FPL underlying stats GW8 – expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW7


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW8 article where we present expected goals/assist information as well as shot/key pass stats up to and including GW7. We look at stats for individual players by position and a team defence ranking

FPL underlying stats GW8 – expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW7   

This article was written on Monday before the Bournemouth v C Palace game.

See also the review of GW7 in isolation

Background

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com.

Shot and key pass stats are from the excellent free site whoscored.com

Everything is done on the basis of per 90 minutes played rather than per game.  That’s so you can see how effective a player is on the pitch.

Methods and Caveats for player rankings

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then ranked them by projected total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 200 minutes.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Ramsey have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

I have tried to pick relevant players. It’s impossible to rank everyone.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any.  Please point out any in the comments section.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case Monday 1st October.

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

Shts P90:  The amount of shots taken per 90 minutes played

KP P90:  the amount of key passes played per 90 minutes played

Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet

Defenders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date.  Only attacking stats not clean sheets.



FPL underlying stats GW8

Midfielders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that would have resulted from the NPxG and xA stats to date

fpl underlying stats GW8

Forwards

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that would have resulted from the NPxG and xA stats to date.



FPL underlying stats GW8

Team defence

The teams are ordered by xG conceded overall and then the ranks are shown for home and away

fpl underlying stats GW8

The NPxG/xA team

This is a team I’ve made up by the following process:

Defenders/GKs come 1 each from the 7 best defensive teams

Midfielders and forwards are the best value for money players taking into account the place in the current team starting lineup.

FPL underlying stats GW8

See also the review of GW7 in isolation

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12 thoughts on “FPL underlying stats GW8 – expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW7

  1. Hi,
    As I’m sure you will have realised seconds after posting, the midfielder table is a repeat of the forwards.
    Great, informative data though. 🙂
    Cheers

  2. Hi Geek, can you help me out a bit here?
    Mane posted just 3 shots and no KPs in the last game (and had a poor GW6 too), and you understandably ranked him quite low in the last article. But you are picking him as a value-for-money player in this NPxG/xA team. Is there something I’m missing out here?

    • Hi I didn’t explain this very well and I’m glad you pointed it out. The structure of the team was basically going to have 3 premium players to use the cash up as the value for money stats tends favour the cheaper players.

      Mane was the midfielder who came out best after Salah and after all the City mids who were behind Gundogan so they could not be counted again for the team as Aguero was going to be in the forwards. Mane came out best ahead of other premium mids in the midfield of Sanchez, Alli, Hazard, Eriksen Ozil etc although in reality I should have put Vardy in as he had a better multiple and put another mid price

      Next week I will put the projected points and the multiples so it will be crystal clear and transparent

      Hope this helps. Thanks again and good luck this week

  3. Cracking post, Geek. And as Skorr said, looking forward to that tasty midfield table…!! Just swooped for Maddison and hoping he fares well in the stats…

    Good luck y’all.

    • Hi mate. The issue with Maddison is that even though he shoots alot he tends to shoot from anywhere and his XG is therefore low. That effects your project points as it’s 5 for a goal and only 3 for an assist which is why he’s quite low on the list..

      Hope that helps and good luck this week

    • Hi Ian

      The polls will be interesting. Not putting it up until Wednesday night Thursday morning though after UCL games cheers and good luck this week

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