Here’s Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 25 player picks to help you decide on transfers for your team. Rob has finished 3 of the last 5 seasons in the top 0.5% of FPL managers.
Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 25 player picks
See also Rob’s draft wildcard team
Hi everyone and welcome to Player Picks!
After the success of the previous 2 seasons, Player Picks is back again for 2019-2020 with a fairly similar format. I’ve decided to pare back the stats from previous weeks picks so that they will just include an average for the season – hopefully this should make the article a little bit simpler. Otherwise I’ll be sticking to the same format of a Banker, Ace and Joker as I’ve followed in previous years.
As a reminder, the Banker is predominantly a fixture-based pick where I follow them for 4 weeks and average the score over that period. The Ace is a 1 week pick who I think will do well and would make an appealing Captain choice. The Joker is a differential pick with less than 10% ownership who I think might do well that week. For reference, the overall 2018-19 picks averaged as follows: Banker 5.22, Ace 6.11, Joker 4.92. Hopefully (with some help as you’ll see below) we can beat that this season. I’ll start to look at the 2019-20 averages a bit later in the season when there is more data.
This season I’m also going to add a ‘Key Fixture’ analysis to Player Picks. This is where I’ll pick one fixture for the gameweek in question which I think FPL managers should consider covering in their squad. I’ll look at previous meetings, bookies odds and form in this – it might be a fixture where we already have a Player Pick, it might not! There will still also be Twitter polls where the FFG Twitter Community have an opportunity to select players, but also new for this season is a contribution from the FFG Slack Channel where Patreon users will have chance to directly contribute to the weekly picks through the Player Picks forum. So without further ado, let’s get on with this weeks Picks!
FPL gameweek 25 player picks
Banker – Joe Gomez (LIV) – 5.2m – SOU
Liverpool defenders have monopolised this slot of late and here’s another one for this week – I just can’t resist their fixture run at the moment! With Mane out for a minimum of a couple of games, we’ve all got a Liverpool slot free in our squads and some free cash burning holes in our pocket. So why not splash that cash on a premium from another club (see our Ace this week) and pick up a Liverpool defender at a bargain price? Gomez has been superb since coming back into the side at the end of last year and for me it’s no co-incidence that their defence has tightened up since he’s been back. He forms a good partnership with Van Dijk and you only have to look at the performance of Lovern and Matip in the FA Cup last week to see the difference between the other players competing for his position. I don’t think he’ll stay at this price for long!
Ace – Sergio Aguero (MCI) – 12.0m – tot
Despite what is on paper a slightly tougher fixture, it’s difficult to ignore the Argentinian star this week with 6 goals in his last 3 games, including the winner in a 23 minute cameo in GW24. City playing Spurs conjures up fond memories for me regarding Aguero – captaining him in October 2014 for his 4 goal haul was an FPL moment I’ll never forget so perhaps there is an element of nostalgia to this pick. But what you can’t argue with is the recent form that has left him only 1 goal behind Jamie Vardy at the top of the EPL goal scoring charts. Then there’s Spurs wretched defensive form – only 3 clean sheets all season. Are we going to see another Kun masterclass this Sunday?
Joker – Callum Wilson (BOU) – 7.4m – AVL – CALLUM WILSON ALERT! CALLUM WILSON ALERT!
Yep, this is confirmation that I have gone stark raving bonkers on Player Picks! You’re reading this right, I have indeed picked 4.8% owned Callum Wilson for the Joker this week, but I actually think there’s some good reasoning behind this. First of all he’s got 3 nice decent fixtures coming up and The Cherries have to start getting some points or they’re going to find themselves falling through the trap door to The Championship sooner than you can say Tuesday night at The Riverside. Next up – he scored last week! Wilson is a very streaky player but he does like to go on goal-scoring runs so this could be the start of something. Then there’s Villa’s defence – leaky at best. And finally – Joe’s transfer planner loves him which should be reason alone. (I’ll be preparing my statement of apology for this pick for next week as soon as the GW25 deadline hits!)
Key Fixture Picks – Burnley vs Arsenal (2pm Sunday)
Bookies Odds
Win: Burnley 13/5; Arsenal Evens; Draw 13/5
Clean Sheet: Burnley 16/5; Arsenal 7/4
Selected Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Wood 7/4; Rodriguez 5/2; Aubameyang 21/10; Lacazette 11/10; Martinelli 7/5
Sunday afternoon gives us an ideal opportunity to have a look at 2 clubs who it’s fair to say have significantly under-performed this season. They are also however 2 teams who are important for FPL managers moving forward. As it stands, Burnley are the only side who do not currently have a blank gameweek at any stage this season – they will therefore be of interest to managers who have perhaps used their chips (most notably the Free Hit) earlier in the season as they can provide players to safely navigate the fixture chaos ahead. For Arsenal, it’s the opposite reason! They have a definite blank in GW28 and if either they or Man City stay in both the FA Cup and their respective European competitions they are going to have up to 2 more. They are therefore an interesting team for those of us who still have the Bench Boost, Triple Captain or 2nd Wildcard chips available.
The form book heavily favours The Gunners here. Burnley have never beaten Arsenal in The Premier League and the Londoners have won the last 10 league meetings between the sides. The GW2 meeting between these sides was hardly plain sailing mind, with Aubameyang’s second half goal proving the winner after Ashley Barnes had cancelled out Lacazette’s opener. And in terms of recent form, it’s The Clarets with the edge – they’ve won their last 2 in the league including a famous 2-0 win at Old Trafford in GW24 while The Gunners have drawn their last 3.
The 2 obvious targets for the home side are Chris Wood and Nick Pope. Wood is in fine form – the Kiwi has 3 goals and an assist in his last 4 and now has 10 goals for the season; no mean feat for a side who have struggled until recent weeks. He is keenly priced at 6.2m and he could be a nice budget alternative to someone like Ings, Jimenez or Abraham. FPL managers had been frustrated by Pope this season prompting a wave of sales in GW22 and 23, but this coincided with a significant upturn in form racking up double digit returns in his last 2 games. If you don’t have any of your chips left and just purely want a set and forget keeper who is reasonably priced and will pick up steady points, you could do a lot worse.
For Arsenal, 10.7m Aubameyang is of course the big standout player. Like Wood at Burnley, he’s done well in a below par team with 14 goals and 3 assists and he’ll be keen to prove himself again after missing the last 2 games through suspension. At the other end of the price spectrum is Martinelli. He’s certainly proved very effective in the Gabon internationals absence; with 2 goals in his last 2 games at 4.5m, he could be one to watch. Defensively, the Gunners are a far stretch from the clean sheet kings of the 1990s and with only 4 clean sheets so far this season and a lengthening injury list, I’ll be avoiding for the moment.
As for a prediction, again the pressure’s on this week. I called Wolves v Liverpool correctly and was only one goal out on the Reds game against West Ham. The bookies odds favour an away win in this one – can Burnley buck the form book at take something from this game? I reckon they can so I’m going for an entertaining 2-2 draw.
Best of luck for this week folks – may your arrows be green!
See also Rob’s draft wildcard team
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