	Moussa Sissoko	5.3	Tottenham	0.19	0.18	57	10.7
29	Pedro	7.7	Chelsea	0.23	0.11	56	7.3
30	Christian Atsu	4.8	Newcastle United	0.21	0.14	56	11.6
31	Luciano Narsingh	4.7	Swansea	0.19	0.16	54	11.6
32	Ruben Loftus-Cheek	4.4	Crystal Palace	0.17	0.19	54	12.3
33	Junior Stanislas	5.9	Bournemouth	0.21	0.12	54	9.1
34	Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain	5.6	Liverpool	0.15	0.22	54	9.6
35	Cesc Fàbregas	6.8	Chelsea	0.10	0.29	52	7.7
36	Dusan Tadic	6.2	Southampton	0.15	0.20	51	8.3
37	Jordon Ibe	4.7	Bournemouth	0.15	0.19	50	10.7
38	Jason Puncheon	4.4	Crystal Palace	0.22	0.07	50	11.3
39	Xherdan Shaqiri	6.3	Stoke	0.14	0.20	49	7.8
40	Tom Ince	5.5	Huddersfield	0.22	0.06	49	8.8
41	José Izquierdo	5.9	Brighton	0.17	0.14	48	8.2
42	Chris Brunt	5.0	WBA	0.05	0.34	48	9.7
43	Pascal Groß	6.0	Brighton	0.07	0.30	48	7.9
44	Anthony Knockaert	5.5	Brighton	0.17	0.13	47	8.6
45	Roberto Pereyra	5.8	Watford	0.15	0.16	47	8.1
46	André Ayew	6.8	Swansea	0.22	0.04	46	6.8
47	James Ward-Prowse	5.1	Southampton	0.11	0.22	46	9.0
48	Nathan Redmond	5.9	Southampton	0.10	0.23	45	7.7
49	Manuel Lanzini	6.6	West Ham	0.13	0.18	45	6.9

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NP xG	xA	Proj Pts	£Pts/m
1	Olivier Giroud	8.2	Chelsea	1.13	0.36	213	26.0
2	Sergio Agüero	11.9	Manchester City	0.70	0.29	139	11.7
3	Gabriel Jesus	9.9	Manchester City	0.81	0.13	138	13.9
4	Harry Kane	12.9	Tottenham	0.80	0.11	134	10.4
5	Charlie Austin	5.8	Southampton	0.73	0.03	114	19.7
6	Álvaro Morata	10.4	Chelsea	0.63	0.14	112	10.7
7	Oumar Niasse	4.9	Everton	0.57	0.12	100	20.5
8	Alexandre Lacazette	10.2	Arsenal	0.51	0.16	96	9.4
9	Shinji Okazaki	5.3	Leicester	0.56	0.07	93	17.6
10	Romelu Lukaku	11.2	Manchester United	0.47	0.16	90	8.0
11	Daniel Sturridge	7.9	WBA	0.47	0.15	89	11.2
12	Dwight Gayle	6.1	Newcastle United	0.43	0.14	81	13.3
13	Roberto Firmino	9.4	Liverpool	0.31	0.29	80	8.5
14	Marcus Rashford	7.3	Manchester United	0.30	0.28	78	10.6
15	Andre Gray	6.3	Watford	0.42	0.12	78	12.3
16	Danny Welbeck	7.3	Arsenal	0.38	0.12	71	9.8
17	Peter Crouch	4.8	Stoke	0.25	0.25	67	13.9
18	Chris Wood	6.2	Burnley	0.39	0.04	64	10.3
19	Jermain Defoe	7.6	Bournemouth	0.34	0.07	60	7.9
20	Tammy Abraham	5.4	Swansea	0.34	0.07	60	11.0
21	Chicharito	6.7	West Ham	0.31	0.08	56	8.4
22	Sam Vokes	5.7	Burnley	0.26	0.13	54	9.5
23	Joselu	5.5	Newcastle United	0.30	0.07	54	9.7
24	Steve Mounie	5.8	Huddersfield	0.28	0.09	53	9.1
25	Ayoze Pérez	5.2	Newcastle United	0.19	0.21	53	10.2
26	Glenn Murray	5.9	Brighton	0.31	0.04	52	8.8
27	Callum Wilson	5.9	Bournemouth	0.27	0.08	50	8.5
28	Ashley Barnes	5.3	Burnley	0.28	0.06	49	9.3
29	Jamie Vardy	8.7	Leicester	0.24	0.09	47	5.4
30	Mame Biram Diouf	5.2	Stoke	0.25	0.06	45	8.6
31	Dominic Calvert-Lewin	5.0	Everton	0.22	0.10	45	9.0
32	Salomón Rondón	6.0	WBA	0.25	0.05	44	7.3
33	Joshua King	7.0	Bournemouth	0.17	0.14	42	6.0
34	Collin Quaner	4.6	Huddersfield	0.11	0.22	42	9.1
35	Hal Robson-Kanu	4.9	WBA	0.21	0.04	36	7.4
36	André Carrillo	6.4	Watford	0.11	0.17	36	5.6
37	Jay Rodriguez	5.3	WBA	0.19	0.06	36	6.7
38	Troy Deeney	6.3	Watford	0.14	0.12	35	5.5
39	Andy Carroll	5.7	West Ham	0.18	0.06	34	6.0
40	Shane Long	5.6	Southampton	0.17	0.07	34	6.0
41	Jordan Ayew	5.4	Swansea	0.17	0.06	33	6.1
42	Laurent Depoitre	5.1	Huddersfield	0.15	0.08	32	6.3
43	Wilfried Bony	5.6	Swansea	0.19	0.02	31	5.6
44	Tomer Hemed	4.7	Brighton	0.18	0.01	29	6.1
45	Manolo Gabbiadini	6.2	Southampton	0.10	0.04	20	3.2

