Here’s our FPL wildcard article where FFGeek Contributor Kev in Canada debates whether to wildcard in GW15 or GW16.
FPL Wildcard – Kev in Canada on whether he should wildcard in GW15 or GW16
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Kev finished 48k last season 6k in 18/19 and 195k in 17/18
To wildcard or not to wildcard.. one week early
Anyone else in the same boat as me: wanted to WC in GW16 but have had a few last minute injuries to go and f everything up? It is very annoying. I am trying to stay strong and hold off one week but I feel that I need to at least write down the 5000 thoughts I am having right now so that I can make a clear headed decision.
Please give it a read and let me know what you think.. should I wild card this week or next? Even if I do not WC this week, all of this planning should be helpful to a WC16, so it may be interesting to you if that is your situation too.
Before I start it is worth noting that I have only seen two other wildcarder’s on Twitter this week so far (FPL Partridge and Ajit Dhillon), please let me know if you spot anymore.
Here are the thoughts that I am having that I need to barf out on paper to make the decision:
1. Pros and cons to WC15 rather than WC16
2. What key players would I lose for just the week of 15 and what would I gain
3. Would a GW15 WC template be different than a GW16 WC template
4. Deep dive into an actual GW15 Wildcard (full analysis). Skip to this if you are on a Wild Card now (likely relevant for GW16 wild carders too)
Firstly my current team
You can see my original write up in the FFGeek Contributors teams article
I’ve already done Jesus out Firmino in and this is the team I was thinking of running with for GW15
Here’s my stats at the end of GW14:
GW14 points: 93 (FPL average 60) Total points: 852, Overall Rank: 357k, green arrow: 317k Team Value: £102.8m
Now with that out of the way… Let’s go…
1. Pro’s and Cons to WC15 rather than WC16
A. I currently have Reece James and Ben Chillwell injured with 0FT in the pocket, as I went Jesus to Bobby earlier this week. I also have Dias as a defender who could be rested along with Bruno playing in the cup game today. So there is a chance that I will have 10 or less playing total and GW15 WC would address that without a hit. I am not going to hit right before a wildcard on a defender.
B. I could make a bit of team value by not losing on Chilwell, James, etc. while being early on the main BB template dudes (Coufal, Johnstone, etc.)
C. I would have a bit more time to putter around with it, vs. the Boxing Day bonanza 2 day Wild Card.
A. I would likely sell De Bruyne, Grealish, and Firminho. All three have good enough fixtures this week that they could haul. I would ideally like to have them in for just this week and then move them on.
B. There is risk of one more week of injury next week to my players that I bring in this week. Although, I would also gain one more transfer to use next week that would slightly offset it.
C. I actually would like Reece James and Chillwell in my WC if they were not injured. I would have a little bit longer to see if they have responded well to treatment. However, Chillwell had his press conference today (Wednesday 23rd) and it seems they will not be back in GW16 even, so I would likely be in the same agonizing situation. I would lose built up value in Chillwell but Reece James is at his purchase price for me right now, so he would be easier for me to still get before 19, and would be cheaper likely.
2. What key fixtures would I lose in 15 and what would I gain?
Lose: De Bruyne NEW, Grealish CRY, Firmino WBA
Gain: Spur premium wol, Vardy mun, Pool premium D WBA
-Firmino and Liverpool d a wash but De Bruyne/Grealish much better than Son/Vardy this week.. right?
3. Would a GW15 WC template be different than a GW16 WC
This one is tough to answer. I think it would, just because the WC template changes so much week to week in general. However, if we are all going to be focusing on the same DGW players over the next 4 game weeks then maybe it won’t. The main difference would likely be no Chillwell and James this week for sure, but if some positive news came out next week then perhaps one or both would actually make my 16 Wildcard.
Of course, anyone that in theory I put in my GW15 wildcard could get injured and then they would not have been someone I put in my GW16, if I knew they were injured. not worth worrying about the uncontrollables though.
There are also players such as Castagne and Vardy that I would like more fitness information on. Both are in my WC thoughts and the extra week would be helpful.
Finally, there will also be players rising in price over the next few days that I may get priced out of or prevent me from a strength elsewhere (Adams, Coufal, Johnstone, etc.).
4. Deep dive into GW15 Wildcard
Seeing as I MAY wildcard this week, I guess I need to be ready to push the emergency button last second. That means I need to go through all the analytics and what not and be in the frame of mind that my wildcard is active, just in case. To prepare fully I need to be certain about the following:
A. Strategy of BB19 and TC26 or TC19 and BB26.
B. Who are the main captain dudes that are gonna smash until GW26 (when I’d likely wc next)
C. If I BB19, who are the best two keepers to dance with
D. Who are the BB enablers?
E. Do I want any non-double GW players in GW19
A. Chip Strategy
– I am going to keep this short as it isn’t the point of this write up and there are tons of opinions on this. The reality is there are two main camps: those with a WC still and those With out. It seems like BB19 and TC 26 is the way I will be going. The only reason I would flip is because I would have more money in GW26 to BB and have a better bench than if I did it now. But the reality is I would still want a cheap bench anyway so it is not really an excuse. The main benefit would be not having to carry a second keeper until my next wildcard, but with the way COVID is going, it’s not a terrible thing to have.
So I will be building to a BB19 and a TC26.
B. Who are the main captains through GW26.
the reason I am looking through GW26, is because that is when I would likely WC next if that is when the next mega DGW is.
