Here’s Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 30 player picks to help you decide on transfers for your team. Rob has finished 3 of the last 5 seasons in the top 0.5% of FPL managers.
Rob Reid with his FPL gameweek 30 player picks
Follow Rob on twitter here
Hi everyone and welcome to Player Picks!
After the success of the previous 2 seasons, Player Picks is back again for 2019-2020 with a fairly similar format. I’ve decided to pare back the stats from previous weeks picks so that they will just include an average for the season – hopefully this should make the article a little bit simpler. Otherwise I’ll be sticking to the same format of a Banker, Ace and Joker as I’ve followed in previous years.
As a reminder, the Banker is predominantly a fixture-based pick where I follow them for 4 weeks and average the score over that period. The Ace is a 1 week pick who I think will do well and would make an appealing Captain choice. The Joker is a differential pick with less than 10% ownership who I think might do well that week. For reference, the overall 2018-19 picks averaged as follows: Banker 5.22, Ace 6.11, Joker 4.92. Hopefully (with some help as you’ll see below) we can beat that this season. I’ll start to look at the 2019-20 averages a bit later in the season when there is more data.
This season I’m also going to add a ‘Key Fixture’ analysis to Player Picks. This is where I’ll pick one fixture for the gameweek in question which I think FPL managers should consider covering in their squad. I’ll look at previous meetings, bookies odds and form in this – it might be a fixture where we already have a Player Pick, it might not! There will still also be Twitter polls where the FFG Twitter Community have an opportunity to select players, but also new for this season is a contribution from the FFG Slack Channel where Patreon users will have chance to directly contribute to the weekly picks through the Player Picks forum. So without further ado, let’s get on with this weeks Picks!
FPL gameweek 30 player picks
Banker – Raul Jimenez – WOL – 8.0m – whu/BOU/avl/ARS
Another week, and it’s another wolf – the Mexican striker is difficult to overlook at the moment. He presents both goal and assist threat, has high ownership and has a great set of fixtures including coverage in Blank Gameweek 31. What’s not to like? There was a bit of blip last week as Brighton surprisingly shut out the midlands side, but he’d scored in his previous 2 games before that and with 3 games against leaky defences on the horizon, he’s in a good position to add to his 13 goals and 6 assists so far this season. Which might even make him a good differential Captain for GW31…food for thought!
Ace – Kevin De Bruyne – MCI – 10.7m
BUR – Man City at home to Burnley is a fixture that’s always going to attract the Captain’s armband so despite Pep roulette and an incoming UCL fixture against Real Madrid, it’s difficult to overlook KDB for the Ace pick this week. City sorely missed his creativity in the Manchester derby – it seems very clear what a key player he is in this respect. And with City traditionally having a habit of putting The Clarets to the sword (they won the corresponding fixture 5-0 last season and this season’s reverse fixture 4-1 in December) you’d have to think the Belgian would be among the returns. Can Sean Dyche’s men produce a tactical masterclass and spring a surprise result on the Citizens? You’d have to think the chances are small.
Joker – Oilvier Giroud – CHE – 6.5m – avl
Sometimes at this stage of the season FPL becomes like this. One team falls into a rut, ships a few goals, looks fragile at the back and suddenly we’re following them around picking and choosing differentials and captains who play them that gameweek. Last season I felt like I chased Huddersfield around and it’s beginning to feel this way with Villa at the moment, hence why Giroud is this weeks Joker. To be fair, the Frenchman has found some form of late – 2 goals and an assist in his last 3 as he stands in for the injured Tammy Abraham. He’s also nicely priced and I think is a great option either as a 1 week punt if you’re Free Hitting next week then playing your wildcard straight after or even for the longer term as he may get some more mileage through the doubles. As for Villa, well they’re the worst defence in the league and were haplessly thumped by Leicester on Monday. Even talisman Jack Grealish has gone off the boil a bit – something has to change or they’re destined for The Championship again.
Key Fixture Pick – Spurs vs Man United (Sunday 430pm)
Win: Spurs 2/1; Man United 13/10 Draw 12/5
Clean Sheet: Spurs 15/8; Man United 13/5
Selected Anytime Goalscorer Odds: Alli 14/5; Moura 16/5 Martial 8/5; Fernandes 12/5; Ighalo 43/20
The late Sunday game is an intriguing clash as Jose Mourinho welcomes his previous side to North London with both teams vying to get into those highly competitive Champions League spots. Recent history favours The Reds Devils – United won the reverse fixture 2-1 back in GW15 and won by a solitary goal when the teams met in London last season. United are also in the better recent league form having won 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5 while Spurs have only picked up one point from their last 3 matches, though they did produce a fine performance to beat United’s crosstown rivals City 2-0 in GW25.
Spurs assets interest me because of their fixture next week in what is a big blank gameweek. It’s a good fixture too – home to West Ham so I’d be quite keen to cover their attack for that week. Just how is the question. Dele Alli looks the obvious pick – he’s not quite recaptured the form of a couple of seasons back, but has a goal and 2 assists in his last 2,with 8 and 6 of each respectively for this campaign. His 8.3m price point is a bit steep, but is useful for reasons I’ll mention later on. Lucas Moura I guess is the other attacking option – he’s a little cheaper, but hasn’t returned since GW25 with no goals since GW17; not a great record. Finally, Serge Aurier is the standout defensive option. He’s only 5m and has a goal and 6 assists this season; probably just as well as Spurs defence hasn’t been the most solid of late!
For United, I’m most interested in Martial and Fernandes. If you don’t have either at the moment, I’d probably wait until GW32 and this is why getting Alli in for GW31 is a good option. He’s at a similar price point so a simple switch across for GW32 looks a great option, especially as United will have at least one double gameweek and have a superb fixture run. Of the 2, I’d probably slightly favour Fernandes for his set-piece duties though he is 0.5m more expensive. And here’s one that comes with a disclaimer – I’d recommend a United defender from GW32 onwards too! They’ve got 4 clean sheets in their last 5 and I fancy they’ll add to this at the back end of the season. There’s a budget pick with Brandon Williams at 4.1m (though he does come with gametime uncertainty) or a more expensive option at 5.3 of either Maguire or Wan-Bissaka. I’d probably favour the latter of the 2, but I’d actually be tempted to go up to 5.4m and select David De Gea – he could be a great option in the double gameweeks.
This one is tricky to predict – I’m expecting a tight match and will go for 1-0 to United. Sorry Joe!
Best of luck for this week folks – may your arrows be green!
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