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM FOR GW31 ONLY

Here I pick a team for GW31 only. An expected goals/assists free hit team if you like. It is stats over the season and it doesn’t take into account the quality of the opponent

For the defence I took the 7 teams with the best clean sheet prospects (obviously that’s the 8 teams excluding Watford). I have then looked for the 5 best attacking defenders and then the 6th and 7th become the GKs. Hopefully that makes sense.

That strategy for defence means only 2 attacking Liverpool players so I have just picked the 2 with the most projected points (Mane and Salah) under the assumptions above.

The rest are the players with the most projected points in the 8 teams with regard to gametime security.

Minimum 500 minutes played applies (except I made an exception for Coleman as I wanted to compare him to Baines). I haven’t included Tosun though as to new to the league.

Hope that’s all clear

GEEK LEAGUES

Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511

X (Twitter)Facebook Reddit

Cookie	Duration	Description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement	1 year	The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics	1 year	This cookies is set by GDPR Cookie Consent WordPress Plugin. The cookie is used to remember the user consent for the cookies under the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary	1 year	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance	1 year	This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
gdpr_status	6 months 2 days	This cookie is set by the provider Media.net. This cookie is used to check the status whether the user has accepted the cookie consent box. It also helps in not showing the cookie consent box upon re-entry to the website.
ls_smartpush	2 months	This cookie is set by the provider Litespeed Server. This cookie allows the server to store the settings and to improve performance of the site.
sessionId	session	This cookie is used by the website to store the user's session ID.
__cfduid	1 month	The cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information.

Cookie	Duration	Description
fh	3 months	This domain of this cookie is owned by 360yields. It is used to track views for reporting to client, impression counter.
sl		This cookie is used to enable the LinkedIn sign in functionality and also to gather LinkedIn advertising analytics.
UserID1	3 months	The cookie sets a unique anonymous ID for a website visitor. This ID is used to continue to identify users across different sessions and track their activities on the website. The data collected is used for analysis.
_ga	2 years	This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors.
_gid	1 day	This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form.
__gads	1 year 24 days	This cookie is set by Google and stored under the name dounleclick.com. This cookie is used to track how many times users see a particular advert which helps in measuring the success of the campaign and calculate the revenue generated by the campaign. These cookies can only be read from the domain that it is set on so it will not track any data while browsing through another sites.

