Here’s our fantasy premier league GW38 captain choice article where we look at ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, who the FFGeek contributors are captaining, some stats and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW38 CAPTAIN CHOICE
Here’s the fixtures for GW38:
BOOKIES TEAM WIN ODDS
The top 6 sides standout as the best odds to win:
Spurs – £1.30 – Kane, Alli, Eriksen
Liverpool – £1.20 – Salah, Firmino
Man City – £1.40 – Jesus, Sterling, De Bruyne
Man Utd – £1.36 – Sanchez
Chelsea – £1.61 – Hazard
Arsenal – £1.57 – Aubameyang
THE BOOKIES PLAYER ODDS
Here’s the anytime goal scoring odds from 1 bookmaker. They assume the players start and don’t count assist potential. Odds are of Saturday
£1.40 – Kane, Salah
£1.73 – Aubameyang
£1.85 – Sterling, Firmino, Rashford
£1.91 – Jesus, Mounie
£2.00 – Tosun
£2.05 – Giroud and J Ayew
£2.10 – Martial
£2.20 – Arnautovic, Zaha
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll. It’s worth remembering it didn’t go live until Friday meaning everyone had full information on GW37 when voting. It was a very good turnout for such a short turnaround.
It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you. I also show how many vote so you can see how representative it is which some other polls hide
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
Here’s the summary of the other main FPL advice site polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain
If you want to see the full GW38 captain poll use this link
|Player||Site 1 %||FFGeek %||Site 2 %||Site 3 %|
WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?
I’ll fill this in once I have everyone’s teams and tweet having done so. Now added below
SALAH VS KANE
Salah is home to Brighton and Kane home to Leicester.
Just starting on gametime with both players. Liverpool need a point to secure a top 4 finish and it’s impossible to envisage Salah not starting. Poch has said Spurs want to finish 3rd and Kane will want to go for the golden boot despite being 3 goals behind. Either are liable for an early substitution I guess if circumstances dictate that there’s nothing to be gained from continuing to play but that’s impossible to predict
Key stats comparison
The table refers to home games only against non top 6 sides. The reference to last 6 games is also the last 6 home games against non top 6 sides
|Consistent||7/13 (54%)||10/12 (83%)|
|Explosive||3/13 (23%)||6/12 (50%)|
|NPxG per 90||0.84||0.77|
|xA per 90||0.12||0.3|
|Last 6 FPL pts||49||72|
|Last 6 NPxG Av||0.76||0.49|
|Last 6 xA Av||0.04||0.38|
Brighton away defence vs the top 6.
Leicester away defence vs the top 6
So gametime wise I believe they will both start although the amount of minutes may depend on circumstances with Liverpool wanting to qualify for the top 4 and Spurs finish 3rd. That just can’t be predicted.
The bookies have them both at £1.40 to score at anytime
Polls favour Salah but the FFGeek poll to me is the most accurate prediction of what FPL managers will do as it was started after GW37 finished. That poll is very close. Poll 1 started on Monday for whatever reason.
The stats over the season clearly favour Salah. The last 6 home non top 6 teams stats are interesting. Salah has easily won that on points although the Watford game does distort it. Its interesting to see though that Salah’s goal threat stats have fallen off in that period. That’s probably his only negative and if you look overall 8 of his last 10 games overall have seen very good underlying stats. Kane is similar though if you look at all his last 10 games then 8 have good underlying stats.
Both should have pens although if Milner is on the pitch I guess he could take it if the situation was tense.
Interestingly the defence favours Kane. Leicester were truly awful away at Palace and at Man City and look like a team that are sleep walking to the end of the season. Brighton’s 1 game v Man City after being safe saw 3 goals conceded although an improved xGA. How their new found safety affects their performance v Liverpool is the unknown.
At the moment my choice is Salah as he’s just been so consistent and explosive. I think the extra rest and not having a midweek game will be of great benefit as well. Anecdotally teams seem to be affected by having midweek games from what I’ve seen although that’s not data proof just a feeling of what I’ve seen.
The Leicester stats and recent performances have surprised me by their awfulness though and that’s my only hesitation
THE TRANSFER IN AND OUT POLL RESULTS
Hits and Chips Polls
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