fantasy premier league GW18 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships


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Here’s our fantasy premier league GW18 tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league GW18 tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Stats definition:

PP90: The FPL points per 90 minutes played for 18/19.

Av mins last 4: The average minutes played in the last 4 games. Coming on as sub or not being played for non injury related matters will count

Consistency: the number of times a goal or assist has been returned in a match as a proportion of the total starts.

ATGS/CS* odds GW18: Anytime goal scorer odds or clean sheet odds* for defenders for GW18.

Fixture ease: The fixture ranking by difficulty for GW18-23 and GW18-20. See our fixture ease article

Prices as of Tuesday 18 December

The Bandwagons

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.




fantasy premier league GW18 tips

Sane

The stats really speak for themselves.  The PP90 and the underlying stats are nothing short of ridiculous. At the moment, with Mendy out, he’s been given the task of providing the width on the left flank.  That has seen his gametime massively improve and he has started 6 of the last 7.  Pep has become aware of that workload and his importance and that has seen him have a couple of relatively early 52 and 65 minute subbings off in the last 2 games though.

Despite that wide left position, only in those last 2 games have we seen a diminished xG and shot volumes which have been excellent before that.  Whether that’s any pointer or just a function of the reduced minutes is difficult to say but in a world of massive Pep gametime uncertainty he’s a pretty good option at the moment

Crystal Palace (H)
Leicester (A)
Southampton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (H)
Huddersfield (A)

Felipe Anderson

After a bit of a slow start it’s 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 matches.  He’s a tricky one to assess going forward though.  As far as goal threat goes his xG is pretty ordinary to say the least and this season he is massively over performing his underlying shooting stats.  He’s scored 5 goals from 16 shots against an expected goal value of just over 2 in that recent run.  Now he has shown an ability to over perform his stats historically and some of it is catch up of his dry spell at the start of the season but even allowing for all that he is in nose bleed territory.

He is a big creative force though with some set piece responsibility but that is a very different prospect if the goals slow down.

Great fixtures though if you are going to roll the dice with him.  As long as you believe he can continue performing.

Watford (H)
Southampton (A)
Burnley (A)
Brighton (H)
Arsenal (H)
Bournemouth (A)

Snodgrass

Snodgrass has started 8 of the last 9 games and played 90 minutes in pretty much all of them.  He’s also on a great run of form with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 games.  However his goal threat underlying stats in reality are very poor although, like Anderson, he has shown an ability to over perform them.  However he’s only taken more than 1 shot in a game once in his last 8 starts which is fairly damning.  He does create chances though and with the fixtures and his ability to over perform his shooting stats you may think that’s enough to justify a transfer in.

Watford (H)
Southampton (A)
Burnley (A)
Brighton (H)
Arsenal (H)
Bournemouth (A)

Doherty

Doherty has been a revelation this season with 5 clean sheets and 3 goals and 3 assists.  In fact in attacking underlying stats terms he’s outperforming Marcos Alonso.

It’s just the timing that is a bit surprising.  Home to Liverpool doesn’t seem to be the time to bring in a defender and the clean sheet odds of £5.80 seem to reflect that.  Fixtures aren’t great overall either.

Otherwise you’ve got a great attacking force in the best cheapish defence.

Liverpool (H)
Fulham (A)
Spurs (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man City (A)
Leicester (H)

Ings

A quite painful write considering Ing’s 13 points were on my bench for GW17.

For a guy at his price his returns and underlying stats are very good and as are the next 2 fixtures.

He’s hard to benchmark against his previous stats though as obviously Liverpool aren’t a fair comparison and his full PL season before that was Burnley in 14/15.  His underlying stats then were ok but not comparable to what he’s currently doing.

The new manager’s pressing ambitions should suit him well.  He may be hard to evaluate but the next 2 and the price do mitigate the risk.

Huddersfield (A)
West Ham (H)
Man City (H)
Chelsea (A)
Leicester (A)
Everton (H)

The Sinking Ships

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.




fantasy premier league GW18 tips

Alexander Arnold

Injured and the rather unhelpful words from the club are

“It is day by day how we judge it.”

Unfortunately in the space of a 15 days or so there are 4 gameweeks so holding a player with no return date when the gameweeks come thick and fast is a difficult one.  In addition to that the rest of your FPL team will suffer rotation due to the fixture congestion so it’s a double problem.

With Alexander Arnold you can even add in the further risk that Klopp was very strong in his praise for Alexander Arnolds replacement in Clyne.  It should be remembered that Moreno lost his place virtually permanently when he got injured to Robertson.  I don’t think it’s a fair comparison but it’s worth remembering.

Wolves (A)
Newcastle (H)
Arsenal (H)
Man City (A)
Brighton (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

Bellerin

Taken off v Southampton with an injury and Emery said the following:

“He has a small injury. He is going to be some weeks off I think”

Some weeks off at this stage of the season is a number of gameweeks so sales are not surprising.

I imagine £4.5m   Lichtsteiner will take his place although he too is currently flagged with a knock.  The EFL Cup may give some more clues.  In theory, £4.5m is a great price for an Arsenal defender with a decent fixture run but the defence has been poor with only 3 clean sheets.

Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (H)
West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)

Mitrovic

3 returning games in the last 11 after a great start to the season is the reason for FPL managers frustration.  Also there’s no doubt that Ranieri will take a more defensive mindset which could affect his returns even further although Mitrovic  did score twice in Ranieris first game against Southampton.

However his underlying stats have matched his poor returns for sometime and since the Southampton game his underlying stats in the 4 following games continued to be poor even if he did start to have decent shot volumes.

What is true though is that the immediate fixtures are pretty good.  It’s just whether you think the early season Mitrovic is still there somewhere.

Newcastle (A)
Wolves (H)
Huddersfield (H)
Arsenal (A)
Burnley (A)
Spurs (H)

Aubameyang

Even though Burnley seem to have tightened up in recent games it’s still a brave man who will sell Aubameyang before this game.  I would at least wait to see if he lines up in the EFL cup on Wednesday to see if that gives a chance that he would be rested.

Aubameyang has started the last 5 games as a CF and has 3 goals and 2 assists in that time plus posted some pretty good underlying stats, including shot volumes, in the process.  The trouble is that the last 3 games have only seen 1 assist although he really should have scored at least once against Southampton.

However personally for me this is not a sell fixture especially if it looks like he will start and he is an FPL captain favourite

Burnley (H)
Brighton (A)
Liverpool (A)
Fulham (H)
West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)

David Silva 

Injured with no return date at the moment and again the uncertainty is compounded by the number of games over the next couple of weeks.  So transfers out aren’t surprising.

The injury will probably mean that the CMs will be a mixture of Bernardo, De Bruyne and Gundogan in Pep’s 4-1-4-1 or 4-1-2-3 depending on how you look at it.  That should mean more gametime for Bernardo and Gundogan than if Silva wasn’t injured as David Silva and De Bruyne would be the preferred CMs if both fit.

Crystal Palace (H)
Leicester (A)
Southampton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Wolves (H)
Huddersfield (A)

See also our fixture ease article as well as who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team

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