Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW32 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW31. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW32 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.
FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW32 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the best expected goals/assists players for GW32 then go to the team at the end of the article.
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK
Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals
TEAM DEFENCE
Ovr Rank xGA | Home | Away | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Tottenham | 2 | 3 |
3 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
4 | Liverpool | 3 | 4 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 5 |
6 | Leicester | 10 | 6 |
7 | Brighton | 9 | 8 |
8 | Arsenal | 13 | 7 |
9 | WBA | 8 | 10 |
10 | Southampton | 6 | 13 |
11 | Burnley | 14 | 9 |
12 | Huddersfield | 15 | 11 |
13 | Newcastle United | 12 | 14 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 11 | 17 |
15 | Watford | 18 | 12 |
16 | Swansea | 17 | 15 |
17 | West Ham | 7 | 20 |
18 | Everton | 16 | 18 |
19 | Stoke | 19 | 16 |
20 | Bournemouth | 20 | 19 |
Team Attack
Ovr Rank xG | Home | Away | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 |
3 | Tottenham | 4 | 3 |
4 | Arsenal | 2 | 10 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 4 |
6 | Chelsea | 6 | 5 |
7 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 8 |
8 | Leicester | 8 | 7 |
9 | Watford | 14 | 6 |
10 | Everton | 10 | 11 |
11 | Newcastle United | 16 | 9 |
12 | Southampton | 9 | 14 |
13 | West Ham | 19 | 12 |
14 | Bournemouth | 13 | 15 |
15 | Stoke | 12 | 18 |
16 | WBA | 15 | 13 |
17 | Brighton | 11 | 19 |
18 | Huddersfield | 18 | 17 |
19 | Burnley | 20 | 16 |
20 | Swansea | 17 | 20 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any
Player Stat abbreviations
Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 27 March
NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played
xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played
ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.
Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.
Defenders attack ranking
Rank | Player | Team | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Proj Pts |
1 | Davide Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 44 |
2 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 42 |
3 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.8 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 41 |
4 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.5 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 40 |
5 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
6 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 35 |
7 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.7 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 34 |
8 | James Milner | Liverpool | 6.0 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 33 |
9 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 33 |
10 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
11 | Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
12 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 31 |
13 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 4.4 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
14 | Eric Bailly | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 30 |
15 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
16 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.5 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
17 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 5.0 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 29 |
18 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
19 | Harry Maguire | Leicester | 5.6 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 27 |
20 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.2 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 27 |
21 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 26 |
22 | Craig Dawson | WBA | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 26 |
23 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
24 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
25 | Ryan Shawcross | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 24 |
26 | Wesley Hoedt | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 24 |
27 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
28 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
29 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
30 | James Tomkins | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
31 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 23 |
32 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 23 |
33 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 22 |
34 | Danny Rose | Tottenham | 6.4 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 22 |
35 | Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.3 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 22 |
36 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 21 |
37 | Wes Morgan | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 21 |
38 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
39 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
40 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 6.9 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 19 |
41 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 19 |
42 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
43 | Jeffrey Schlupp | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
44 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
45 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.7 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
46 | Zanka | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
47 | Sebastian Prödl | Watford | 4.3 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 16 |
48 | Aaron Cresswell | West Ham | 5.0 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
49 | Jack Stephens | Southampton | 4.5 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
50 | Jamaal Lascelles | Newcastle United | 4.7 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
51 | Ben Mee | Burnley | 4.9 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
52 | Ben Chilwell | Leicester | 4.3 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
53 | Arthur Masuaku | West Ham | 4.2 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
54 | Tommy Smith | Huddersfield | 4.7 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
55 | Cédric Soares | Southampton | 4.7 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 15 |
Midfield attack ranking
Rank | Player | Team | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Proj Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.7 | 0.73 | 0.26 | 168 | 15.7 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 8.6 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 142 | 16.5 |
3 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.3 | 0.48 | 0.28 | 123 | 14.8 |
4 | David Silva | Manchester City | 8.1 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 111 | 13.7 |
5 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.5 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 109 | 11.5 |
6 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester United | 11.5 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 107 | 9.3 |
7 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 106 | 17.7 |
8 | Anthony Martial | Manchester United | 7.9 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 105 | 13.3 |
9 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 6.9 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 101 | 14.6 |
10 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.6 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 94 | 11.0 |
11 | Theo Walcott | Everton | 7.1 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 92 | 13.0 |
12 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 8.9 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 90 | 10.1 |
13 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 6.9 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 89 | 12.9 |
14 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.6 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 82 | 7.8 |
