Here’s Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 29 player picks to help you decide on transfers for your team. Rob has finished 3 of the last 5 seasons in the top 0.5% of FPL managers.
Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 29 player picks
Follow Rob on twitter here
Hi everyone and welcome to Player Picks!
After the success of the previous 2 seasons, Player Picks is back again for 2019-2020 with a fairly similar format. I’ve decided to pare back the stats from previous weeks picks so that they will just include an average for the season – hopefully this should make the article a little bit simpler. Otherwise I’ll be sticking to the same format of a Banker, Ace and Joker as I’ve followed in previous years.
As a reminder, the Banker is predominantly a fixture-based pick where I follow them for 4 weeks and average the score over that period. The Ace is a 1 week pick who I think will do well and would make an appealing Captain choice. The Joker is a differential pick with less than 10% ownership who I think might do well that week. For reference, the overall 2018-19 picks averaged as follows: Banker 5.22, Ace 6.11, Joker 4.92. Hopefully (with some help as you’ll see below) we can beat that this season. I’ll start to look at the 2019-20 averages a bit later in the season when there is more data.
This season I’m also going to add a ‘Key Fixture’ analysis to Player Picks. This is where I’ll pick one fixture for the gameweek in question which I think FPL managers should consider covering in their squad. I’ll look at previous meetings, bookies odds and form in this – it might be a fixture where we already have a Player Pick, it might not! There will still also be Twitter polls where the FFG Twitter Community have an opportunity to select players, but also new for this season is a contribution from the FFG Slack Channel where Patreon users will have chance to directly contribute to the weekly picks through the Player Picks forum. So without further ado, let’s get on with this weeks Picks!
FPL gameweek 29 player picks
Banker – Ismaila Sarr – WAT – 6.3m (cry/LEI/bur/SOU)
Most of our Banker picks over the last few weeks have focused on players who will be guaranteed a GW31 fixture and it’s more of the same this week! On the radar now is Watford’s Senegalese star who was the star of the show in the Hornets 3-0 demolition of previously unbeaten league leaders Liverpool. Sarr has returned in 5 of the last 6 matches he’s started and had he not been injured from GW24 to GW26, I’m sure he’d have a higher season tally than the 5 goals and 4 assists he’s currently on. With just 1.8% ownership, he looks like a nice differential as we head towards the big blank in GW31 – will he add another return in this week’s London derby against Crystal Palace? Personally, I quite like his chances.
Ace – Sergio Aguero – MCI – 11.9m (mun/ARS) –
De Bruyne and Aubameyang will be most people’s first picks for the double gameweek this week and I suspect Mo Salah will also be a heavily favoured Captain choice. But if I had ground to make up in my mini-league, or was looking for a differential Captain pick, I’d be pinning the armband on a certain Sergio Aguero this week. There will be the usual worries about Pep Rotation Roulette, but surely he has to play in the Manchester derby and he bagged a hat-trick against The Gunners at home during a double gameweek last season. You’d therefore have to think therefore he’d start both games (!) He’s also only got 17.4% ownership and the reality with this is that his effective ownership amongst active teams will be significantly lower. If he bangs this week and you’ve captained him, expect a significant green arrow.
Joker – Nicolas Pepe – ARS – 9.2 (WHM/mci)
It’s another double gameweek player who is this week’s final pick, with 4.2% owned Nicolas Pepe my selection in the Joker slot. He’s been pretty inconsistent so far this season, but has returned in his last 2 gameweeks including a 17 point haul in GW26 against Newcastle. Weekend opponents West Ham look his best shot at another big return, and if he hits form again in this game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he carries this through to midweek and gives the Man City defence (which is likely to be minus Aymeric Laporte) something to think about. The major downside for me is that he is a little on the pricey side, but if you’ve got the cash to spare I think he’s a good left field double gameweek shout.
Key Fixture Pick – Liverpool v Bournemouth (Saturday 1230pm)
Bookies Odds
Win: Liverpool 1/4; Bournemouth 12/1; Draw 11/2
Clean Sheet: Liverpool 5/6, Bournemouth 10/1
Selected Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Salah 2/3, Mane 4/5, Firmino 11/10, Wilson 7/2, King 9/2
Amongst all this week’s double gameweek euphoria, there’s an intriguing opening fixture to GW29 which FPL managers will be watching closely. Liverpool have certainly gone off the boil in the last couple of weeks. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, failing to score in all 3 of these defeats which included there first league defeat of the season where they were soundly beaten at Vicarage Road. Visitors Bournemouth are also struggling for form. Back to back wins in GW24 and 25 have now been forgotten, though a gutsy draw with Chelsea last Saturday did at least mean that they took 1 point from their last 3 matches. They are deep in a relegation dog fight and with no clean sheets since GW17, you can’t really forsee that there position will get any better after this week.
Recent history certainly favours The Reds in this fixture – they’ve won the last 5 Premier League meetings with an aggregate score of 17-0. A certain Mo Salah also loves this fixture – he’s scored in each of these last 5 meetings, including a hat-trick in the fixture at The Vitality last season. This season’s reverse fixture finished 3-0 to The Reds in GW16, which included a double digit haul for the Egyptian star.
Salah will certainly be a popular alternative captaincy option to the double gameweek assets from City and Arsenal and with good reason. If you own him, I think Sadio Mane could be a good differential captain shout too with Klopp’s men keen to get back on track after their recent dip in form. This is also the case at the back with Van Dijk, Robbo, Trent and co. keen to reverse the trend that’s seen them ship 5 goals in their last 2 league matches.
For the visitors, it will be intriguing to see how Eddie Howe sets his team up for this game. Will he stick to his guns, try and have a go and leave his side open to those lethal pacy Liverpool counter-attacks or will he get his side to dig in and try and frustrate the league leaders. Either way, I don’t think Bournemouth assets will feature in many active teams first 11s this week but it is worth keeping an eye on their players as they are one of only 8 sides that have a game in GW31. Players like Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson have struggled to match the form of last season, but have previous FPL form and could come good in a relegation battle. They could be good differential picks for 1 or 2 weeks as fillers for the blank gameweek.
Despite Liverpool’s recent troubles, I can’t really see this game going against the form book and the Bookies odds certainly agree with me on this. I’m going for a 2-0 win for the home side for my prediction this week.
Best of luck for this week folks – may your arrows be green!
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