FPL underlying stats GW36 - expected goals totals

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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW36 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW35. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW36 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW36 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW34 then go to the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com. You can also see gameweek stats in Joseph Crilleys GW35 review

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE

Here I rank the teams overall for defence only this week and then home and away by expected goals

Ovr Rank		Home	Away
1	Manchester City	1	1
2	Chelsea	4	2
3	Tottenham	3	3
4	Liverpool	2	4
5	Manchester United	5	10
6	Leicester	7	6
7	WBA	9	8
8	Arsenal	13	5
9	Southampton	6	13
10	Brighton	12	11
11	Burnley	15	7
12	Huddersfield	10	12
13	Newcastle United	11	14
14	Watford	18	9
15	Crystal Palace	14	15
16	Everton	16	16
17	West Ham	8	20
18	Swansea	17	18
19	Stoke	19	17
20	Bournemouth	20	19

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case Tuesday 24th of April

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NPxG	xA	Proj/Pts
1	Calum Chambers	Arsenal	4.7	0.20	0.01	47
2	Davide Zappacosta	Chelsea	5.9	0.14	0.11	44
3	Marcos Alonso	Chelsea	7.1	0.13	0.10	41
4	Sead Kolasinac	Arsenal	5.8	0.08	0.19	40
5	Victor Moses	Chelsea	6.5	0.12	0.11	40
6	James Milner	Liverpool	6.0	0.06	0.18	34
7	Miguel Britos	Watford	4.3	0.09	0.10	32
8	Nacho Monreal	Arsenal	5.6	0.08	0.12	32
9	Patrick van Aanholt	Crystal Palace	5.1	0.10	0.08	32
10	Andrew Robertson	Liverpool	5.1	0.03	0.22	32
11	Héctor Bellerín	Arsenal	5.9	0.08	0.11	31
12	Ciaran Clark	Newcastle United	4.3	0.11	0.05	31
13	Virgil van Dijk	Liverpool	5.7	0.08	0.10	30
14	Kevin Long	Burnley	4.1	0.06	0.14	30
15	Joel Matip	Liverpool	5.4	0.11	0.03	29
16	Seamus Coleman	Everton	6.4	0.08	0.08	27
17	Nicolás Otamendi	Manchester City	6.4	0.10	0.04	27
18	Ben Davies	Tottenham	5.8	0.04	0.15	26
19	Maya Yoshida	Southampton	4.6	0.10	0.03	26
20	Eric Bailly	Manchester United	6.0	0.10	0.02	25
21	Mamadou Sakho	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.10	0.02	25
22	Alexander-Arnold	Liverpool	4.4	0.03	0.16	25
23	Dejan Lovren	Liverpool	5.3	0.08	0.06	25
24	Lewis Dunk	Brighton	4.5	0.09	0.04	25
25	Daryl Janmaat	Watford	4.8	0.09	0.03	24
26	Craig Dawson	WBA	4.8	0.09	0.03	24
27	James Tomkins	Crystal Palace	4.3	0.10	0.00	23
28	John Stones	Manchester City	5.3	0.10	0.00	23
29	Laurent Koscielny	Arsenal	6.0	0.09	0.02	23
30	César Azpilicueta	Chelsea	6.9	0.04	0.12	23
31	Kyle Walker	Manchester City	6.6	0.02	0.15	22
32	José Holebas	Watford	4.8	0.02	0.15	22
33	Ryan Shawcross	Stoke	4.8	0.09	0.01	22
34	Ryan Bertrand	Southampton	5.3	0.05	0.09	22
35	Jonny Evans	WBA	4.9	0.07	0.04	21
36	Shane Duffy	Brighton	4.6	0.07	0.04	21
37	Chris Smalling	Manchester United	5.6	0.08	0.01	19
38	Wesley Hoedt	Southampton	5.0	0.07	0.03	19
39	Vincent Kompany	Manchester City	5.9	0.07	0.03	19
40	Zanka	Huddersfield	4.5	0.07	0.03	19
41	David Luiz	Chelsea	5.7	0.08	0.00	18
42	Alfie Mawson	Swansea	5.1	0.07	0.02	18
43	Leighton Baines	Everton	5.6	0.03	0.10	18
44	Danny Rose	Tottenham	6.4	0.05	0.06	18
45	Wes Morgan	Leicester	4.4	0.07	0.01	17
46	Aaron Cresswell	West Ham	4.9	0.02	0.11	17
47	Cédric Soares	Southampton	4.7	0.02	0.11	17
48	Nathan Aké	Bournemouth	5.0	0.05	0.05	17
49	Ahmed Hegazy	WBA	4.6	0.06	0.01	15
50	Ragnar Klavan	Liverpool	4.1	0.06	0.01	15
51	Ben Mee	Burnley	4.9	0.06	0.01	15
52	Ben Chilwell	Leicester	4.4	0.01	0.11	15
53	Arthur Masuaku	West Ham	4.2	0.01	0.11	15
54	Kiko Femenía	Watford	4.3	0.02	0.08	14
55	Charlie Daniels	Bournemouth	4.7	0.02	0.08	14