I am not going to get too crazy here and do a full analysis. I think if I simply look at the main premiums and see who play SHU, WB, FUL, etc. I should be good.
Mo Salah, Bruno Fernandes, Kane, Son, Vardy, De Bruyne are the main premiums.
Top 2 in my opinion for each week:
GW16: Kane/Son FUL, Bruno WOL
GW17: Kane/Son LEE, Bruno AVL
* Free Hit GW18: KDB BHA, Kane/Son avl
*BB GW19: Mo MUN/BUR, Bruno liv, ful
GW20: KDB wb, Bruno SHU
GW21: Vardy LEE, KDB SHU
GW22: Vardy ful, Mo BHA, KDB bur
GW23: Kane/Son WB, Bruno EVE
GW24: Bruno wb, Mo lei
GW25: Bruno NEW, Kane/Son whu
Looking at this Bruno and Mo need to be in the team. Kane/Son are needed before the double but can be ditched for KDB later. Vardy looks like a great own through GW22 as well. There were some weeks where Werner/Auba etc. had a good fixture but I don’t trust their form to be anywhere near my team at the moment.
I think it is feasible to only have three premiums looking at this. It could be Bruno/Mo and Kane and then swap Kane to Vardy for the double game week. Only having three really opens the wildcard up to allow for a very balanced team. It is possible to have Mo, Bruno, Son, Vardy and Robertson with a decent balanced team too though. 4 premiums can be done.
C. Best 2 keepers to have.
Currently I am on McCarthy and have him at 4.5M. His fixtures are: WHU, LIV, blank, lei/lee, ARS, AVL, mun – not great. I think this may be the time to move off him. The challenge is who are the best cheap goalies and do any tandem together well?
Johnstone has been great, even though he isn’t keeping clean sheets. He gets a ton of save points and if he does keep a clean sheet it will probably mean he gets 3 bonus points. I am likely to have him in. So let’s see if anyone pairs with him.
The other keepers that double Pope (5.4), Mendy (5.2), Areola (4.5), Meslier (4.5), Shmeichel (5.5), Alisson (5.9), De Gea (5.3), Fabianski (5.1).
I am only going to look at the ones 5.4 and lower. Also, if it happens that MUN/BUR double moves to GW17, I will pretty much go with Pope here.
This shouldn’t take long, as I don’t really want to play Johnstone much at all haha. The only weeks he has a decent fixture are GW17 ARS (sounds bad but they can not score right now..), GW21 FUL, GW22 shu, GW25 bur. So let’s see which keepers on the list have good games besides those weeks, if any.
Tough game weeks by keeper:
Pope: 21, 22 – perfect match – lol – maybe I should just stop now
Mendy: 17, 22 – also a perfect match – nice to have options
Areola: 16, 22, 24 – not great and I don’t love the keeper anyway
Meslier: 17, 21, 22 – hmm nice match too, Leeds can’t defend in general though but he is 4.5M
Fabianski: 17, 21, 25 – not bad but not perfect and not 4.5M
I think for me, it is between, Pope, Mendy and Meslier depending on team value while tinkering.
D. Who are the enablers for the BB and are they worth it over a non-BB player?
The challenge with an early bench boost like this, is that the players we bring in need to be cheap, as we will be keeping them for a good chunk of the rest of the season. Typically that means funds are wasted as they should be in the main squad. However this year with COVID, it is not such a big problem as having a deep bench may be very helpful.
I think the best move is, can we find a few cheaper enablers that double and you would potentially even get decent points from (not just appearance points). I think there are three key players that everyone will want so it is a straight forward analysis. We could even argue there are a few more but the main three are obvious.
The main three are Charlie Taylor, Soucek and Coufal. All three are great value picks in general and could start most weeks in our team as our 10th and 11th dressed player. So I think I am comfortable bench boosting.
I also think players like Lookman, Dallas, Balbuena, Lowton, Lindelof, Raphinha, can all be considered for lower price tiered players that don’t just get appearance points. None are perfect in my opinion. Potentially having Anguissa in at 4.5M midfielder for appearance points only is something to consider but it would have to really upgrade the rest of the team. Soucek/Lookman are much more attacking for only 0.6/0.5M more.
E. Do I want any non-double GW players in GW19 – The short answer for me is no.
I think the non-double players that may be worth it vs. players just because they double are more prominent in the premiums (son/kane as they play SHU) and in defence (Dias, Dier, etc) that have great fixtures or you have value built in them. The enabler template seems fairly set for the double.
For the defenders the fixtures change anyway for the most part so I would probably move off Dier, etc. after the double. So I think the double players are better suited.
For the premiums it probably makes sense to jump on and off them, seeing as the ones that I have the most value built into (Mo and Bruno) double anyway and I want to keep. I can play around with Kane to Vardy back to Kane, etc. Or Son to KDB. It makes more sense to have 3 doubling premiums vs. only two if little value is lost jumping.
The only player that I would consider keeping that singles is Grealish, as he is amazing value this year. However, I already lost my built up value earlier when I sold him for his missed game. So I am in a position where I can easily sell him and buy him back for the similar price. It means for me I should sell, as the fixtures aren’t great really either (not that it has mattered this year).
GW15 potential wildcard team
Please let me know if you have anything to add. I would love to hear from the readers.You can also contact me on twitter here
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