With the gameweek 26 double game week for Liverpool now over you’ve probably all made your mind up about which one in the Suarez Sturridge choice you’re going for but if you haven’t then here’s some thoughts on the subject for meI’m going to give you some general back ground stats and then analyse  the underlying game stats in games that they have both started since Sturridge has joined.  I’m going to discount the Arsenal game which is the only game that Suarez has been moved to the flank which was the early worry when Sturridge joined.

These “comparison games” are

Liverpool 5 Norwich 0

Man City 2 Liverpool 2

Liverpool 5 Swansea 0

Basic Suarez Sturridge stats

Suarez £10.8m (36.5% ownership)

Overall season stats:  2323 minutes 18 goals 7 assists (goal or assist per 92 minutes) 24 bonus points.  Total points 161.    Return consistency 56%

3 comparison games:  2 goals 2 assists 5 bonus points.  Total 25 points

Sturridge £7.8m (9.2% ownership)

Overall season stats:  531 minutes 5 goals and 2 assists (goal or assist every 106 minutes) 1 bonus point.  Total points 43.  Return consistency 80%

3 comparison games:  3 goals 2 assists 1 bonus point. Total 21 points

Suarez is 2nd only to RVP in total points and is top of the overall and the last 6 underlying stats.  The 3 comparison games are fairly even in returns from both players

Underlying stats for the comparison games

 Liverpool 5 Norwich 0

Suarez had the highest average position

Sturridge had the better shooting stats

Suarez had far more pen box touches

Suarez  was far superior in chances created

Man City v Liverpool

Suarez had the highest average position

Suarez had the better shooting stats marginally

Suarez had far more pen box touches

Sturridge  had more chances created

Liverpool 5 Swansea 0

Sturridge had the highest average position

Sturridge  had far better shooting stats

Sturridge had marginally more pen box touches

Suarez had far more chances created

Overall

Sturridge had the better shooting stats over the 3 games by a reasonable proportion.

Suarez over the 3 games probably had 50% more pen box touches

Suarez had double the chances created for team mates

Summary

Firstly 2 home games which were hammerings and an away game to the best defence is hardly the quality, variation or amount of data you want to make a decision on over Suarez Sturridge.  However discounting the Arsenal game, the early games saw alot of swapping positions during the game between the 2 players which is why Suarez had the most forward position.  However the Swansea game was different in that Sturridge played the furtherest forward position with Suarez playing between the lines and becoming a creative striker.  Hence the huge amount of chances created.  On these 3 games alone you would argue that Sturridge is the better bet especially at £3m less.

However these 3 games are difficult games to make an assessment on to make a  Suarez Sturridge choice.  Lets not forget that Suarez with maybe Aguero is 2nd only to RVP for quality in fantasy premier league and possess an all round game and involvement that is far superior to Sturridge.  Hence the bonus point differential in the 3 games.  Lets also not forget that Suarez is the leader in virtually all the striker underlying stats categories as well with his only weakness games like the Europa game during the week when he just cant put the ball in the net

The next series of games will be the testing ground for the 2.  I have kept Suarez in my imaginary wildcard team and in my mind he is the safer option.  However the riskier option of going for  Sturridge has the benefit of freeing  up value in your team and is also mitigated by the fact that he looks like he will be the striker at the top of the formation and therefore should get better and more chances than Suarez so its certainly a reasonable gamble to take him instead of Suarez.  With a significant ownership differential this Suarez Sturridge decision which wont be made with as much data as you would ideally like could be the ones that catch your opponents in your league

here’s the next fixtures

Good luck no matter what decision you take on Suarez Sturridge