FPL underlying stats GW32 – expected goals totals

Fantasy Premier League, Gameweek analysis

Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW32 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW31. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW32  xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW32 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the best expected goals/assists players for GW32 then go to the team at the end of the article.




BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA HomeAway
1Manchester City11
2Tottenham23
3Chelsea42
4Liverpool34
5Manchester United55
6Leicester106
7Brighton98
8Arsenal137
9WBA810
10Southampton613
11Burnley149
12Huddersfield1511
13Newcastle United1214
14Crystal Palace1117
15Watford1812
16Swansea1715
17West Ham720
18Everton1618
19Stoke1916
20Bournemouth2019

Team Attack

Ovr Rank xG HomeAway
1Manchester City11
2Liverpool32
3Tottenham43
4Arsenal210
5Manchester United54
6Chelsea65
7Crystal Palace78
8Leicester87
9Watford146
10Everton1011
11Newcastle United169
12Southampton914
13West Ham1912
14Bournemouth1315
15Stoke1218
16WBA1513
17Brighton1119
18Huddersfield1817
19Burnley2016
20Swansea1720

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 27 March

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

Defenders attack ranking

RankPlayerTeam£mNPxG90xAProj Pts
1Davide ZappacostaChelsea5.90.140.1144
2Marcos AlonsoChelsea7.20.130.1142
3Sead KolasinacArsenal5.80.080.2041
4Victor MosesChelsea6.50.130.0940
5Scott DannCrystal Palace4.60.150.0135
6Mamadou SakhoCrystal Palace4.60.140.0335
7Virgil van DijkLiverpool5.70.090.1234
8James MilnerLiverpool6.00.070.1533
9Serge AurierTottenham5.90.050.1933
10Miguel BritosWatford4.30.090.1032
11Patrick van AanholtCrystal Palace5.10.090.1032
12Ben DaviesTottenham5.90.050.1731
13Ciaran ClarkNewcastle United4.40.110.0531
14Eric BaillyManchester United6.00.120.0230
15Héctor BellerínArsenal5.90.080.1030
16Nacho MonrealArsenal5.50.080.1030
17Andrew RobertsonLiverpool5.00.020.2129
18Joel MatipLiverpool5.40.110.0329
19Harry MaguireLeicester5.60.050.1427
20Kieran TrippierTottenham5.20.020.2027
21Daryl JanmaatWatford4.80.100.0326
22Craig DawsonWBA4.80.100.0326
23Nicolás OtamendiManchester City6.40.100.0225
24Dejan LovrenLiverpool5.30.080.0625
25Ryan ShawcrossStoke4.80.100.0124
26Wesley HoedtSouthampton5.00.090.0324
27José HolebasWatford4.80.020.1623
28Kyle WalkerManchester City6.60.020.1623
29John StonesManchester City5.30.100.0023
30James TomkinsCrystal Palace4.40.100.0023
31Laurent KoscielnyArsenal6.00.090.0223
32Ryan BertrandSouthampton5.30.060.0823
33Lewis DunkBrighton4.50.090.0122
34Danny RoseTottenham6.40.060.0722
35Alexander-ArnoldLiverpool4.30.030.1322
36Alfie MawsonSwansea5.10.080.0221
37Wes MorganLeicester4.40.080.0221
38Jonny EvansWBA4.90.070.0421
39Shane DuffyBrighton4.60.070.0421
40César AzpilicuetaChelsea6.90.020.1319
41Leighton BainesEverton5.60.030.1119
42David LuizChelsea5.70.080.0018
43Jeffrey SchluppCrystal Palace4.70.050.0618
44Ragnar KlavanLiverpool4.10.070.0117
45Ahmed HegazyWBA4.70.070.0117
46ZankaHuddersfield4.50.070.0117
47Sebastian PrödlWatford4.30.060.0216
48Aaron CresswellWest Ham5.00.010.1216
49Jack StephensSouthampton4.50.060.0115
50Jamaal LascellesNewcastle United4.70.060.0115
51Ben MeeBurnley4.90.060.0115
52Ben ChilwellLeicester4.30.010.1115
53Arthur MasuakuWest Ham4.20.010.1115
54Tommy SmithHuddersfield4.70.010.1115
55Cédric SoaresSouthampton4.70.030.0715

