fantasy premier league GW33 – a few words on various FPL things and the FFGeek team


With the short gameweeks over and myself back from travelling it will be back to normal fantasy premier league GW33 articles on the site this week.  However I thought it was worth using that message as a basis for a few words on various different topical FPL matters

fantasy premier league GW33 – a few words on various FPL things

Fear factor in FPL team planning and Harry Kane

One of the things I try to do as an FPL manager is to avoid situations which could end up in big drops of ranks as much as those that increase ranks. In seasons gone by that seems easier than it is now. The choice of players who can suddenly produce massive point hauls just seems to have expanded this season.

This gameweek 32 provided a perfect example with fear factor of a big overall rank drop caused by my team not having Aguero at home to Hull. We all know his, at least previous seasons, propensity for big FPL point hauls and this felt like it had the potential for 1 again.  In the end I avoided trying to get him in  as it just didn’t make sense from a team planning point of view. Luckily I escaped relatively unscathed.  This season on about 6 or 7 occasions I’ve avoided putting in a massive captain favourite so I can keep on improving my team.  I’ve got away with it on all but 1 occasion and that was a biggie, Lukaku against Bournemouth. I also got burned selling Sanchez earlier in the season but that was for different reasons.

Watching from behind the sofa 

As I was travelling I couldn’t see the games cores which is just as well as I can’t stand the stress of just waiting for that person you don’t have to score.  This season more than any I’ve refused to look at scores until the games are over rather than watch them behind the sofa.  Any back to the point that I was trying to make.

Anyway my point is that this season there are just too many dangerous players to have everyone and just changing your team ever week to get the current dangerous player in just doesn’t work in the long term.  So this season I’ve tried to consciously minimise the situations where I do sacrifice team planning to do a one off transfer to avoid a potential big rank drop.  It’s not fun doing so but it’s unavoidable.

I’m saying this all in the context of overall rank.  If a mini league is your objective and you’re leading then you may want to block dangerous players your opponents have at the expense of team planning at this stage of the season.

BTW I understand FPL is only a game and there are more important things in the world but it does stress me I can’t help it!  I’m too invested!

Harry Kane

This week though sees another saga brewing of similar proportions.  Harry Kane at home against Bournemouth.  He’s 2nd in the transfer in stakes so far this week.  There’s no doubting his ability to get a big score and there’s no doubting Bournemouths ability to ship a big score.  However I generally like to sell players when they have a bad fixture so do I want to sell

Carroll away to Sunderland
Lukaku home to Burnley
Ibrahimovic DGW34
Siggy away at Watford
Alli at home to Bournemouth
Sanchez with a DGW35/36

Apart from Ibra all scenarios involve taking a hit which I really hate.  I could sell Ibra and buy him back for GW34 which I haven’t totally ruled out but what I really want to do is sort out DGW34 and DGW35/36 and ditch Holebas, Brunt and Foster. Not use 2 transfers like that.

Interestingly the celebrity manager in the articles I do on 10 top FPL managers  this week went into the gameweek without Aguero, Ibrahimovic and Alli and still came out pretty unscathed by captaining Lukaku.  He virtually never takes hits and one thing he does have is bottle

Different types of midfielders




There seems to be 3 different types of midfielders

The goal scorers (Alli, Mane Walcott, Pedro)

The assist based set piece midfielders who also score a little (Erksen, De Bruyne, Siggy, Barkley, Tadic, Coutinho)

The FPL classified midfilders who play as strikers at various times (Sanchez, Firmino, King, Son, Antonio)

I listened to an interesting debate on a forum about the celebrity manager and criticisms of his transfers.  His midfield seems to be focused on the assist based midfielders.  Interestingly I also saw an interview with a very successful FPL manager who said that he favoured those same types of midfielders principally because it gave you more opportunities to score points in different ways.

However I’m wondering given the success of all those in the striker category whether they are worth a risk as soon as they start or seem likely to start as a striker.  Sanchez, Firmino Son and King have all done exceptionally well as strikers.

As a matter of interest the only players who have done the “double double” of 10 goals and 10 assists so far are Sanchez and Firmino.  I also expect Hazard to as well

Short termism

Lukaku was a good example of a player who was criticised extensively after the last 2 performances prior to his 13 point FPL haul this week.  Although I don’t have the transferred out numbers seemed to be a target for sales with loads of stats rolled out about how many shots he had etc.

