fantasy premier league GW24 captain choice

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW24 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.  We also show you the results of the transfer in and out poll

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW24 CAPTAIN CHOICE

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW24:

The bookies see 2 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested followed by a group of 4 teams.  It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW24 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Man City – £1.12  – Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne

Liverpool – £1.30 – Salah, Firmino, Mane

And then the group of 4

Man Utd £1.57 – Lukaku, Lingard, Pogba

Spurs £1.61 – Kane, Alli, Erksen, Son

Chelsea £1.57 – Hazard

Arsenal £1.50 – Lacazette

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds up to £2.30. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.40 – Aguero

£1.75– Kane, Sterling

£1.85 – Salah, Sane

£1.91 – Lacazette

£1.95 – Vardy

£2.00 – Firmino

£2.15 – Hazard, Mane

£2.20 – Lukaku

£2.25 – De Bruyne

£2.30 – Arnautovic

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

If you want to see the full GW24 captain poll use this link

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

 Now updated.   Nothing in the box means no team from them this week.

SOME THOUGHTS ON KANE, AGUERO AND SALAH

KANE

Kane has started 9 away games. He’s returned a goal or assist in 5 /9 games for a total of 10 goals and 0 assists.   In those 5 returning games his scores were 13,13,13 6 and 17. When he scores, he scores big.

In the 9 away games he’s played his underlying stats have surprisingly been below a reasonable goal threat standard 4 times. That was against  Arsenal and Man City and against Watford and Leicester.

The Southampton home defence

Overall Southampton are ranked 15th in goals conceded at home conceding 17.  In expected goals though at home they are 5th

There have been 2 comparable games at home against top 6 sides which Southampton have fared well defensively

Man Utd 0-1 (xGA 1.07 and 9 shots 6 in the box)

Arsenal 1-1 (xGA 0.61 and 11 shots 6 in the box)

It is worth remembering that Spurs beat Southampton 5-2 in the reverse fixture with Kane getting a hat trick

 Van Dijk has now left the club and Yoshida looks like he won’t be available so the Southampton defence is weakened

Aguero

I’ve done a table for Aguero’s home games

Aguero has started 10 home games.  He’s got a goal or assist in 6 of the 10 and 4 of the 8 non top 6 sides.  Surprisingly he’s only got double figure point hauls in 2 games.

 I would say his underlying stats at home have been very patchy with him only getting an acceptable level in 4 of the 10 home games

The Newcastle defence 

Overall Newcastle are ranked 9th equal in goals conceded away conceding 17.  In expected goals away they are 10th

There have been 3 comparable games away against top 6 sides which  Newcastle have been very poor.

Man Utd 1-4  (xGA 2.57 and 16 shots 14 in the box)

Chelsea 1-3  (xGA 3.08 and 23 shots 18 in the box

Arsenal 0-1 (xGA 2.02 and 23 shots 18 in the box)

 Lejuene will miss out and Mbemba is 50/50

The reverse fixture was 0-1 as Newcastle packed the penalty area in a very defensive game plan.

Salah

Salah has started 10 away games and returned a goal or assist in 8 of those games scoring 9 goals and 2 assists. If you remove games against top 6 sides then he’s returned in 8 of the 9 remaining games.  There’s been 3 double figure point hauls in those 10 games.

His goal threat underlying stats  have been exceptional and in only the Brighton game were they less than acceptable

The Liverpool attack has been exceptional away recently with 19 goals in their last 5 away games

The Swansea home defence

Overall Swansea are ranked 15th in goals conceded at home conceding 17.  In expected goals at home they are 17th

Swansea have played 3 comparable sides at home this season:

Man Utd 0-4  (xGA 2.57 and 16 shots 14 in the box)

Man City 0-4  (xGA 3.08 and 23 shots 18 in the box

Spurs 0-2 (xGA 2.02 and 23 shots 18 in the box)

 It’s worth noting that the reverse fixture was 5-0 to Liverpool

 SUMMARY

The bookies favour Kane at £1.40 with Sterling and Kane at £1.75 and Salah at £1.85

The Polls  favour Kane with Aguero about 10% points behind.  Salah quite far back

 Kane is explosive if not particularly consistent.  The Saints defence hasn’t been bad at home at all especially against the top 6 sides but Spurs thrashed them in the reverse fixture 5-2

Aguero has been consistent if not hugely explosive but is up against a side that has performed very badly away from home against top 6 sides

Salah has been incredibly consistent and explosive if not quite in Kane country away.  Swansea have been terrible at home against top 6 sides

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 It’s a very difficult one.  Kane is the most explosive and the poll leader but faces the best defence even if weakened.

Both Aguero and Salah face worse defences with Salah being explosive and consistent but a way down in the polls.

I can’t decide at the moment but likely Kane.

THE TRANSFER IN POLL

By the way you can see my views on who are the most transferred in and out on the fantasy premier league site in my bandwagons and sinking ships article

THE TRANSFER OUT POLL

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