15 | Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 7.8 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 82 | 10.5 |
16 | Willian | Chelsea | 7.1 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 82 | 11.5 |
17 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.4 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 81 | 8.6 |
18 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 79 | 8.5 |
19 | Richarlison | Watford | 6.0 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 78 | 12.9 |
20 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.4 | 0.16 | 0.40 | 76 | 7.3 |
21 | Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 7.4 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 73 | 9.9 |
22 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 71 | 7.9 |
23 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.8 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 70 | 10.3 |
24 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 68 | 13.3 |
25 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.7 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 67 | 8.6 |
26 | Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 62 | 11.5 |
27 | Juan Mata | Manchester United | 6.8 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 59 | 8.6 |
28 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 57 | 10.7 |
29 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 56 | 7.3 |
30 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 56 | 11.6 |
31 | Luciano Narsingh | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 54 | 11.6 |
32 | Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 54 | 12.3 |
33 | Oxlade-Chamberlain | Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 54 | 9.6 |
34 | Junior Stanislas | Bournemouth | 6.0 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 52 | 8.7 |
35 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 52 | 7.7 |
36 | Yannick Bolasie | Everton | 6.4 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 51 | 8.0 |
37 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 51 | 8.3 |
38 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 | 11.3 |
39 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 49 | 123.5 |
40 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 49 | 8.8 |
41 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 48 | 8.2 |
42 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 48 | 7.9 |
43 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 47 | 10.0 |
44 | Anthony Knockaert | Brighton | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 | 8.6 |
45 | Roberto Pereyra | Watford | 5.8 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 47 | 8.1 |
46 | André Ayew | Swansea | 6.8 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 46 | 6.8 |
47 | Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 5.1 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 46 | 9.0 |
48 | Manuel Lanzini | West Ham | 6.6 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 45 | 6.9 |
49 | Nathan Redmond | Southampton | 5.9 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 45 | 7.7 |
50 | Ilkay Gündogan | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 44 | 8.3 |
Forwards attack ranking
Rank | Player | Team | £m | NPxG90 | xA | Proj Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Olivier Giroud | Chelsea | 8.2 | 1.13 | 0.36 | 213 | 26.0 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.7 | 0.70 | 0.29 | 139 | 11.9 |
3 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 10.0 | 0.81 | 0.13 | 138 | 13.8 |
4 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.7 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 134 | 10.6 |
5 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.8 | 0.73 | 0.03 | 114 | 19.7 |
6 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.14 | 112 | 10.7 |
7 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.8 | 0.57 | 0.12 | 100 | 20.9 |
8 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.51 | 0.16 | 96 | 9.4 |
9 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.56 | 0.07 | 93 | 17.6 |
10 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 11.4 | 0.47 | 0.16 | 90 | 7.9 |
11 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 89 | 11.2 |
12 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle United | 6.1 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 81 | 13.3 |
13 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.7 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 81 | 8.3 |
14 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester United | 7.4 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 78 | 10.5 |
15 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 | 12.3 |
16 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.7 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 74 | 9.6 |
17 | Danny Welbeck | Arsenal | 7.3 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 71 | 9.8 |
18 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.2 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 64 | 10.3 |
19 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 63 | 13.1 |
20 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 60 | 11.0 |
21 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.34 | 0.06 | 59 | 7.7 |
22 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.0 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 59 | 11.7 |
23 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 56 | 8.4 |
24 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 54 | 9.5 |
25 | Joselu | Newcastle United | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 54 | 9.7 |
26 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle United | 5.2 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 53 | 10.2 |
27 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 52 | 8.6 |
28 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.9 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 51 | 8.7 |
29 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.3 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 49 | 9.3 |
30 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 6.0 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 49 | 8.1 |
31 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.8 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 47 | 5.3 |
32 | Salomón Rondón | West Bromwich Albion | 6.0 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 46 | 7.7 |
33 | Mame Biram Diouf | Stoke | 5.2 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 45 | 8.6 |
34 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 40 | 5.8 |
35 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.2 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 40 | 5.6 |
36 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 39 | 8.5 |
37 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.3 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 39 | 7.3 |
38 | Hal Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 38 | 7.8 |
39 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.7 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 | 6.0 |
40 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 34 | 6.0 |
41 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 33 | 5.3 |
42 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 33 | 6.2 |
43 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.1 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 32 | 6.3 |
44 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.6 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 | 5.6 |
45 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.7 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 | 6.1 |
46 | Manolo Gabbiadini | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 20 | 3.2 |
The XG/XA Team
Here’s a team made up of the 8 teams that have a DGW34. Those being. Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth
I’ve kept Salah in as most people will.
In defence I’ve gone for Lloris as GK as only Vertonghen is gametime certain and has minimal attacking threat.
In midfield and attack I’ve tried to go for 1 player from each of the teams looking at the ranking and value for money factor
Here’s the team:
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