It will be interesting to see how Sanchez gets on tonight against Palace as there is a real bandwagon against him generally at the moment although he hasn’t been sold in great numbers.  He does have some underlying stats issues though.

It’s worth remembering that even the most expensive players only return a goal or assist in 50-60% of games so a couple of games without returning shouldn’t be a reason to sell in isolation.

Coverage

This does bring me to a specific point about the widely used term of coverage.  2 examples this season have been Walcott instead of Sanchez and Pedro instead of Hazard.  Both have ended in tears. With Pedro after a good run blanking in the last 4 while Hazard has got 28 pts in the same 3 games he played.  The Walcott coverage argument had a sound base on price and underlying stats but was thrown out with the Sanchez hat trick at West Ham.  I’m not saying it’s a never just needs very careful consideration on players who can rack up big scores quickly.

Team Value

All the top 10 managers I follow play for team value at least to some point in the season.  The Bookies team, if you follow the alternate FFGeek team articles, at the moment has a 22k overall rank with a team value of only £100.8 and having never done an early transfer.  I’m not proposing to do some long data stats argument for and against it. I just wonder if it is as important as the consensus says.  Certainly as a counter argument,  I’ll be wishing for more team value come the 2nd wildcard

The FFGeek team

After Saturday on 21 points I knew I needed Ibra as captain to have a big match.  That he did thanks to Seb Larsson, the ref and a late assist for Rashford.  By the way, without that assist the United back 4 would have got all the BPS and Ibra no bonus as both sides agreed 2-0 was an ok result.  The United back 4 then used the time to  get their pass completion stats up together.  I’m now on 59 points with King and Fletchers 11 points to come off the bench and Sanchez to play

Here’s the team prior to the Palace game




fantasy premier league GW33 - The FFG team before Ars v Pal

Plans for the gameweek 

I hate to be unhelpful but I’m not really sure at the moment.  I’ll be keeping an eye on the Harry Kane saga.  Lukaku home to Burnley is the natural captain this week and  I’m hoping that will limit Kane rank damage.  Brunt at home to Liverpool is my desired exit but of the DGWers Van Aaanholt is an injury doubt, Southampton play Man City and Boro play Arsenal.  Gabriel of Arsenal is a possibility much as I distrust the Arsenal defence.  However if the Southampton v Arsenal game is postponed to GW36 I will wildcard then so getting him in now seems unecessary.  The high stakes option is another Man Utd defender although they too are a gametime risk.  So more time and thought needed.

Hope you found it interesting.  Comments encouraged both supportive and “challenging”!

Good luck tonight especially if you have Sanchez!

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11 thoughts on “fantasy premier league GW33 – a few words on various FPL things and the FFGeek team”

  1. Interesting thoughts…Kane is causing problems right now. Like you and many other managers I am in that same boat. Do I bring Kane in, if so who do I move? Ibrahimovic? Lukaku? I’ve been running with Alli and Eriksen, pleased with their returns. I was late to the Kane bandwagon before his injury, but don’t want to miss it this time around.

    The past 6 weeks have been roses for me, all green arrows, but at a cost of 40 points in transfers. Still over that same period I have moved from 1.6m to 716k and appears I have turned my season around…finally. I can’t “fear” not moving to bring in players due to form or fixture, with the hope they will make back the 4 points transfer hit and more. Over this period I have score 409 points, making back the 40 I gave up. Not how I want to play it, but when struggling as I was, this was the only way out, additionally it has kept it fun.

    This week I am on 81 points, captained Alli and didn’t have Aguero. Regardless of his explosiveness, I can’t justify his 12.7m price tag for his returns this season. I don’t plan on transferring him or Sanchez in rest of the season. It’s the upcoming DGWs that I am still contemplating. GW34 I think I am set with just 4 players (Valdez, Gibson, Valencia and Ibrahimovic) but beyond that I am not sure how hard I am going to push to get a squad full of DGW players. Some of the match ups just don’t look lucrative. Still have time to plan for those game weeks.

