Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW38 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW38
There’s summary at the end if all the analysis bores you. I won’t be offended!
Here’s the fixtures for GW38:
Here’s the 5 teams that the bookies have as strong favourites to win with £1 invested:
Liverpool (Middlesboro H ) – £1.28
Chelsea (Sunderland H) – £1.41
Man City (Watford A) – £1.50
Arsenal (Everton H) – £1.61
Spurs (Hull A) – £1.50
The bookies odds
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds for the attacking players. I’ve gone wider than normal as gametime security is a doubt all over the place. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Friday morning and a different bookie than the player ranking stats. Remember the odds assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.50 – Costa
£1.57 – Aguero
£1.70 – Sanchez, Hazard, Jesus
£1.85 – Coutinho, Sturridge
£1.91 – Vardy, Kane
£1.95 – Pedro
£2.00 – Origi, Firmino, Gabbiadini
£2.25 – Alli, Llorente
Thats alot of players under £2.00
The FPL advice site polls
The FFGeek poll first. It’s worth noting it was only set on Friday morning after the games ended so full information was available on voting. It does mean there are limited numbers of votes. Some of the the other sites did this
Here’s the FFGeek poll
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:
Sites 1 and 4 started their polls at the beginning of the week. FFGeek and site 3 started Friday
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic
Kane has 4 entries. Costa 3. Sanchez and Coutinho 2.
Detailed player and defence stats
Here were going to look at the players in more detail and the defences they will meet. We will focus on Coutinho, Sanchez and Kane
So Kane and Sanchez share out the best of these stats.
Squawka underlying stats
These are underlying stats over the whole season
Kane has the best shooting stats with Coutinho on the creating chances side
Sanchez detail and Everton away defence
There seems to be no doubt Sanchez will play.
Here’s Sanchez at home to the top sides. Everton are in that category, albeit the lesser defensively, of most of the sides.
The Chelsea game was the fixture that triggered 3-4-3 with Conte.
Here’s the Everton away defence against the top sides:
So Sanchez’s form isn’t that encouraging but Everton have certainly been vulnerable and have nothing to play for.
Coutinho detail and Middlesboro away defence
Impossible to think Coutinho won’t play in such a crunch game
Here’s Coutinho at home to the lower placed sides.
So a bit feast or famine but he does have the potential for a big score.
Here’s Middlesboro away to the top sides. Unfortunately only the Chelsea game has beeen with Agnew in charge. The others have been with the more defensive minded Karanka. So not as much data as you’d like. However they have conceded 11 in their last 3 away games.
Kane detail and Hull defence at home against the top sides
Although Spurs have nothing to play for, I expect Kane to play to secure the golden boot race.
Here’s Kane away against the bottom sides
So not very helpful considering injuries co-incided with half those games
Here’s the Hull defence at home. Again not helpful as Silva was only in charge for the Liverpool victory. He drastically improved their home record. However now relegated it is difficult to predict their intensity levels
SUMMARY AND FFGEEK CHOICE
So unfortunately when the choice is difficult often the data is unclear or incomplete and rarely does it massively shine for 1 player.
So starting with gametime. Arsenal and Liverpool have must win games so it seems inconceivable Sanchez and Coutinho won’t start. Kane should start as he will want to be playing to further secure the golden boot. However Spurs have nothing to play for so in theory he is the most at risk of being rested. It’s also a short turnaround for Spurs which could have fatigue effects or rotation possibilities.
None of the 3 defences have anything to play for other than pride.
The bookies have Costa clear favourite. I haven’t assessed Costa as there has to be some risk attached to his starting.
Of the 3 we are assessing the bookies have Sanchez ahead followed by Coutinho and then Kane.
My metrics for assessing players has Kane clearly ahead with Sanchez and Coutinho well back.
Underlying stats favour Kane from a shooting perspective clearly with Coutinho much more of an assist threat
The detailed stats assessing players against like opposition and defences likewise don’t give a clear picture but probably favour Coutinho.
In those detailed stats, Sanchez has not fared well at home to the top placed sides although Everton have conceded quite a bit against top opposition
Coutinho has been feast or famine against the lower placed sides either getting double figures or blanking. The Middlesboro defence has fared reasonably well against the top sides away but all of those games except Chelsea were with Karanka in charge where defence was the only tactic. Agnew has only been in charge for the crunch Middlesborough game where Chelsea could have scored any amount of goals.
Kane has been injured for most of the games against the lower placed sides but the results in 3 games have seen a massive haul, 1 blank and 1 assist.
Often in these cases it comes down to form or fixture when choosing. All 3 can make claims to recent form although both Sanchez and Kane have had their stutterings at home and away respectively over the season. However if you throw in the fixture then Coutinho is the clear winner there
Lastly in terms of additional responsibilities. Kane has penalties and some direct free kicks. Coutinho has a good share of set pieces. Sanchez may have pens and some direct free kicks.
I don’t have Coutinho at the moment so I probably go with Kane. If I introduce Coutinho for either Alli or Hazard then I may make him captain. It’s a difficult one and you can make a case for any of the options. If I don’t put Coutinho in then I’m likely to go for Kane.
It’s hard to say who the least rank damaging option in. Sanchez is the most owned I imagine against the active managers but Coutinho and Kane have been transferred in. The polls are a little unclear on who will be the most captained. All 3 have the potential to post massive scores.
Good luck whoever you choose. I may not do my team until Sunday but at the earliest it will be is Saturday