Here’s Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 4 player picks to help you decide on transfers for your team. Rob has finished 3 of the last 5 seasons in the top 0.5% of FPL managers
Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 4 player picks
Hi everyone and welcome to Player Picks!
After the success of the previous 2 seasons, Player Picks is back again for 2019-2020 with a fairly similar format. I’ve decided to pare back the stats from previous weeks picks so that they will just include an average for the season – hopefully this should make the article a little bit simpler. Otherwise I’ll be sticking to the same format of a Banker, Ace and Joker as I’ve followed in previous years.
As a reminder, the Banker is predominantly a fixture-based pick where I follow them for 4 weeks and average the score over that period. The Ace is a 1 week pick who I think will do well and would make an appealing Captain choice. The Joker is a differential pick with less than 10% ownership who I think might do well that week. For reference, the overall 2018-19 picks averaged as follows: Banker 5.22, Ace 6.11, Joker 4.92. Hopefully (with some help as you’ll see below) we can beat that this season. I’ll start to look at the 2019-20 averages from GW4.
This season I’m also going to add a ‘Key Fixture’ analysis to Player Picks. This is where I’ll pick one fixture for the gameweek in question which I think FPL managers should consider covering in their squad. I’ll look at previous meetings, bookies odds and form in this – it might be a fixture where we already have a Player Pick, it might not! There will still also be Twitter polls where the FFG Twitter Community have an opportunity to select players, but also new for this season is a contribution from the FFG Slack Channel where Patreon users will have chance to directly contribute to the weekly picks through the Player Picks forum. So without further ado, let’s get on with this weeks Picks!
FPL Gameweek 4 Player Picks
I’m away on holiday in lovely Cornwall this week with limited phone signal so I’ve chosen all 3 picks myself. Normal service will be resumed next week when I’ll be going back to the FFG Patreon Slack Community for another pick.
Banker – Sergio Aguero (MCI) 12.0m – BHA/nor/WAT/eve
It’s a second City Banker in a row this week – who can resist them with both the from they’re showing and the fixture list they have ahead? It’s strange to think that one of the stars of FPL over the last few seasons has been somewhat overlooked this season – he’s in fine form with 4 goals so far and yet has ‘just’ 18.7% ownership. (I remember seasons gone by where we’d have been surprised if his ownership wasn’t double that at this stage!) Still back to it, and it looks a good week few weeks to have the Argentinian star – inconsistent Brighton visit the Ethiad this weekend, followed by fixtures against two defensively fragile sides in Norwich and Watford. It certainly looks to be a good time to own at least 2 (or even 3?) attacking players for The Citizens. I guess the only question is which combination you can afford?
Ace – Teemu Pukki (NOR) 7.0m – whm
It’s been a fantastic start to the season for the Flying Finn and he’s certainly exceeded all expectations in terms of his returns. 5 goals and an assist across the opening 3 weekends makes him the leading points scoring in FPL so far and he’ll certainly have high hopes of adding to his tally against West Ham this weekend. He looks to be a predatory type striker, with all 12 of his shots and all 4 of his key passes this season coming from within the penalty box. And with West Ham conceding 74% of their shots against this season within Pukki’s key hit-zone, this bodes well for the Norwich front-man, who is now the most owned striker in FPL.
Joker – Emerson (CHE) 5.5m – SHU
Here’s an alternative premium defensive punt with just 2.5% ownership for those of you who might be getting twitchy about your double Liverpool defence, the sustainability of Zinchenko or whether Man United will keep another clean sheet in the near future. Sure, the Chelsea defence has flattered to deceive so far this season but the Italian international left-back has showed some good attacking intent with 6 shots and 6 key passes across the first 3 gameweeks. Chelsea also have a great run of fixtures. The visit of more defensively minded Sheffield United surely looks a good chance of a first clean sheet this week and after that, Liverpool in GW6 are the only member of the Big 6 they face before they visit Man City in GW13. This could be a nice time to invest.
Key Fixture Pick – West Ham vs Norwich (Saturday 3pm)
Odds
Win: West Ham 10/11; Norwich 3/1; Draw 14/5
Clean Sheet: West Ham 5/1; Norwich 11/2
Selected Goalscorer Picks: Teemu Pukki 7/5; Sebastian Haller 5/4; Todd Cantwell 5/1; Felipe Anderson 21/10; Manuel Lanzini 9/4
My GW4 Fixture Pick is an intriguing encounter at the London stadium as the plucky Canaries face a Hammers side who impressed in GW3. There is little recent history between these two to go on with their most recent EPL clashes coming in 2015-16 where both games finished 2-2, though it should be said that both sides are much changed since then. The visitors conceded an alarming 23 shots including 13 in the box against Chelsea in GW3. They were clinical (even if quieter) at the other end, taking just 6 shots but scoring with a third of these. For the home side, 12 of West Ham’s 16 GW3 shots came from inside the box and they racked up an impressive xG of 3.46 in that 3-1 win away to Watford.
As mentioned above, Teemu Pukki is definitely the standout pick for Daniel Farke’s team but we shouldn’t discount some other of Norwich’s offensive options. Todd Cantwell’s ownership has risen sharply from 21k in GW1 to 333k by the end of GW3, but at 4.7m he still represents a great budget option in midfield with a goal and 2 assists to his name already. Another midfield option is Emiliano Buendia. He sits 3rd in the EPL for chances created in the first 3 gameweeks at 10 with 2 assists coming from these, but is pricier at 6m – Cantwell certainly represents far more budget appeal.
For West Ham, Sebastien Haller was unquestionably the star of GW scoring with an incredible xG of 1.82 having scored with 2 of his 4 shots. At 7.4m with just 3.9% ownership, he could be a great differential over the next couple of weeks against 2 of the promoted teams. In midfield, there’s also a plethora of options for The Hammers with Lanzini, Anderson and even possibly Yarmolenko good options in the mid-price bracket. Anderson for one is particularly favoured by Joe Crilley’s Planner Projection Model and showed in patches last season what he is capable of.
Pickings are much leaner at the back for both teams however. Neither side has managed a clean sheet as yet and they have conceded 15 goals between them across the opening 3 weeks. Lukasz Fabianski is probably the most appealing defensive asset for his save points if nothing else, but looks overpriced at 5.0m and despite there being a number of 4.5 priced players on both sides, none really standout for me perhaps with the exception of Maximillain Aarons of Norwich who at least offers some attacking threat.
All in all, I suspect this will be another fun game with plenty of goalmouth action and I’m going to go for another 2-2 draw for my scoreline prediction – why not eh?!
That’s all from me this week folks – good luck!
Other posts
The FFGeek contributors show their teams for GW4 part 1
GW3 review from an underlying stats perspective
Analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
See our GW4 bandwagons and sinking ships article
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