fantasy premier league GW13 captain choice

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW13 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.  

 fantasy premier league GW13 captain choice

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW13.  Remember it’s a gameweek deadline of Friday 19.00 24 November UK time

The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW13 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Man City £1.20 – Aguero, Jesus, Sane, Sterling, Silva and De Bruyne.  Aguero and Sterling probably are the main gametime risks this week

Man Utd £1.22 –  Lukaku, Pogba

Spurs £1.25 –   Kane, Alli, Eriksen

If you want to see detailed stats on these players you can see it in our player ranking articles for midfielders and forwards

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday afternoon and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.50 – Kane

£1.57 – Jesus, Aguero

£1.85– Lukaku

£2.00 – Rashford, Alli, Lacazette, Sanchez

£2.05 – Sane

£2.10 – Vardy

£2.20 –  Martial, Sterling

£2.25 – Morata

£2.30 – Salah, Benteke

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.  Sorry it was a bit late.  It should have come out Thursday first thing rather than afternoon

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

 Who are the FFGeek contributors picking?

Some thoughts on Kane and Lukaku 

Kane

Kane’s struggles at home against lower placed teams are well documented.  He’s blanked against Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth and Palace.  So not a great start.

The underlying stats don’t really help the situation either.  They were very good against  Burnley and Bournemouth.  Poor against Swansea and downright pathetic against Palace.

With Kane this is about his known quality and believing that he will get over the Wembley issue

WBA are the 10th ranked team away from home but the 4th ranked team in xG conceded which is a surprise.  However their away schedule has been fairly kind with away to Arsenal being the only comparable game.  They were comfortably beaten 2-0 with a 2.44 xGA.  They will play a deep packed defence like Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth and Palace

Lukaku

Lukaku in contrast has been the model of consistency at home against the lower placed teams returning goals against West Ham, Everton Crystal Palace and Newcastle.  He appears to need 2 returns to get bonus points though.

In all those games including Leicester his underlying stats were absolutely excellent.

Brighton are the 6th ranked team away from home in goals conceded and 7th ranked in xG conceded.  Like WBA though their schedule hasn’t been that difficult.  They also played Arsenal away as the only comparable game.   Like WBA they lost 2-0 with an xG conceded of 2.50.

SUMMARY

So Kane is a relatively convincing favourite over Lukaku with the bookies and the polls.  The polls have little competition for the 2.

The stats with Kane’s 4 failures at homes to lower placed teams that pack the defence are well known.  In contrast Lukaku has had no issue with such teams

 On detail they both have some early subbing potential with Lukaku now having Ibra as a back up and Kane Llorente.  Although Lukaku up to now has played 90 minutes in every game

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 Logical review of the stats suggest Lukaku as the best captain.  Fear of missing out on  a Kane big haul and the poll situation is the only things making me even consider Kane.

Unfortunately I’m often governed by fear and the polls which would make me go for Kane.  This may go to the wire with me confirming on twitter

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