Background

Just as a general point.  I got alot of “feedback” shall we say about not putting Suarez in the captain options last week.  The point of my comments now though is not to say that I was right but to explain that I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.  This is why I didn’t include Suarez last week as he was playing away to a top 4 challenging team.  As it was he should have scored and I would be now getting more “feedback” but the theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.

Options

 Suarez

• Will he start?

Yes.  Any issues over the WCQ play off and turning up times seem to be resolved

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

He’s  played 5 games to date and returned in 4.  At home he’s returned in both games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Against Crystal Palace at home he scored in the 3-1 win.  Against WBA  (don’t really count as poor opposition but anyway) he scored a hat trick

• Whats his recent form like

He’s only played 5 games due to his suspensions and its 6 goals and 2 assists so it couldn’t be much better

• Whats his underlying stats like

It’s pretty much between him and Aguero for the best underlying shooting and creating chance stats. Has the ability to get assists if the goal scoring chances

• Whats the opposition defence like

Overall 15 goals conceded in 10 games.  Only 5 teams have conceded more.   Away from home they have been much better than at home only conceding 6 goals in 5 games.  The opposition has been Sunderland (1-0) Newcastle (o-1)  Chelsea (o-2) Palace (4-1) Southampton (0-2).  Despite the  good stats away from home the overall defensive performances have been pretty terrible.  Having seen the Southampton game where a pretty ordinary Southampton attacking side ripped them to pieces I think this will be a big win for Liverpool and Suarez will be at the heart of it.

• Is he an option?

Yes Definitely

Sturridge

• Will he start?

Yes.   No injury issues and Rodgers is committed to playing both him and Suarez

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

He’s  played 10 games to date and returned in 8.  At home he’s returned in 4/5 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far?

Against Stoke he scored the winner in a 1-0 win.  Against Crystal Palace at home he scored in the 3-1 win.

• Whats his recent form like

In the last 5 he’s scored 4 goals and 2 assists

• Whats his underlying stats like

Good but not comparable to Suarez.  Has dropped off the creating chances table a bit

• Whats the opposition defence like

As for Suarez above.  Overall 15 goals conceded in 10 games.  Only 5 teams have conceded more.   Away from home they have been much better than at home only conceding 6 goals in 5 games.  The opposition has been Sunderland (1-0) Newcastle (o-1)  Chelsea (o-2) Palace (4-1) Southampton (0-2).  Despite the  good stats away from home the overall defensive performances have been pretty terrible.  Having seen the Southampton game where a pretty ordinary Southampton attacking side ripped them to pieces I think this will be a big win for Liverpool and Suarez will be at the heart of it.

• Is he an option?

Yes although only if you don’t have Suarez

 Lukaku

• Will he start?

He should do although no absolutely 100%.  He hurt his thigh when it hit Lloris head (how did Lloris stay on btw?)  All the noises coming out suggest he will be fine and with Kone out I cant see Martinez wanting to rely on Jelavic

• How consistent is he generally and away from home?

He’s played 6 games for Everton and returned in 4 so good.  He’s scored in all 3 away games.  His pace is a weapon on the break.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Aston Villa away was probably the only weakish team where he scored.

• Whats his recent form like

He’s only played 6 games for Everton and its 5 goals and 1 assist so good

• Whats his underlying stats like

Pretty  good shooting stats but hasn’t been creating chances like last year.  This is preferable obviously to give more chance of returning if you don’t score.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Overall 21 goals conceded in 10 games.  Only Sunderland  conceded more.  At home they have conceded 10 goals.  They are equal with Sunderland for the most goals conceded.     The opposition has been Tottenham (0-1) Sunderland (3-1)  Swansea (o-2) Fulham (1-4) Arsenal (0-2).   Despite the stats they defended ok in both the games against Arsenal and Spurs.  I expect them to defend strongly but Everton I think will  score 2

• Is he an option?

Yes but cautiously as Palace have shown the ability to defend against the better sides at home rather when they can concentrate on defence and pressing and aren’t as easily opened up by trying to concentrate on attacking

Aguero

• Will he start?

Interesting.  The international break sees Aguero play friendlies in America but I cant see him being over extended in these.  Therefore,  I think he will play given the disasters that happened to City at Stoke and Aston Villa in the only 2 games he hasn’t played

• How consistent is he generally and away from home?

In 9 games played he’s scored or assisted in 7 so excellent.  Away from home he’s returned in every game except the Stoke game where he came on for the last 28 minutes

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Cardiff is the only potential relegation threatened team that he’s played against and he assisted in that.

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.  In the last 5 he’s returned in them all scoring 7 goals and 5 assists.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Fighting it out with Suarez for the best shooting and creating chances underlying stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Overall the worst defence conceding 22 goals conceded in 10 games.    At home they have conceded 10 goals.  The worst in fantasy premier league equal with Palace.     The opposition has been Fulham (0-1) Arsenal (1-3)   Liverpool (1-3) Man Utd (1-2) and Newcastle (2-1).    The Arsenal and Liverpool victories show to the potential score here.  Poyet has galvanised them and the win over Newcastle showed far more fight and team spirit.  However there’s only so far you can take this and I expect City to win comfortably

• Is he an option?

Definitely yes

Summary:

Yes in order:

1.  Suarez

2.   Aguero

3.  Sturridge

4.  Lukaku

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.  Suarez – £1.50

2.  Sturridge – £1.57

2.  Aguero – £1.61

Torres  – £1.61

3.  Lukaku -£1.91

Eto’o £1.91

Lambert £1.91

Soldado £1.91

So my picks are all there.  No real difference in ranking except I’ve ranked Aguero higher than Sturridge although the odds difference is minimal.

Torres I haven’t picked as gametime is always an issue with 3 strikers into 1 place and due to his performance at Newcastle.  Eto’o is just a gametime issue.

Lambert I think there is still an Osvaldo gametime issue and Osvaldo should be fit for the weekend.  Also I don’t think the Hull defence is a pushover at all as City and Spurs found.  Saints while they have been great in defence haven’t exactly been free flowing with the goals.

Soldado is hard to trust given the struggles Spurs have scoring

I hope that gives you some food for thought

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