FPL underlying stats GW34 - expected goals totals

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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW34 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW33. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW34 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW34 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW34 then go to the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE

Here I rank the teams overall for defence only this week and then home and away by expected goals

Ovr Rank xGA		Home	Away
1	Man City	2	1
2	Spurs	1	3
3	Chelsea	4	2
4	Liverpool	3	4
5	Man Utd	5	11
6	Leicester	7	5
7	WBA	9	8
8	Brighton	11	10
9	Arsenal	14	6
10	Southampton	6	14
11	Burnley	15	7
12	Newcastle	10	13
13	Huddersfield	12	12
14	C Palace	13	15
15	Watford	18	9
16	West Ham	8	20
17	Everton	17	17
18	Swansea	16	16
19	Bournemouth	20	18
20	Stoke	19	19

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 11TH April

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank	Player	Club	£m	NPxG 90	xA90	Proj/Pts
1	Davide Zappacosta	Chelsea	5.9	0.14	0.11	44
2	Marcos Alonso	Chelsea	7.2	0.13	0.10	41
3	Sead Kolasinac	Arsenal	5.8	0.08	0.19	40
4	Victor Moses	Chelsea	6.5	0.12	0.11	40
5	Calum Chambers	Arsenal	4.7	0.15	0.01	35
6	Scott Dann	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.15	0.01	35
7	Virgil van Dijk	Liverpool	5.7	0.09	0.12	34
8	Nacho Monreal	Arsenal	5.6	0.08	0.13	33
9	Patrick van Aanholt	Crystal Palace	5.1	0.10	0.09	33
10	Miguel Britos	Watford	4.3	0.09	0.10	32
11	Serge Aurier	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.18	32
12	Ciaran Clark	Newcastle United	4.3	0.11	0.05	31
13	Andrew Robertson	Liverpool	5.1	0.02	0.23	31
14	Ben Davies	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.17	31
15	Mamadou Sakho	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.12	0.02	30
16	Héctor Bellerín	Arsenal	5.9	0.08	0.10	30
17	Joel Matip	Liverpool	5.4	0.11	0.03	29
18	Nicolás Otamendi	Manchester City	6.4	0.10	0.04	27
19	Daryl Janmaat	Watford	4.8	0.10	0.04	27
20	Maya Yoshida	Southampton	4.6	0.10	0.03	26
21	Kieran Trippier	Tottenham	5.2	0.02	0.19	26
22	Harry Maguire	Leicester	5.6	0.05	0.13	26
23	Eric Bailly	Manchester United	6.0	0.10	0.02	25
24	Craig Dawson	WBA	4.8	0.09	0.04	25
25	Dejan Lovren	Liverpool	5.3	0.08	0.06	25
26	Lewis Dunk	Brighton	4.5	0.10	0.01	24
27	César Azpilicueta	Chelsea	6.9	0.04	0.13	24
28	John Stones	Manchester City	5.3	0.10	0.00	23
29	Laurent Koscielny	Arsenal	6.0	0.09	0.02	23
30	Ryan Bertrand	Southampton	5.3	0.06	0.08	23
31	Kyle Walker	Manchester City	6.6	0.02	0.16	23
32	Ryan Shawcross	Stoke	4.8	0.09	0.01	22
33	Trent Alexander-Arnold	Liverpool	4.3	0.03	0.13	22
34	Wesley Hoedt	Southampton	5.0	0.08	0.03	22
35	José Holebas	Watford	4.8	0.02	0.15	22
36	James Tomkins	Crystal Palace	4.3	0.09	0.00	21
37	Jonny Evans	WBA	4.9	0.07	0.04	21
38	Shane Duffy	Brighton	4.6	0.07	0.04	21
39	Vincent Kompany	Manchester City	5.8	0.08	0.01	19
40	Alfie Mawson	Swansea	5.1	0.07	0.02	18
41	Leighton Baines	Everton	5.6	0.03	0.10	18
42	Jeffrey Schlupp	Crystal Palace	4.7	0.05	0.06	18
43	Nathan Aké	Bournemouth	5.1	0.05	0.06	18
44	Danny Rose	Tottenham	6.4	0.05	0.06	18
45	David Luiz	Chelsea	5.7	0.08	0.00	18
46	Wes Morgan	Leicester	4.4	0.07	0.01	17
47	Zanka	Huddersfield	4.5	0.07	0.01	17
48	Ragnar Klavan	Liverpool	4.1	0.07	0.01	17
49	Cédric Soares	Southampton	4.7	0.02	0.11	17
50	Arthur Masuaku	West Ham	4.2	0.01	0.12	16
51	Ben Chilwell	Leicester	4.4	0.01	0.12	16
52	Ahmed Hegazy	WBA	4.6	0.06	0.01	15
54	Chris Smalling	Manchester United	5.5	0.06	0.01	15

