FPL underlying stats GW34 – expected goals totals


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW34 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW33. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW34 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW34 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW34 then go to the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com




TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE

Here I rank the teams overall for defence only this week and then home and away by expected goals

Ovr Rank xGA   Home Away
1 Man City 2 1
2 Spurs 1 3
3 Chelsea 4 2
4 Liverpool 3 4
5 Man Utd 5 11
6 Leicester 7 5
7 WBA 9 8
8 Brighton 11 10
9 Arsenal 14 6
10 Southampton 6 14
11 Burnley 15 7
12 Newcastle 10 13
13 Huddersfield 12 12
14 C Palace 13 15
15 Watford 18 9
16 West Ham 8 20
17 Everton 17 17
18 Swansea 16 16
19 Bournemouth 20 18
20 Stoke 19 19

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 11TH April

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank Player Club £m NPxG 90 xA90 Proj/Pts
1 Davide Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.14 0.11 44
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.2 0.13 0.10 41
3 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.8 0.08 0.19 40
4 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.5 0.12 0.11 40
5 Calum Chambers Arsenal 4.7 0.15 0.01 35
6 Scott Dann Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.01 35
7 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.7 0.09 0.12 34
8 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.6 0.08 0.13 33
9 Patrick van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.10 0.09 33
10 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.09 0.10 32
11 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.18 32
12 Ciaran Clark Newcastle United 4.3 0.11 0.05 31
13 Andrew Robertson Liverpool 5.1 0.02 0.23 31
14 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.17 31
15 Mamadou Sakho Crystal Palace 4.6 0.12 0.02 30
16 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 5.9 0.08 0.10 30
17 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.11 0.03 29
18 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City 6.4 0.10 0.04 27
19 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.04 27
20 Maya Yoshida Southampton 4.6 0.10 0.03 26
21 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.2 0.02 0.19 26
22 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.6 0.05 0.13 26
23 Eric Bailly Manchester United 6.0 0.10 0.02 25
24 Craig Dawson WBA 4.8 0.09 0.04 25
25 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
26 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.10 0.01 24
27 César Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.9 0.04 0.13 24
28 John Stones Manchester City 5.3 0.10 0.00 23
29 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.09 0.02 23
30 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.06 0.08 23
31 Kyle Walker Manchester City 6.6 0.02 0.16 23
32 Ryan Shawcross Stoke 4.8 0.09 0.01 22
33 Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.3 0.03 0.13 22
34 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.08 0.03 22
35 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.02 0.15 22
36 James Tomkins Crystal Palace 4.3 0.09 0.00 21
37 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.07 0.04 21
38 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.07 0.04 21
39 Vincent Kompany Manchester City 5.8 0.08 0.01 19
40 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.1 0.07 0.02 18
41 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.10 18
42 Jeffrey Schlupp Crystal Palace 4.7 0.05 0.06 18
43 Nathan Aké Bournemouth 5.1 0.05 0.06 18
44 Danny Rose Tottenham 6.4 0.05 0.06 18
45 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
46 Wes Morgan Leicester 4.4 0.07 0.01 17
47 Zanka Huddersfield 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
48 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.1 0.07 0.01 17
49 Cédric Soares Southampton 4.7 0.02 0.11 17
50 Arthur Masuaku West Ham 4.2 0.01 0.12 16
51 Ben Chilwell Leicester 4.4 0.01 0.12 16
52 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.6 0.06 0.01 15
54 Chris Smalling Manchester United 5.5 0.06 0.01 15

