Here’s Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 28 player picks to help you decide on transfers for your team. Rob has finished 3 of the last 5 seasons in the top 0.5% of FPL managers.
Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 28 player picks
Hi everyone and welcome to Player Picks!
After the success of the previous 2 seasons, Player Picks is back again for 2019-2020 with a fairly similar format. I’ve decided to pare back the stats from previous weeks picks so that they will just include an average for the season – hopefully this should make the article a little bit simpler. Otherwise I’ll be sticking to the same format of a Banker, Ace and Joker as I’ve followed in previous years.
As a reminder, the Banker is predominantly a fixture-based pick where I follow them for 4 weeks and average the score over that period. The Ace is a 1 week pick who I think will do well and would make an appealing Captain choice. The Joker is a differential pick with less than 10% ownership who I think might do well that week. For reference, the overall 2018-19 picks averaged as follows: Banker 5.22, Ace 6.11, Joker 4.92. Hopefully (with some help as you’ll see below) we can beat that this season. I’ll start to look at the 2019-20 averages a bit later in the season when there is more data.
This season I’m also going to add a ‘Key Fixture’ analysis to Player Picks. This is where I’ll pick one fixture for the gameweek in question which I think FPL managers should consider covering in their squad. I’ll look at previous meetings, bookies odds and form in this – it might be a fixture where we already have a Player Pick, it might not! There will still also be Twitter polls where the FFG Twitter Community have an opportunity to select players, but also new for this season is a contribution from the FFG Slack Channel where Patreon users will have chance to directly contribute to the weekly picks through the Player Picks forum. So without further ado, let’s get on with this weeks Picks!
FPL gameweek 28 player picks
Banker – Willy Boly – WOL – 4.7m – tot/BHA/whu/BOU
A guaranteed GW31 fixture and a good run of games in the run-up means that the Banker slot is filled by a Wolves player for the second consecutive week. This time it’s defensive lynch-pin Willy Boly, a key factor in why the Midlands side have kept clean sheets in their last 3 EPL matches. Sure, there are other options at the back. For another 1.4m you could have more potent attacking threat offered by Matt Doherty, but that is quite big step up in price. Drop down to 4.5m and you’ll get Romain Saiss who offers good set piece threat though it is argued is possibly more rotatable. Personally I like Boly as a safe option and although a visit to Spurs doesn’t scream of a clean sheet, the following 3 fixtures all look more promising.
Ace – Sadio Mane – LIV – 12.3m – wat
The Senegalese midfielder has certainly bounced back well from his short injury lay-off, netting the winner in Liverpool’s last 2 league fixtures as The Reds continue their march towards a maiden Premier League crown. He’s looked lively in both matches and was unlucky not to bag a second last Monday after VAR intervened to narrowly rule him offside. Opponents Watford’s new manager bounce has fallen a little flat of late, with their last win coming in GW22 and they’ll have their work cut out again this weekend. Salah will probably prove top of the pops in the Captain stakes, but if you’re needing to make up ground, 23% owned Mane could certainly end up a tidy differential pick this week.
Joker – Stuart Armstrong – SOU – 5.2m – whu
A big thank you to Alex Ball from the FFG Contributor team who has picked out Stuart Armstrong for this week’s Joker. The 0.3% owned Saints midfielder has 3 goals in his last 5 starts and seems to have benefited from a more advanced position under Hassenhuttl’s slightly rejigged tactical system. Saints also have 3 nice fixtures with games against Newcastle and Norwich following this weeks visit to the London stadium. At just 5.2m, Armstrong certainly presents a low risk from the financial point of view and could be set to profit again this week. He’ll fancy his chances of another return against a leaky West Ham side lacking in confidence who although valiant in defeat versus the league leaders in GW27, still blew a lead mainly thanks to a howler from keeper Fabianski. It’s certainly a case of ‘must do better’ from Moyes’ side at the moment.
Key Fixture Pick – Norwich vs Leicester (8pm Friday UK time)
Win: Norwich 10/3; Leicester 3/4; Draw 3/1
Clean Sheet: Norwich 5/1; Leicester 7/4
Selected Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Teemu Pukki 7/5; Josip Drmic 13/5; Jamie Vardy 4/6; Kelechi Iheanacho 11/10; James Maddison 7/4
You all know I love a Friday night fixture for my key fixture pick and you’ll probably remember what happened the last time I picked out a Friday night away trip for The Foxes. Something to do with a record victory and hat-tricks for Jamie Vardy and Ayoze Perez I think? Seems a long time ago now! Anyway, I’m really looking forward to this match tomorrow night – I think we could be in for a treat.
Rather ironically, it was The Canaries who brought Leicester’s excellent early run of form that had been rocket-boosted by that GW10 9-0 to an abrupt end in GW17 as they surprisingly held Rodgers’ side to a 1-1 draw. This was then followed by The Foxes losing 4 of their next 6 games and it would be fair to say that they’ve not really hit the heights of their autumn form since. As for Norwich, it’s been a tough season and they’re now well adrift at the foot of the Premier League table as well as having to cope with a number of injuries. They did acquit themselves well though in the gale that was GW26 at home to Liverpool and in the end only lost be a single late goal. Carrow Road can be a tough place to visit as Man City, Spurs and Arsenal will all testify this season.
The big FPL attractions in this fixture will be Leicester attackers. Jamie Vardy may not have scored since GW18 but he’s bound to break his duck again soon and where better than in a fixture against the bottom side. There’s also plenty attacking of threat in midfield. James Maddison’s returns have also been more sparse of late, but he’ll relish a visit to a club where he was a hugely popular fixture in his Championship days. Ayoze Perez is a streaky player, but does have 7 goals this season and tends to get returns in clusters and Harvey Barnes has been in fine form and posting some good stats over the last few weeks.
For Norwich, one of the attractions is that they’re one of the more likely sides to have a GW31 fixture with the odds against them in their FA Cup 5th round tie away to Spurs. As such, if you’re holding someone like Todd Cantwell as a 5th midfielder, I’d certainly keep him in your squad. And I’m sure there are still some folk out there that still own early season star Teemu Pukki. He does have 11 goals this season remember and again, could be a good outside choice in GW31.
As for defences, well the less said about Norwich at the back the better I guess. Leicester do have 9 clean sheets this season, but only 2 of them have come since GW16. The fixtures are well set for them though so the likes of Soyuncu and Evans might be good lower mid-range price options or you could jump up in price a bit more to get the increased attacking threat from wing-back of Chilwell or Pereira. And don’t forget keeper Schmeichel at 5.3 – he made a cracking penalty save last week against Man City too!
As for a prediction for this one, well I’m expecting fireworks. I’ll be watching from behind the sofa mind as someone who doesn’t own Jamie Vardy especially as I’m expecting a few goals. I’ll go for a 4-1 win for Leicester and I might just stick a fiver on a Vardy hat-trick to buffer any FPL pain!
Best of luck for this week folks and may your arrows be green!
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