Midfield attack ranking

RankPlayerTeam£mNPxG90xAProj PtsPts/£m
1Mohamed SalahLiverpool10.70.730.2616815.7
2Raheem SterlingManchester City8.60.560.3114216.5
3Son Heung-MinTottenham8.30.480.2812314.8
4David SilvaManchester City8.10.390.3211113.7
5Sadio ManéLiverpool9.50.450.2110911.5
6Alexis SánchezManchester United11.50.390.291079.3
7Jesse LingardManchester United6.00.450.1810617.7
8Anthony MartialManchester United7.90.350.3410513.3
9Aaron RamseyArsenal6.90.380.2510114.6
10Leroy SanéManchester City8.60.280.369411.0
11Theo WalcottEverton7.10.330.269213.0
12Dele AlliTottenham8.90.300.299010.1
13Marko ArnautovicWest Ham6.90.380.158912.9
14Eden HazardChelsea10.60.260.29827.8
15Paul PogbaManchester United7.80.330.178210.5
16WillianChelsea7.10.250.308211.5
17Christian EriksenTottenham9.40.210.36818.6
18Mesut ÖzilArsenal9.30.190.38798.5
19RicharlisonWatford6.00.330.137812.9
20Kevin De BruyneManchester City10.40.160.40767.3
21Bernardo SilvaManchester City7.40.260.21739.9
22Riyad MahrezLeicester8.90.210.27717.9
23Wilfried ZahaCrystal Palace6.80.260.187010.3
24Alex IwobiArsenal5.10.250.186813.3
25Henrikh MkhitaryanArsenal7.70.110.40678.6
26Choupo-MotingStoke5.40.250.136211.5
27Juan MataManchester United6.80.170.23598.6
28Moussa SissokoTottenham5.30.190.185710.7
29PedroChelsea7.70.230.11567.3
30Christian AtsuNewcastle United4.80.210.145611.6
31Luciano NarsinghSwansea4.70.190.165411.6
32Loftus-CheekCrystal Palace4.40.170.195412.3
33Oxlade-ChamberlainLiverpool5.60.150.22549.6
34Junior StanislasBournemouth6.00.210.11528.7
35Cesc FàbregasChelsea6.80.100.29527.7
36Yannick BolasieEverton6.40.240.05518.0
37Dusan TadicSouthampton6.20.150.20518.3
38Jason PuncheonCrystal Palace4.40.220.075011.3
39Xherdan ShaqiriStoke0.40.140.2049123.5
40Tom InceHuddersfield5.50.220.06498.8
41José IzquierdoBrighton5.90.170.14488.2
42Pascal GroßBrighton6.00.070.30487.9
43Jordon IbeBournemouth4.70.140.184710.0
44Anthony KnockaertBrighton5.50.170.13478.6
45Roberto PereyraWatford5.80.150.16478.1
46André AyewSwansea6.80.220.04466.8
47Ward-ProwseSouthampton5.10.110.22469.0
48Manuel LanziniWest Ham6.60.130.18456.9
49Nathan RedmondSouthampton5.90.100.23457.7
50Ilkay GündoganManchester City5.30.130.17448.3

Forwards attack ranking

RankPlayerTeam£mNPxG90xAProj PtsPts/£m
1Olivier GiroudChelsea8.21.130.3621326.0
2Sergio AgüeroManchester City11.70.700.2913911.9
3Gabriel JesusManchester City10.00.810.1313813.8
4Harry KaneTottenham12.70.800.1113410.6
5Charlie AustinSouthampton5.80.730.0311419.7
6Álvaro MorataChelsea10.40.630.1411210.7
7Oumar NiasseEverton4.80.570.1210020.9
8Alexandre LacazetteArsenal10.20.510.16969.4
9Shinji OkazakiLeicester5.30.560.079317.6
10Romelu LukakuManchester United11.40.470.16907.9
11Daniel SturridgeWBA7.90.470.158911.2
12Dwight GayleNewcastle United6.10.430.148113.3
13Roberto FirminoLiverpool9.70.320.28818.3
14Marcus RashfordManchester United7.40.300.287810.5
15Andre GrayWatford6.30.420.127812.3
16Christian BentekeCrystal Palace7.70.380.14749.6
17Danny WelbeckArsenal7.30.380.12719.8
18Chris WoodBurnley6.20.390.046410.3
19Peter CrouchStoke4.80.240.236313.1
20Tammy AbrahamSwansea5.40.340.076011.0
21Jermain DefoeBournemouth7.60.340.06597.7
22Calvert-LewinEverton5.00.280.145911.7
23ChicharitoWest Ham6.70.310.08568.4
24Sam VokesBurnley5.70.260.13549.5
25JoseluNewcastle United5.50.300.07549.7
26Ayoze PérezNewcastle United5.20.190.215310.2
27Glenn MurrayBrighton6.00.310.04528.6
28Steve MounieHuddersfield5.90.270.09518.7
29Ashley BarnesBurnley5.30.280.06499.3
30Callum WilsonBournemouth6.00.260.08498.1
31Jamie VardyLeicester8.80.240.09475.3
32Salomón RondónWest Bromwich Albion6.00.250.07467.7
33Mame Biram DioufStoke5.20.250.06458.6
34Joshua KingBournemouth7.00.160.14405.8
35Wayne RooneyEverton7.20.190.10405.6
36Collin QuanerHuddersfield4.60.100.21398.5
37Jay RodriguezWBA5.30.210.06397.3
38Hal Robson-KanuWBA4.90.220.04387.8
39Andy CarrollWest Ham5.70.180.06346.0
40Shane LongSouthampton5.60.170.07346.0
41Troy DeeneyWatford6.30.130.12335.3
42Jordan AyewSwansea5.30.170.06336.2
43Laurent DepoitreHuddersfield5.10.150.08326.3
44Wilfried BonySwansea5.60.190.02315.6
45Tomer HemedBrighton4.70.180.01296.1
46Manolo GabbiadiniSouthampton6.20.100.04203.2

The XG/XA Team

Here’s a team made up of the 8 teams that have a DGW34.  Those being.  Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth

I’ve kept Salah in as most people will.

In defence I’ve gone for Lloris as GK as only Vertonghen is gametime certain and has minimal attacking threat.

In midfield and attack I’ve tried to go for 1 player from each of the teams looking at the ranking and value for money factor

Here’s the team:




fpl underlying stats gw32

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