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank Player Club £m NPxG 90 xA 90 Proj/Pts Pts/£m
1 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 10.5 0.73 0.26 168 16.0
2 Raheem Sterling Manchester City 8.7 0.60 0.33 152 17.4
3 Son Heung-Min Tottenham 8.4 0.48 0.27 122 14.5
4 David Silva Manchester City 8.2 0.38 0.35 112 13.7
5 Sadio Mané Liverpool 9.5 0.45 0.20 108 11.4
6 Alexis Sánchez Manchester United 11.5 0.39 0.30 108 9.4
7 Anthony Martial Manchester United 7.8 0.35 0.34 105 13.5
8 Jesse Lingard Manchester United 6.0 0.43 0.17 101 16.8
9 Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 7.0 0.37 0.24 98 14.0
10 Marko Arnautovic West Ham 6.9 0.42 0.14 96 13.9
11 Dele Alli Tottenham 9.0 0.32 0.30 95 10.6
12 Erik Lamela Tottenham 6.3 0.34 0.24 92 14.6
13 Leroy Sané Manchester City 8.6 0.26 0.36 90 10.5
14 Paul Pogba Manchester United 7.8 0.33 0.20 86 11.0
15 Willian Chelsea 7.2 0.27 0.29 84 11.7
16 Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9.4 0.22 0.34 81 8.6
17 Eden Hazard Chelsea 10.6 0.24 0.30 80 7.5
18 Theo Walcott Everton 6.9 0.26 0.26 79 11.5
19 Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 10.4 0.16 0.42 78 7.5
20 Richarlison Watford 5.9 0.33 0.13 78 13.1
21 Mesut Özil Arsenal 9.3 0.18 0.38 78 8.3
22 Bernardo Silva Manchester City 8.2 0.28 0.20 76 9.3
23 Kenedy Newcastle United 4.8 0.24 0.24 73 15.2
24 Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 6.8 0.27 0.18 72 10.6
25 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Arsenal 7.7 0.12 0.39 67 8.7
26 Alex Iwobi Arsenal 5.1 0.23 0.20 67 13.0
27 Riyad Mahrez Leicester 9.0 0.20 0.25 67 7.4
28 Choupo-Moting Stoke 5.3 0.25 0.13 62 11.8
29 Juan Mata Manchester United 6.8 0.19 0.22 61 9.0
30 Moussa Sissoko Tottenham 5.3 0.19 0.19 58 10.9
31 Pedro Chelsea 7.7 0.23 0.11 56 7.3
32 Junior Stanislas Bournemouth 5.9 0.21 0.13 55 9.3
33 Luciano Narsingh Swansea 4.7 0.19 0.16 54 11.6
34 Christian Atsu Newcastle United 4.8 0.20 0.14 54 11.2
35 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea 6.8 0.10 0.28 51 7.5
36 Ruben Loftus-Cheek Crystal Palace 4.4 0.16 0.18 51 11.6
37 Oxlade-Chamberlain Arsenal, Liverpool 5.6 0.14 0.21 51 9.0
38 Dusan Tadic Southampton 6.2 0.14 0.21 51 8.2
39 Yannick Bolasie Everton 6.4 0.24 0.04 50 7.8
40 Jason Puncheon Crystal Palace 4.4 0.22 0.07 50 11.3
41 Ilkay Gündogan Manchester City 5.3 0.17 0.15 49 9.3
42 José Izquierdo Brighton 5.9 0.18 0.13 49 8.3
43 James Ward-Prowse Southampton 5.0 0.13 0.21 49 9.7
44 Roberto Pereyra Watford 5.8 0.17 0.14 48 8.3
45 Demarai Gray Leicester 5.3 0.14 0.19 48 9.1
46 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke 6.2 0.14 0.19 48 7.8
47 Pascal Groß Brighton 6.0 0.07 0.30 48 7.9
48 Anthony Knockaert Brighton 5.5 0.17 0.13 47 8.6
49 Jordon Ibe Bournemouth 4.7 0.14 0.18 47 10.0
50 Tom Ince Huddersfield 5.5 0.21 0.06 47 8.5