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NPxG	xA	Proj/Pts	Pts/£m
1	Mohamed Salah	Liverpool	10.6	0.72	0.24	164	15.5
2	Raheem Sterling	Manchester City	9.0	0.66	0.31	161	17.9
3	Son Heung-Min	Tottenham	8.3	0.46	0.27	118	14.2
4	Sadio Mané	Liverpool	9.5	0.46	0.19	109	11.5
5	David Silva	Manchester City	8.2	0.35	0.34	105	12.8
6	Alexis Sánchez	Manchester United	11.5	0.37	0.30	105	9.1
7	Jesse Lingard	Manchester United	6.0	0.41	0.19	100	16.6
8	Anthony Martial	Manchester United	7.8	0.33	0.32	99	12.7
9	Aaron Ramsey	Arsenal	6.8	0.36	0.26	98	14.4
10	Dele Alli	Tottenham	9.0	0.31	0.29	92	10.2
11	Marko Arnautovic	West Ham	7.0	0.40	0.13	91	13.0
12	Leroy Sané	Manchester City	8.6	0.26	0.35	89	10.4
13	Marouane Fellaini	Manchester United	4.7	0.44	0.03	87	18.5
14	Paul Pogba	Manchester United	7.9	0.32	0.21	85	10.7
15	Erik Lamela	Tottenham	6.3	0.31	0.21	83	13.1
16	Willian	Chelsea	7.1	0.26	0.29	82	11.6
17	Christian Eriksen	Tottenham	9.5	0.22	0.34	81	8.5
18	Eden Hazard	Chelsea	10.5	0.25	0.29	81	7.7
19	Bernardo Silva	Manchester City	7.2	0.30	0.20	80	11.1
20	Wilfried Zaha	Crystal Palace	6.9	0.31	0.17	78	11.3
21	Mesut Özil	Arsenal	9.3	0.18	0.38	78	8.3
22	Kevin De Bruyne	Manchester City	10.3	0.16	0.40	76	7.4
23	Richarlison	Watford	5.9	0.32	0.13	76	12.8
24	Theo Walcott	Arsenal, Everton	6.8	0.24	0.24	73	10.7
25	Riyad Mahrez	Leicester	8.9	0.21	0.24	67	7.6
26	Henrikh Mkhitaryan	Arsenal	7.7	0.12	0.39	67	8.7
27	Alex Iwobi	Arsenal	5.1	0.22	0.19	63	12.4
28	Kenedy	Newcastle United	4.8	0.21	0.20	63	13.1
29	Choupo-Moting	Stoke	5.3	0.25	0.13	62	11.8
30	Juan Mata	Manchester United	6.8	0.19	0.22	61	9.0
31	Alex Chamberlain	Liverpool	5.6	0.14	0.26	56	10.0
32	Junior Stanislas	Bournemouth	5.7	0.21	0.13	55	9.6
33	Moussa Sissoko	Tottenham	5.3	0.18	0.18	55	10.3
34	Christian Atsu	Newcastle United	4.8	0.20	0.14	54	11.2
35	Pedro	Chelsea	7.7	0.22	0.10	53	6.9
36	Ilkay Gündogan	Manchester City	5.4	0.17	0.16	51	9.4
37	Dusan Tadic	Southampton	6.2	0.15	0.19	50	8.1
38	Jason Puncheon	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.22	0.07	50	11.3
39	Cesc Fàbregas	Chelsea	6.8	0.10	0.27	50	7.3
40	Tom Ince	Huddersfield	5.5	0.23	0.05	49	9.0
41	Luciano Narsingh	Swansea	4.7	0.17	0.15	49	10.5
42	José Izquierdo	Brighton	5.9	0.18	0.12	48	8.1
43	Roberto Pereyra	Watford	5.8	0.17	0.13	47	8.1
44	Manuel Lanzini	West Ham	6.6	0.14	0.18	47	7.1
45	Ward-Prowse	Southampton	4.9	0.12	0.21	47	9.5
46	Yannick Bolasie	Everton	6.4	0.22	0.04	46	7.2
47	Demarai Gray	Leicester	5.3	0.13	0.19	46	8.7
48	Xherdan Shaqiri	Stoke	6.2	0.13	0.19	46	7.5
49	Jordon Ibe	Bournemouth	4.7	0.14	0.17	46	9.8
50	Loftus-Cheek	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.14	0.17	46	10.5
51	Matt Ritchie	Newcastle United	5.4	0.11	0.21	45	8.3
52	Andros Townsend	Crystal Palace	5.6	0.09	0.23	43	7.7
53	Pascal Groß	Brighton	6.0	0.06	0.28	43	7.2

