Here’s our regular contributor to the site Rob Reid (also known as the FPL Vet) with his monthly fantasy premier league review covering January. Rob has an excellent FPL history finishing with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before
fantasy premier league – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) with his January review
REFLECTIONS ON FPL 2016/17 JANUARY
Here’s the fifth in my series on monthly articles reflecting on the previous months fantasy football action. Anyone who’s read a few of my previous articles know that I’m quite into reflecting back on what’s gone to try and look at where I can improve my team going forwards and I’ve found these monthly reviews quite useful. There’s a small degree of statistical analysis in it, but it’s more a series of light-hearted observations based on watching games and looking at how players are performing that then guide my ongoing strategy. I also make some fun informal awards to the Player of the Month, One to Watch for next month and a Donkey Award! I hope you find it useful and any comments are of course greatly welcomed.
A slightly stop/start month with the frenetic holiday period, followed by the FPL oasis of calm that is the FA Cup 3rd round. The transfer window is also now in full effect and it’s all been oddly quiet so far. You know there’s not much happening when the big news is about Saido Berahino and Jose Fonte swapping one mid-table club for another! I’m sure things will liven up a little on deadline day, canary yellow ties and Harry Redknapp notwithstanding. The second Wildcard is of course now available. Some people have clicked red early and tidied the squad up, eagerly chasing green arrows. Others are going for it once the transfer window has ended, while some of us are patiently resisting the urge, waiting carefully for the late season Double Gameweeks. How are you going to use yours?
IT’S MOVING MONTH
The general consensus amongst some of the FPL community is that this has been ‘moving month.’ The large spread of scores amongst the FFGeek’s 10 Top Managers he follows reflects this somewhat; this is down to there being a fairly small core ownership of 5 or 6 first team players thus leaving openings for differential picks. Couple this with increasing numbers of ghost teams and you have a recipe for good potential jumps up the overall rankings.
DEFENCE IS NOW A DIFFERENTIAL
I know I bang on about this a lot, but the last 3 weeks have highlighted this somewhat. Chelsea coverage now forms part of the core ownership, but money shrewdly invested elsewhere is proving profitable. Look for runs of good fixtures and players with attacking potential on top of this. The likes of Everton, WBA and Arsenal for example have recently provided a balance of players that provide good clean sheet potential and attacking returns combined lower % ownership.
PLAN YOUR TRANSFERS CAREFULLY
FPL veterans start to get very cautious with their transfers around the end of January and there is good reason for this: the EFL cup final and later rounds of the FA Cup = blank gameweeks, rotation and injuries. At the moment Gameweek 28 for example looks like it could be very lean in terms of clubs with league fixtures. My advice would be to look at the fixture calendar/planner in the FFGeek FPL calendar and think ahead – if there’s a choice of players it may prove wise to bring in someone who may cover an upcoming blank gameweek.
THE CHALLENGERS ARE FALTERING
The other story of the last month has been the chasing pack losing ground. Chelsea seem to have put their defeat at Spurs firmly behind them (as well as all the media talk around a certain Spaniard) and have kicked on out front. All the chasing teams however seem to be tripping up here and there. Liverpool have had a couple of shocking results, Pep seems to have lost his touch at City and United have needed some late goals simply just to hang on to the coat-tails of the Top 5. As a result, FPL returns have been inconsistent from these teams. The North London teams have fared slightly better with their attacking assets proving better from an FPL point of view, but they are still a long way back – it seems to be Chelsea’s title to lose.
THE RELEGATION DOGFIGHT IS HOTTING UP
Hull, Palace, Sunderland and Swansea are all in deep trouble, with Boro, Burnley and Leicester all in danger of being sucked in as well. The net result of this though is that these clubs present us with captain opportunities! One well used tactic last season was simply to captain an attacking player who was playing Aston Villa and the same may be applicable this year. For example, Sunderland just look plain awful at the moment so it is a good ploy to try and ensure you carry attacking coverage from their opponents each week and also strongly consider them for the armband. And if you are unsure, of course there is always the Plan B of just captaining Alexis Sanchez every week!
TO KUN OR NOT TO KUN THAT IS THE QUESTION?
Has Aguero lost his mojo? Just 1 return in 4 for the £12.8m priced City star has many of questioning his FPL future. It’s certainly a large investment for someone who isn’t returning, though his low output is perhaps more symptomatic of his clubs struggles rather than his personal stats. I strongly suspect that if City return to form then Aguero will be at the heart of this and his returns will pick up. For now, we bide our time as with Zlatan, Kane and Costa all returning regularly, there are slightly less risky (and cheaper) options than the little Argentine.
PLAYER OF THE MONTH
Dele Alli has been simply sensational this month. He’s now returned in 6 consecutive games, hitting double figures in 3 of these. It’s certainly a welcome return to the form of last season and with him playing in such an advanced position (essentially as a second striker) these returns should continue. With 24% ownership and a price tag that’s risen £0.7m in the last 5 weeks, he’s not far off being a must-have player. Honourable mention to Alexis Sanchez who has continued his fantastic form – I loved that winning penalty against Burnley, coolest guy in the stadium!
ONE TO WATCH
I’ve gone for a defender again this week and I’ve picked £5.6m Everton full-back Seamus Coleman. He often gets overlooked in favour of set-piece taker Leighton Baines, but make no mistake this guy has good attacking potential as well – he has 4 goals and 1 assist this season and only 6.5% ownership. Everton have some great fixtures coming up, with only Spurs from the Top 6 in the next 7 gameweeks and they are also guaranteed a fixture in the potentially lean Gameweek 28. Your other Everton options are of course the aforementioned Baines (same price as Coleman, 2 goals, 1 assist and has pens); the gametime security of £5m Ashley Williams, though he’s not attracting bonus points at the Toffees like he did at Swansea and the cheap but less gametime secure Mason Holgate – if he holds his place he’s a bargain at £4.1m.
DONKEY AWARD
Diving into a 2-footed uncontrolled challenge under the new tougher laws is pretty brainless. You’re heading for a straight red card aside from the more important fact that you’re running the risk of injuring a fellow player. Granit Xhaka was the culprit against Burnley, but what is even more concerning though is his the fact this was his 9th sending off in top game in the last 3 years. Wenger must think very carefully regarding the Swiss’ future – he seems to be a total liability and it’s the Golden Carrot for him this month, but he shares it with the 2 FPL managers who triple captained him last week. To put it simply, why?!
MY TEAM
Finally, a quick update on how I’m doing. A decent month with 4 out of 5 green arrows and an improvement in ranking from 407k to 143k – pretty pleased with this. A gameweek score of 62 in GW22 and a team value of £103.1m. My defenders in particular have done very well over this period with returns of 25, 43 and 31 from my keeper and defence in the last 3 gameweeks and have kind of bailed my injury-ridden attack. Hopefully this from will continue, but you never know in this game! So that’s it from me for the monthly article, but I’ll try to have something else ready for the upcoming FA Cup weekend. Best of luck for the next month!
Thanks for the excellent article Rob and good luck this gameweek
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