With the 2 Manchester clubs having tough games this week, the fantasy premier league captain choice presents some dilemmas.  Here’s some thoughts on where to put the fantasy premier league captain armband this week

Background

Firstly my theory on captain picks is two fold

1.  Pick a captain from a top team home game against a poor team

2.  Pick a player who is a “flat track bully” ie someone who scores well against poor teams.  Rooney or Aguero are the best examples.  Not really enough fantasy premier league games for data to establish that this season though

However there are the exceptions every week

The best games in my mind are

1.  Chelsea v Stoke – Hazard

2.  Spurs v QPR – Defoe Bale Dempsey/Siggy

Others – RVP

Analysis

1.  Hazard

Only an outside chance of rotation given Oscar injury and premier league reluctance plus Mata’s form

2 home games have produced 11 and 13 points respectively.

Apart from Fellaini and Silva (surprisingly) has the best shooting stats in home games.

Stoke ae a mid placed team in terms of defensive stats overall and slightly less in away matches

Was also terrific away to QPR

Doesnt seem a rotation risk at the moment

An excellent option

should you buy him:  Chelsea are 19th in fixtures so is he fixture proof?  His performance in a tough game against QPR assisted this theory but too early as yet.  Would fill a captain hole but not enough data as yet to suggest he will be a keeper

2.  Defoe 

Certain to play with Adebayor injury and no cover

2 points and 5 points in home games so far

home shooting record so far not that great.  Lots of shots but too many outside the box.

QPR have Ferdinand and Fabio injured in Defence

QPR have virtually the worst underlying defensive stats in the league for away games and overall.

Was fantastic in last game against Reading

Another excellent option

3.  Bale

Hard to think he wont play

2 and 1 points from 2 home games.  1 goal in last 17 games

lots of shots in home games but too many outside the box

QPR have Ferdinand and Fabio injured in Defence

QPR have virtually the worst underlying defensive stats in the league for away games and overall.

scored in last game against Reading but not convincing.  Very little shots produced in Lazio game

Too risky

4.  Dempsey/Siggy

Either would be an option if were secure to start.  siggy will probably in my mind but not guaranteed.

too risky

5.  RVP

Hard to believe he wont start

Quality breaks all rules.  Scores home and away irrespective of the opposition

9 and 15 points on the 2 games started

Underlying shooting stats are fantastic

Liverpool underlying defensive stats aren’t too bad but have conceded freely

Did not play for long enough for last week to be worth analysing

always an option its just whether someone is better

Who’s best?

Heres my vote then:

1.  Hazard

2.  Defoe

3.  RVP

4.  Bale

Siggy and Dempsey too risky.

I’m still yet to decide whether to risk RVP or take a 4 point hit to put Hazard in.