  2. I’m with you on Kane.

    Bringing him in means losing one of your current front 3. First game back, he might not play 90 mins and others in the team have got used to playing (and scoring) without him.

    Also, imo, taking point hits at this point in the season is to be avoided. You are only getting a few weeks worth of having the extra 0.1/0.2m as opposed to 30+ weeks worth of having it at your disposal, for a similar move early in the season.

  3. I brought in Ibra for Vardy last week. I know Ibra now has tough fixtures but I won’t be getting Kane in. I have a Llorente/Siggurdson issue to navigate first. i think Kane is still returning from injury and with the other Spurs attackers on such good form if they win 3-0, it could be a different attacker with each goal.

    Brunt to Davies seems to make more sense to me

  4. Kane is definitely causing havoc in all formats of fantasy (picking a forward line in Sky FF on limited transfers has become a nightmare) but having been stung by him earlier in the season in FPL, I’ll be looking to get him in asap. Only problem is I already have Davies, All & Eriksen.

    Despite valid arguments against it, I’ll likely spend -8 over the next 2 weeks in order to obtain a forward 3 of Ibra, Kane & Lukaku (only have Lukaku of those currently). I agree that these transfers will be made partly out of fear, but I’ve not been averse to hits lately & it has pushed me inside the top 100k, so I see no need to change this tact to get a strikeforce I’ll be happy to see the season out with barring further injuries.

    I’ve played the patient game for much of the year but at this stage of the season its the risks you take that will probably define it now.

    Good Luck all

  5. Still unsure of needing Kane in my forward line, as it would cost me hazard most likely and I am not sure I am willing to do that right now. There are other midfielders producing, but after United I see some good fixtures for Chelsea to clench the title with. Now that could play into the decision to move Hazard for Kane, but right now I am going to wait and see what GW33 brings.

    As for last week, here’s my retrospective, still looking for a worthwhile defender for GW33. Everton? Maybe?: http://the6thfloor.com/2017/04/10/premier-league-gw32-retrospect/

    • I cant decide on if Kane will start next week or not?! I have ibra and Aguero upfront and can easily make room for Kane. I am really not sold on this pathetic excuse for a double gamweek in 34. Boro have the only good fixtures and they’re dreadful going forward and now no one knows who will start between gestede and Negredo. I am thinking of removing Ibra from my team as they are up against chelsea and gambling with Kane. United’s DGW is against burnely away and city away, hardly ideal conditions for a striker! With all this said a good week of 75 for me.. However i am kicking myself (Extremely hard) for taking out Son for Walcott thinking Kane would start!

    • I cant decide on if Kane will start next week or not?! I have ibra and Aguero upfront and can easily make room for Kane. I am really not sold on this pathetic excuse for a double gamweek in 34. Boro have the only good fixtures and they’re dreadful going forward and now no one knows who will start between gestede and Negredo. I am thinking of removing Ibra from my team as they are up against chelsea and gambling with Kane. United’s DGW is against burnely away and city away, hardly ideal conditions for a striker! With all this said a good week of 75 for me.. However i am kicking myself (Extremely hard) for taking out Son for Walcott thinking Kane would start!

  6. I have played my wildcard for this GW.

    Decided to go with the following:

    Forster-Pickford
    Pieters-Simpson-Davies-Mee-Robertson
    Walcott-Alli-Pedro-King-WardProwse
    Vardy-Aguero-Kane

    I am still thinking what to do with my extra 0.7m in bank.

    Thinking on how do i further improve my team. Mostly I am bringing in players that have upcoming DGWs.

    Any advice is greatly appreciated.

    Cheers!

    • I’ve got a hard time investing in Arsenal right now, DGWs or not. I followed James lead and brought in Walcott based on previous two matches and he and the rest of the team, while controlling possession didn’t impress going forward. Davies could be questionable when Rose returns, defense appears thin, then again I’m not playing conventional starters either. Given you have big money invested up front, means challenging decisions elsewhere.

      • Hi Stephen T,

        That’s my worry with Arsenal as well…hence I am reluctant to spend big on Sanchez and Ozil.

        Thanks for the heads up for Davies. Totally forgot about Rose’s return. I will monitor the situation for now…may invest in a Spurs Mid (Son/Erikson) while dropping Davies.

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