FORWARD ATTACK RANKINGS

Rank Player Club £m NPxG 90 xA 90 Proj/Pts Pts/£m
1 Olivier Giroud Chelsea 8.2 1.11 0.35 209 25.4
2 Sergio Agüero Manchester City 11.6 0.70 0.30 141 12.1
3 Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 10.0 0.79 0.12 134 13.4
4 Harry Kane Tottenham 12.9 0.77 0.11 130 10.0
5 Charlie Austin Southampton 5.8 0.80 0.03 125 21.6
6 Álvaro Morata Chelsea 10.4 0.61 0.16 111 10.7
7 Oumar Niasse Everton 4.7 0.59 0.12 103 22.0
8 Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 10.2 0.50 0.15 93 9.1
9 Shinji Okazaki Leicester 5.3 0.52 0.10 90 17.1
10 Romelu Lukaku Manchester United 11.6 0.46 0.17 89 7.7
11 Daniel Sturridge WBA 7.9 0.47 0.15 89 11.2
12 Dwight Gayle Newcastle United 6.1 0.45 0.13 83 13.6
13 Aubameyang Arsenal 10.8 0.48 0.06 80 7.4
14 Danny Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.43 0.11 78 10.7
15 Cenk Tosun Everton 6.9 0.40 0.15 78 11.3
16 Roberto Firmino Liverpool 9.5 0.31 0.27 78 8.2
17 Andre Gray Watford 6.3 0.42 0.12 78 12.3
18 Marcus Rashford Manchester United 7.4 0.29 0.28 76 10.3
19 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 7.5 0.40 0.13 76 10.1
20 Chris Wood Burnley 6.3 0.43 0.03 69 10.9
21 Jermain Defoe Bournemouth 7.6 0.39 0.06 66 8.7
22 Peter Crouch Stoke 4.8 0.24 0.23 63 13.1
23 Sam Vokes Burnley 5.7 0.32 0.12 62 10.9
24 Calvert-Lewin Everton 5.0 0.28 0.15 60 11.9
25 Tammy Abraham Swansea 5.4 0.33 0.07 58 10.8
26 Steve Mounie Huddersfield 5.7 0.31 0.08 56 9.9
27 Chicharito West Ham 6.7 0.31 0.08 56 8.4
28 Ayoze Pérez Newcastle United 5.2 0.21 0.20 55 10.5
29 Glenn Murray Brighton 6.0 0.31 0.06 54 9.0
30 Joselu Newcastle United 5.5 0.30 0.07 54 9.7
31 Jamie Vardy Leicester 8.9 0.28 0.09 53 5.9
32 Callum Wilson Bournemouth 5.8 0.27 0.08 50 8.6
33 Mame Diouf Stoke 5.2 0.27 0.06 48 9.2
34 Ashley Barnes Burnley 5.4 0.27 0.05 47 8.7
35 Salomón Rondón WBA 6.0 0.24 0.09 47 7.8
36 Joshua King Bournemouth 7.0 0.18 0.13 42 6.0
37 Jay Rodriguez WBA 5.3 0.23 0.06 42 7.9
38 Collin Quaner Huddersfield 4.6 0.11 0.20 40 8.6
39 Robson-Kanu WBA 4.9 0.22 0.04 38 7.8
40 Shane Long Southampton 5.6 0.19 0.08 38 6.8
41 Wayne Rooney Everton 7.2 0.18 0.09 38 5.2
42 Andy Carroll West Ham 5.7 0.18 0.06 34 6.0
43 Jordan Ayew Swansea 5.3 0.17 0.06 33 6.2
44 Troy Deeney Watford 6.3 0.13 0.11 32 5.1
45 Wilfried Bony Swansea 5.6 0.19 0.02 31 5.6
46 Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 5.1 0.14 0.08 30 6.0
47 Tomer Hemed Brighton 4.7 0.18 0.01 29 6.1





THE XG/XA TEAM

 This is a team solely made of of DGW34 players with reasonable gametime security.

I go through the rankings and have picked the top player in order with gametime security from Chelsea, Burnley, Man Utd, Spurs, Bournemouth, Southampton, Leicester and Brighton.  I’ve excluded Son as I’m concerned over Lamela and Sanchez for value for money

It is just a menu of players from the various teams and is primarily aimed at being affordable although it is around £105m.   I’ve made some adjustments for relative affordability

fpl underlying stats GW34

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1 thought on “FPL underlying stats GW34 – expected goals totals”

  1. DDG
    Robertson, Alonso, Morgan
    Salah, Son, Willian, Kenedy
    Firmino, Vardy, Barnes

    Ryan, Femenia, Lowton, Mkhitaryan

    2 free transfers. Mkhi for Milivojevic and Firmino for Lukaku? Or Mkhi for Sanchez and Firmino for Austin? Or something else?

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