FORWARD ATTACK RANKINGS

Rank	Player	Club	Val £m	NPxG	xA	Proj/Pts	Pts/£m
1	Olivier Giroud	Chelsea	8.2	0.95	0.37	187	22.8
2	Sergio Agüero	Manchester City	11.5	0.70	0.30	141	12.2
3	Gabriel Jesus	Manchester City	10.3	0.80	0.11	134	13.0
4	Harry Kane	Tottenham	12.8	0.76	0.11	128	10.0
5	Kelechi Iheanacho	Leicester	6.5	0.59	0.28	122	18.7
6	Charlie Austin	Southampton	5.8	0.75	0.03	117	20.2
7	Álvaro Morata	Chelsea	10.4	0.63	0.15	113	10.9
8	Oumar Niasse	Everton	4.7	0.59	0.12	103	22.0
9	Alexandre Lacazette	Arsenal	10.2	0.50	0.15	93	9.1
10	Shinji Okazaki	Leicester	5.3	0.50	0.12	90	16.9
11	Romelu Lukaku	Manchester United	11.5	0.47	0.16	90	7.8
12	Daniel Sturridge	WBA	7.9	0.47	0.15	89	11.2
13	Aubameyang	Arsenal	10.8	0.43	0.12	79	7.3
14	Dwight Gayle	Newcastle United	6.1	0.43	0.12	79	13.0
15	Roberto Firmino	Liverpool	9.6	0.32	0.26	78	8.2
16	Andre Gray	Watford	6.3	0.42	0.12	78	12.3
17	Christian Benteke	Crystal Palace	7.5	0.39	0.14	75	10.0
18	Cenk Tosun	Everton	6.8	0.35	0.19	75	11.0
19	Marcus Rashford	Manchester United	7.4	0.29	0.26	74	10.0
20	Chris Wood	Burnley	6.4	0.41	0.03	66	10.3
21	Peter Crouch	Stoke	4.8	0.26	0.21	63	13.2
22	Sam Vokes	Burnley	5.7	0.31	0.12	61	10.7
23	Jermain Defoe	Bournemouth	7.6	0.36	0.05	60	8.0
24	Tammy Abraham	Swansea	5.4	0.33	0.07	58	10.8
25	Glenn Murray	Brighton	6.0	0.34	0.05	57	9.6
26	Chicharito	West Ham	6.7	0.31	0.09	57	8.6
27	Calvert-Lewin	Everton	5.0	0.26	0.15	57	11.3
28	Jamie Vardy	Leicester	8.9	0.31	0.08	56	6.3
29	Ayoze Pérez	Newcastle United	5.3	0.22	0.20	56	10.6
30	Callum Wilson	Bournemouth	5.7	0.29	0.08	53	9.3
31	Joselu	Newcastle United	5.5	0.29	0.07	52	9.5
32	Ashley Barnes	Burnley	5.4	0.28	0.06	49	9.1
33	Mame Biram Diouf	Stoke	5.2	0.27	0.06	48	9.2
34	Steve Mounie	Huddersfield	5.5	0.31	0.00	47	8.6
35	Salomón Rondón	WBA	6.0	0.24	0.09	47	7.8
36	Joshua King	Bournemouth	7.0	0.18	0.15	44	6.4
37	Jay Rodriguez	WBA	5.3	0.23	0.06	42	7.9
38	Shane Long	Southampton	5.6	0.21	0.08	41	7.3
39	Hal Robson-Kanu	WBA	4.9	0.22	0.04	38	7.8
40	Collin Quaner	Huddersfield	4.5	0.10	0.19	37	8.2
41	Andy Carroll	West Ham	5.7	0.19	0.07	37	6.5
42	Wayne Rooney	Everton	7.1	0.17	0.09	36	5.1
43	Jordan Ayew	Swansea	5.3	0.18	0.07	35	6.7
44	Troy Deeney	Watford	6.3	0.13	0.11	32	5.1
45	Wilfried Bony	Swansea	5.6	0.19	0.02	31	5.6
46	Laurent Depoitre	Huddersfield	5.1	0.14	0.07	29	5.7
47	Tomer Hemed	Brighton	4.6	0.18	0.01	29	6.2
48	Manolo Gabbiadini	Southampton	6.2	0.10	0.04	20	3.2

THE XG/XA TEAM

This is a team solely made of of DGW37 players with reasonable gametime security although some trade offs have been made due to value. One from each team in attack and defence maximum.

I go through the rankings and have picked the top player in order with reasonable gametime security from Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Huddersfield, Southampton, Leicester, Swansea, Newcastle, West Ham and Brighton. There are also adjustments for value for money.

In defence I took the top 7 teams and picked the best attacking ranked player. Gks were a compromise.

I’ve excluded Son as I’m concerned over Lamela and Sanchez for value for money. I went for Lingard and Willian as both are great value although do have gametime and minutes risk.

I went for Jesus over Sterling as Jesus probably has less rotation risk with Aguero’s injury. Murray is probably the best value of the cheap strikers although he is susceptible to being subbed which could cause DGW37 issues.

It is just a menu of players from the various teams and is primarily aimed at being affordable although it is around £104.5m.

GEEK LEAGUES

Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511

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