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank	Player	Club	£m	NPxG 90	xA 90	Proj/Pts	Pts/£m
1	Mohamed Salah	Liverpool	10.5	0.73	0.26	168	16.0
2	Raheem Sterling	Manchester City	8.7	0.60	0.33	152	17.4
3	Son Heung-Min	Tottenham	8.4	0.48	0.27	122	14.5
4	David Silva	Manchester City	8.2	0.38	0.35	112	13.7
5	Sadio Mané	Liverpool	9.5	0.45	0.20	108	11.4
6	Alexis Sánchez	Manchester United	11.5	0.39	0.30	108	9.4
7	Anthony Martial	Manchester United	7.8	0.35	0.34	105	13.5
8	Jesse Lingard	Manchester United	6.0	0.43	0.17	101	16.8
9	Aaron Ramsey	Arsenal	7.0	0.37	0.24	98	14.0
10	Marko Arnautovic	West Ham	6.9	0.42	0.14	96	13.9
11	Dele Alli	Tottenham	9.0	0.32	0.30	95	10.6
12	Erik Lamela	Tottenham	6.3	0.34	0.24	92	14.6
13	Leroy Sané	Manchester City	8.6	0.26	0.36	90	10.5
14	Paul Pogba	Manchester United	7.8	0.33	0.20	86	11.0
15	Willian	Chelsea	7.2	0.27	0.29	84	11.7
16	Christian Eriksen	Tottenham	9.4	0.22	0.34	81	8.6
17	Eden Hazard	Chelsea	10.6	0.24	0.30	80	7.5
18	Theo Walcott	Everton	6.9	0.26	0.26	79	11.5
19	Kevin De Bruyne	Manchester City	10.4	0.16	0.42	78	7.5
20	Richarlison	Watford	5.9	0.33	0.13	78	13.1
21	Mesut Özil	Arsenal	9.3	0.18	0.38	78	8.3
22	Bernardo Silva	Manchester City	8.2	0.28	0.20	76	9.3
23	Kenedy	Newcastle United	4.8	0.24	0.24	73	15.2
24	Wilfried Zaha	Crystal Palace	6.8	0.27	0.18	72	10.6
25	Henrikh Mkhitaryan	Arsenal	7.7	0.12	0.39	67	8.7
26	Alex Iwobi	Arsenal	5.1	0.23	0.20	67	13.0
27	Riyad Mahrez	Leicester	9.0	0.20	0.25	67	7.4
28	Choupo-Moting	Stoke	5.3	0.25	0.13	62	11.8
29	Juan Mata	Manchester United	6.8	0.19	0.22	61	9.0
30	Moussa Sissoko	Tottenham	5.3	0.19	0.19	58	10.9
31	Pedro	Chelsea	7.7	0.23	0.11	56	7.3
32	Junior Stanislas	Bournemouth	5.9	0.21	0.13	55	9.3
33	Luciano Narsingh	Swansea	4.7	0.19	0.16	54	11.6
34	Christian Atsu	Newcastle United	4.8	0.20	0.14	54	11.2
35	Cesc Fàbregas	Chelsea	6.8	0.10	0.28	51	7.5
36	Ruben Loftus-Cheek	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.16	0.18	51	11.6
37	Oxlade-Chamberlain	Arsenal, Liverpool	5.6	0.14	0.21	51	9.0
38	Dusan Tadic	Southampton	6.2	0.14	0.21	51	8.2
39	Yannick Bolasie	Everton	6.4	0.24	0.04	50	7.8
40	Jason Puncheon	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.22	0.07	50	11.3
41	Ilkay Gündogan	Manchester City	5.3	0.17	0.15	49	9.3
42	José Izquierdo	Brighton	5.9	0.18	0.13	49	8.3
43	James Ward-Prowse	Southampton	5.0	0.13	0.21	49	9.7
44	Roberto Pereyra	Watford	5.8	0.17	0.14	48	8.3
45	Demarai Gray	Leicester	5.3	0.14	0.19	48	9.1
46	Xherdan Shaqiri	Stoke	6.2	0.14	0.19	48	7.8
47	Pascal Groß	Brighton	6.0	0.07	0.30	48	7.9
48	Anthony Knockaert	Brighton	5.5	0.17	0.13	47	8.6
49	Jordon Ibe	Bournemouth	4.7	0.14	0.18	47	10.0
50	Tom Ince	Huddersfield	5.5	0.21	0.06	47	8.5