Cookie	Duration	Description
am-uid	2 years	This cookie is set by Admixer. The cookie is used to collect visitor behaviour from mutiple websites for serving them with relevant ads based on their preference.
audience	1 year	The domain of this cookie is owned by Spotxchange. This cookie is used for targeting and advertising.
done_redirects104	1 day	This cookie is set by the provider Onaudience.com. This cookie is used for targeting and advertising purposes.
everest_g_v2	1 year	The cookie is set under eversttech.net domain. The purpose of the cookie is to map clicks to other events on the client's website.
IDE	1 year 24 days	Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile.
impx	5 days	This cookie is provided by Yieldoptimiser.com. This cookie is used to serve ads to the users based on their interest on other websites.
impx_a	session	This cookie is provided by Yieldoptimiser.com. This cookie is used for advertising purposes.
lcai9h	3 months	This cookie is used for serving ads. It is used to enable bidding process, to load campaign impressions.
lcri5m	3 months	This cookie is used for serving relevant ads to the user based on the user behaviour. Cookie collects and store the data of the user. This data is used to optimize the website and to show relevant ads. It also load creative.
mc	1 year 1 month	This cookie is associated with Quantserve to track anonymously how a user interact with the website.
TDCPM	1 year	The cookie is set by CloudFare service to store a unique ID to identify a returning users device which then is used for targeted advertising.
TDID	1 year	The cookie is set by CloudFare service to store a unique ID to identify a returning users device which then is used for targeted advertising.
test_cookie	15 minutes	This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies.
tuuid	3 months	This cookie is set by .bidswitch.net. The cookies stores a unique ID for the purpose of the determining what adverts the users have seen if you have visited any of the advertisers website. The information is used for determining when and how often users will see a certain banner.
tuuid_lu	3 months	This cookie is set by .bidswitch.net. The cookies stores a unique ID for the purpose of the determining what adverts the users have seen if you have visited any of the advertisers website. The information is used for determining when and how often users will see a certain banner.
uuid	1 year 27 days	To optimize ad relevance by collecting visitor data from multiple websites such as what pages have been loaded.
uuid2	3 months	This cookies is set by AppNexus. The cookies stores information that helps in distinguishing between devices and browsers. This information us used to select advertisements served by the platform and assess the performance of the advertisement and attribute payment for those advertisements.
_cc_aud	8 months 26 days	The cookie is set by crwdcntrl.net. The purpose of the cookie is to collect statistical information in an anonymous form about the visitors of the website. The data collected include number of visits, average time spent on the website, and the what pages have been loaded. These data are then used to segment audiences based on the geographical location, demographic, and user interest provide relevant content and for advertisers for targeted advertising.
_cc_cc	session	The cookie is set by crwdcntrl.net. The purpose of the cookie is to collect statistical information in an anonymous form about the visitors of the website. The data collected include number of visits, average time spent on the website, and the what pages have been loaded. These data are then used to segment audiences based on the geographical location, demographic, and user interest provide relevant content and for advertisers for targeted advertising.
_cc_dc	8 months 26 days	The cookie is set by crwdcntrl.net. The purpose of the cookie is to collect statistical information in an anonymous form about the visitors of the website. The data collected include number of visits, average time spent on the website, and the what pages have been loaded. These data are then used to segment audiences based on the geographical location, demographic, and user interest provide relevant content and for advertisers for targeted advertising.
_cc_id	8 months 26 days	The cookie is set by crwdcntrl.net. The purpose of the cookie is to collect statistical information in an anonymous form about the visitors of the website. The data collected include number of visits, average time spent on the website, and the what pages have been loaded. These data are then used to segment audiences based on the geographical location, demographic, and user interest provide relevant content and for advertisers for targeted advertising.

Cookie	Duration	Description
advst_uid_11	1 year	No description
advst_uid_29	1 year	No description
ANUSERCOOKIE	3 months	No description
bsw_origin_init	past	No description
C	1 month	No description
cookie	1 year	No description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional	1 year	The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others	1 year	No description
custom_data	past	No description
DISPATCHER	session	No description
DYNAMIC	session	No description
LOG	session	No description
mkuuid	5 months 27 days	No description
pxId	session	No description
sddan_cmp_third_party	2 hours	No description
TestIfCookie	session	No description
TestIfCookieP	1 year 1 month	No description
u	2 years	The purpose of this cookie is targeting and marketing.The domain of this cookie is related with a company called Bombora in USA.
UID	1 month	No description
_gat_gtag_UA_32944198_1	1 minute	No description