Captain analysis – Fantasy Premier League and Sky Sports Fantasy Football


,

Here’s my captain analysis for fantasy premier league and Sky Sports fantasy football.  You’ll remember that in Sky Sports fantasy football you can have 2 captains in one game week

Fantasy premier league

With it being a double game week for Chelsea in fantasy premier league then here’s only 1 team in contention for the captains armband.  especially when you consider the games are Hull at home and Villa at home.

However the complication is Man Utd away in GW2 which means Mourinho could be tempted to rotate.  Therefore,  the starting point will be looking at who’s likely to play 2 games. Unfortunately there’s no science or stats I can throw at you for this, there’s going to be some views taken based on limited data.  So The only person guaranteed in my mind is Cech and although I think there’s a  good chance of 2 clean sheets a GK as a captain is a big step even for a conservative fantasy premier league manager like me.  Next likely to play 2 games is Ashley Cole although but its not totally out of the question that Bertrand could play against Villa  I still cant see a defender as a captain in fantasy premier league especially as I think Villa have some  potential to score

So who out of the attacking players is likely to play twice.  I’m ruling out the 3 strikers of Lukaku, Ba and Torres as I just can’t see any of them playing twice.  Especially as Mourinho has stated his preference for 4-2-3-1 which would obviously make 3 players in to 1 position.

Therefore lets narrow it down  to the attacking midfielders then. I think the main 4 will be Hazard, Mata, Oscar and Schurrle.  Mata and Oscar went to the confederations cup so had a slightly longer break.  I just cant see Schurrle playing both games given he is a new boy.    There’s also the theory that Mata doesn’t work as well in the Mourinho pressing and direct fast counter attacking system.

Lets take a look at last season stats for Mata and Hazard

Hazard (£9.5m)

  • Goals and assists least year:  9 goals 16 assists.  Time per point scored last year:  14 mins .  Rotation risk: high.   fixture ease ranking: 17th.  Consistency 55%

Mata (£10.5m) 

  • Goals and assists least year:  11 goals 18 assists.  Time per point scored last year:  13 mins .  Rotation risk: high.   fixture ease ranking: 17th.  Consistency 83%

So Mata has the better stats but to me seems less likely to play both games than Hazard due to the extended break and Hazards style of play being more suitable for Mourinho.  Additionally Hazards home form was fantastic against poor teams where Mata was much more of an all round scorer home and away

Its not the science I would like but I’m going for Hazard.

Sky Sports fantasy football

When I did some research in to the the best returning players in a gameweek in fantasy premier league the main pattern that emerged was that, unsurprisingly  top 4 teams playing against relegation threatened teams are the best bet for big hauls. Interestingly it didn’t seem to matter home and away although some players have preference for home or away.  For example Bale is better away , Hazard  home

So starting with that criteria the best games are in my mind are those below.  In addition RVP is virtually always a captain option.

Saturday:

Arsenal v Aston Villa – Walcott injury doubt

Swansea v Man Utd  – RVP

Sunday:

Crystal Palace v Spurs – Soldado

Monday:

Man City v Newcastle – difficult to predict starting line

Chelsea v Hull – difficult to predict starting line up.

Wednesday:

Chelsea v Aston Villa – difficult to predict starting line up

I imagine that picking  RVP would then allow you to put in Hazard and potentially get 2 captain games out of it whereas picking Soldado will only allow 1 game.  For that reason I’m picking RVP

However lets look at RVP’s and Soldado stats,  plus Palace and Swansea, just to check

RVP

  • Goals and assists least year:  26 goals 15 assists.  Time per point scored last year:  12 mins .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 19th.  Consistency 89%

Fantastic consistency so he’s always a good bet.  Nani, Young and Rooney doesn’t hep the service but Giggs and Zaha isn’t a bad back up although I would be happier with Kagawa or Rooney behind the striker as I think they will give better service than Welbeck if he starts.

Swansea were the 5th worst home defence last year conceding 26 goals in 19 games and only recording 5 clean sheets.  Their underlying stats also reflected that so it wasn’t just bad luck

There’s obviously no premier league data on Palace but they weren’t that great defensively in the Championship so I expect them to be one of the worst in the league. Here’s my defensive summary in an article on them.

 

Defensively they were nowhere near as strong as there attacking exploits, conceding 62 goals.  11 teams in the division conceded less overall.

At home they had the 3rd best points record and scored more goals than another team.  However their defending again let them down and they conceded 31 goals in 23 games.  Only 6 teams conceded more at home.

Away from home there were not good. Their points record was only the 15th best out of 24 teams. They scored less than a goal a game away from home and only 2 teams scored less.   Defence away from home wasn’t quite as bad but they still conceded 31 goals, the 9th best in the division at home.

Soldado was the 5th top goal scorer in La Liga last year and scored 24 goals.  He looked good in pre-season and seems to have penalty duties.  I’m therefore expecting a big season from him.

So although all things being equal I would go for Soldado.  However with the chance of 2 games for Hazard I will pick RVP for Saturday and change to Hazard on Sunday morning

As an additional bit of data lets look at what William Hill are offering now for an anytime goal scorer.  Put it in decimals for simplicity

Negredo – 1.61 – selection doubt

Torres v Hull – 1.61  – selection doubt

Aguero – 1.73 – selection doubt

Ba  v Hull- 1.80 – selection doubt

All 1.91

Aspas – selection doubt

Sturridge – is an option although the Stoke away defence last year wasn’t too bad so I would like to see how they perform

Giroud – is an option but still a little selection doubt after being left out of the last pre-season game

Walcott – injury doubt

RVP – an option

Soldado – an option

Lukaku – selection doubts

Dzeko – selection doubts

So that does give us some comfort that we’ve considered the right people

That’s it hope it helped your choices

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-newly-promoted-sides-crystal-palace/