FORWARD ATTACK RANKINGS

Rank	Player	Club	£m	NPxG 90	xA 90	Proj/Pts	Pts/£m
1	Olivier Giroud	Chelsea	8.2	1.11	0.35	209	25.4
2	Sergio Agüero	Manchester City	11.6	0.70	0.30	141	12.1
3	Gabriel Jesus	Manchester City	10.0	0.79	0.12	134	13.4
4	Harry Kane	Tottenham	12.9	0.77	0.11	130	10.0
5	Charlie Austin	Southampton	5.8	0.80	0.03	125	21.6
6	Álvaro Morata	Chelsea	10.4	0.61	0.16	111	10.7
7	Oumar Niasse	Everton	4.7	0.59	0.12	103	22.0
8	Alexandre Lacazette	Arsenal	10.2	0.50	0.15	93	9.1
9	Shinji Okazaki	Leicester	5.3	0.52	0.10	90	17.1
10	Romelu Lukaku	Manchester United	11.6	0.46	0.17	89	7.7
11	Daniel Sturridge	WBA	7.9	0.47	0.15	89	11.2
12	Dwight Gayle	Newcastle United	6.1	0.45	0.13	83	13.6
13	Aubameyang	Arsenal	10.8	0.48	0.06	80	7.4
14	Danny Welbeck	Arsenal	7.3	0.43	0.11	78	10.7
15	Cenk Tosun	Everton	6.9	0.40	0.15	78	11.3
16	Roberto Firmino	Liverpool	9.5	0.31	0.27	78	8.2
17	Andre Gray	Watford	6.3	0.42	0.12	78	12.3
18	Marcus Rashford	Manchester United	7.4	0.29	0.28	76	10.3
19	Christian Benteke	Crystal Palace	7.5	0.40	0.13	76	10.1
20	Chris Wood	Burnley	6.3	0.43	0.03	69	10.9
21	Jermain Defoe	Bournemouth	7.6	0.39	0.06	66	8.7
22	Peter Crouch	Stoke	4.8	0.24	0.23	63	13.1
23	Sam Vokes	Burnley	5.7	0.32	0.12	62	10.9
24	Calvert-Lewin	Everton	5.0	0.28	0.15	60	11.9
25	Tammy Abraham	Swansea	5.4	0.33	0.07	58	10.8
26	Steve Mounie	Huddersfield	5.7	0.31	0.08	56	9.9
27	Chicharito	West Ham	6.7	0.31	0.08	56	8.4
28	Ayoze Pérez	Newcastle United	5.2	0.21	0.20	55	10.5
29	Glenn Murray	Brighton	6.0	0.31	0.06	54	9.0
30	Joselu	Newcastle United	5.5	0.30	0.07	54	9.7
31	Jamie Vardy	Leicester	8.9	0.28	0.09	53	5.9
32	Callum Wilson	Bournemouth	5.8	0.27	0.08	50	8.6
33	Mame Diouf	Stoke	5.2	0.27	0.06	48	9.2
34	Ashley Barnes	Burnley	5.4	0.27	0.05	47	8.7
35	Salomón Rondón	WBA	6.0	0.24	0.09	47	7.8
36	Joshua King	Bournemouth	7.0	0.18	0.13	42	6.0
37	Jay Rodriguez	WBA	5.3	0.23	0.06	42	7.9
38	Collin Quaner	Huddersfield	4.6	0.11	0.20	40	8.6
39	Robson-Kanu	WBA	4.9	0.22	0.04	38	7.8
40	Shane Long	Southampton	5.6	0.19	0.08	38	6.8
41	Wayne Rooney	Everton	7.2	0.18	0.09	38	5.2
42	Andy Carroll	West Ham	5.7	0.18	0.06	34	6.0
43	Jordan Ayew	Swansea	5.3	0.17	0.06	33	6.2
44	Troy Deeney	Watford	6.3	0.13	0.11	32	5.1
45	Wilfried Bony	Swansea	5.6	0.19	0.02	31	5.6
46	Laurent Depoitre	Huddersfield	5.1	0.14	0.08	30	6.0
47	Tomer Hemed	Brighton	4.7	0.18	0.01	29	6.1

THE XG/XA TEAM

This is a team solely made of of DGW34 players with reasonable gametime security.

I go through the rankings and have picked the top player in order with gametime security from Chelsea, Burnley, Man Utd, Spurs, Bournemouth, Southampton, Leicester and Brighton. I’ve excluded Son as I’m concerned over Lamela and Sanchez for value for money

It is just a menu of players from the various teams and is primarily aimed at being affordable although it is around £105m. I’ve made some adjustments for relative affordability

GEEK LEAGUES

Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511

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