FPL underlying stats GW9 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW8


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW9 article where we present expected goals/assist information as well as shot/key pass stats up to and including GW8. We look at stats for individual players by position and a team defence and attack ranking

FPL underlying stats GW9 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW8

See also the review of GW8 in isolation

Background

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com.

Shot and key pass stats are from the excellent free site whoscored.com

Everything is done on the basis of per 90 minutes played rather than per game. That’s so you can see how effective a player is on the pitch.

Methods and Caveats for player rankings

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then ranked them by projected total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 200 minutes.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Ramsey have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

I have tried to pick relevant players. It’s impossible to rank everyone.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any. Please point out any in the comments section.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case Monday 1st October.

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

Shts P90: The amount of shots taken per 90 minutes played

KP P90: the amount of key passes played per 90 minutes played

Proj Pts:  I project the FPL points as if the player plays 38 games for 90 minutes.  It’s an easy way to get the right points balance between NPxG and xA and the goals and assists they would produce

VFM ratio:  The ratio of projected points to the value.  It’s a rough value for money calculation.  9.5 is a rough average

Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet




Defenders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes. Only attacking stats not clean sheets.

 FPL underlying stats GW9

Midfielders

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes




 FPL underlying stats GW9

Forwards

Again the players are ordered by projected FPL points that from the NPxG and xA stats to date assuming they played 38 games for 90 minutes

 FPL underlying stats GW9

Team Attack stats

Team xG goals Actual Goals
Manchester City 22.49 21
Liverpool 16.66 15
Bournemouth 16.08 16
Chelsea 15.72 18
Tottenham 14.79 15
Manchester United 12.83 13
Wolves 11.06 9
Southampton 10.61 6
Watford 10.55 11
Arsenal 10.41 19
Everton 9.52 13
Brighton 9.49 9
Fulham 9.41 9
Leicester 9.14 14
West Ham 8.73 8
Burnley 7.69 10
Cardiff 7.44 4
Crystal Palace 7.02 5
Newcastle United 5.98 6
Huddersfield 4.75 4

Team defence

Team xG conceded Actual conceded
Manchester City 4.0 3
Liverpool 5.9 3
Wolves 6.2 6
Leicester 8.6 12
Chelsea 8.6 5
Bournemouth 9.3 12
Tottenham 9.7 7
Everton 9.8 12
Arsenal 11.0 10
Manchester United 11.0 14
Watford 11.0 12
Crystal Palace 11.6 9
Newcastle United 12.9 13
Huddersfield 13.3 17
West Ham 13.3 13
Cardiff 13.7 17
Southampton 14.0 14
Burnley 14.1 12
Brighton 14.7 13
Fulham 18.0 21

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5 thoughts on “FPL underlying stats GW9 – cumulative expected goals/assists and shot/key pass stats to GW8

  1. I’m starting to take a much keener interest in stats and it’s already improved my OR in my fourth season. But is it better to target teams that are over or underperforming? Arsenal, for example, seem to be hugely overperforming in terms of Team Attack at the mo. Hard to tell whether to jump on the bandwagon and make a play for e.g. Lacazette, Ramsay et al….or whether this is just a phase and they’ll soon regress to their true averages. In which case, it’s best to give them a wide berth….

    There aren’t as many deviations in the Team Defence stats.

    The same of course applies to individual players. Which tack do other people take? If it’s best to take the chance with overperformers, is it time to be looking at De Bruyne again?

    Either way, really interesting. Thanks Geek and enjoy the hols with Mrs. Geek. 🙂

    • I personally don’t look at teams that over perform under perform in attack but I do look at individual player stats as the primary indicator of future performance. Players themselves tend to have a history of over or under performance of these stats. An example is Hazard who often over performs them. Hope that helps

    • Hi Paul

      The table captures playsers that have played 200 minutes and Davies has played 278 so far this season in the PL which is why he’s on the list. It’s not filtered for those players who are nailed on for every game.

      I’ll make that clearer in the caveats

      Thnaks very much and hope you’re enjoying the International break

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