fantasy premier league price falls – should the bargains be left in the basement?


I’ve been covering the price rises and falls for fantasy premier league managers with alot of emphasis on the rises and falls from a negative point of view.  This post flips it on its head and looks to see if we should be seeing whether the price falls are an opportunity to pick up players on the cheap.  Or have they been sold for a reason and a good one at that.  We look at the biggest price falls of Oscar, Mata, Sturridge, Aguero, Ramires and Moses.  Hmmm anyone detect a Chelsea based theme here…..

At the risk of stating the obvious,  with Chelsea having a double game week people loaded up on their assets and those that didnt work out have been sold leading to some spectacular price falls.

Lets look at Chelsea in general first.  The Chelsea team of choice would be a 4-2-3-1 formation and would pr0bably line up as follows:

Cech

Ivanovic – Terry – Luiz – Cole

Mikel – Lampard

Mata – Hazard – Ramires/Moses/Marin/Oscar

Torres

Chelsea now embark on a series of fixtures that are near or perhaps even the worst of all the clubs in fantasy premier league.  Hardly the back drop for risk taking with unfancied players.

Oscar

61 minutes in 3 games with 2 sub appearances only, no starts, 2 fantasy premier league points.  0.7% ownership and currently £7.9m.  His underlying stats in those 61 minutes are actually very good in terms of shots, chances created and involvement but lets get real, it was 61 minutes as a sub against Wigan and Reading.  You cant argue about his talent. Last year he scored 3 goals and got 7 assists in 18 games.  He has looked lively in his 2 sub appearances and maybe he will take the 3rd attacking midfield spot but not just yet.  Dont buy him

Mata

Now this is an interesting one.  Last year he was impressive with 6 goals and 13 assists in 34 games.  Unfortunately, he was overworked in the summer and went to the Euros (albeit bench only) and the Olympics.  He is now at the bargain price of £9.0m after a fall of £0.5m.  So far this season he’s done nothing.  No goals and no assists in 3 games and 8 Chelsea goals.

So has he just been unlucky or has something fundamentally changed.  Unfortunately the stats are abysmal.  Compared to last year he is way down on shots and chances created.   A comparison with Hazard in those circumstances is downright embarrassing including who plays in the most advanced position.  His involvement overall is up its just deeper and with less penetration than last season.  Don’t buy under any circumstances especially given the fixtures and sell as soon as you’ve got the chance.   I’m either going to hold out for 1 more week to generate an additional transfer or bite the bullet with Cazorla.

Sturridge

Here is a classic tale of a player under 2 managers. I imagine if the club wasn’t so light on strikers that he would have been out so fast you wouldn’t have seen him for dust.  Last year he scored 11 goals with 4 assists with virtually all of them coming in AVB’s 4-3-3.  He played on the right and was very successful.  Unfortunately RDM plays 4-2-3-1 and Torres will be the first choice full stop.  Sturridges passing, pathological dislike of defensive work and the fact that he is the antithesis of someone like Eden Hazard means you can forget him playing in one of the advanced midfield positions.    Don’t buy and if you haven’t sold already, why not?

Ramires

There’s no point in me rolling out stats here, with Ramires they mean nothing.  Its all about position.  He has played in that advanced midfield position this year.  Compared to Hazard and Mata, Ramires at £6.6m is a relative bargain and if you could feel that he could hold that position he would be worth investing.  He may not be that Iniesta type player Chelsea seem to want but he can score.  Personally, I can see him playing more in the 2 screening positions once the 3rd attacking midfield position is made either Marin Oscar or Moses’.  Much as I’m a Lampard fan and he seems to have adjusted to the attacking side of the screening role with his distribution he just doesn’t close down players quick enough to play in that position without someone who can balance out the defensive aspects.  Its made worse by the fact that Mikel is hardly speedy gonzales (for those old enough!) himself.  Ramires will add another dimension to that position and that’s where I see Im going.  Obviously RDM doesn’t come to the site and tell me this stuff so nothings guaranteed but I wouldn’t take the plunge with Ramires just yet

Moses

Now Moses does have the potential to take the 3rd attacking midfield spot.  Also at £6.6m he is an absolute bargain.  In my mind he has the talent to do it and its helped by the fact that he absolutely slaughtered Chelsea for Wigan earlier this season.  If his crossing was better he would be an absolute menace.  However, in fantasy premier league terms its just too early to invest.  Marin apparently is back this weekend and with Oscar and Ramires still in the picture, game time is just too unpredictable.  Stay away but monitor closely

Aguero

Now this is interesting, Aguero at £11.0m.  The once huge divide of £2.5m between Aguero and Tevez is now £1.2m.  If you don’t own Tevez,  firstly, I feel very sorry for you and secondly, you should think very carefully as to whether you invest in Tevez or Aguero, assuming you do want to invest in one or the other.   I would highly recommend this given that the only other realistic attacking option for City at the moment is YYT.

Lets do some stat comparisons between Tevez of this year and Aguero of last to see how they line up.

In short, Tevez looks the better of the two.  Shooting stats are virtually identical in terms of frequency and % inside the box.  Tevez shoots more accurately though.  Tevez though has a big advantage in terms of game involvement and chances created for others.  You may think it unfair to compare 3 games to the whole of  last season but the picture is broadly similar in a comparison between the whole of last year and this year.

However, I’m telling you the same thing I was in pre-season.  The big factor then in Aguero’s favour was that he was supposedly less rotatable and that it would be Tevez who was sacrificed for Ballotelli or Dzeko.  Therefore he was worth the additional cost.  This was especially so when they were the 1st leg of a captain rotation with Rooney or RVP and therefore the additional money was irrelevant.  In the end the difference in cash was too tempting for a lot of fantasy premier league managers and Tevez was chosen.  Is this still the case?  I’m just not so sure its so cut and dry and Tevez in his current form is just as likely to hold his place as Aguero.  Therefore, if you have neither and have to choose, I say go for Tevez to save the cash.  For me its not relevant.  I have Tevez and I have no intention at this moment of sacrificing half the price rise to get Aguero in.

Well I hope you found that interesting.   Any comments or opposing views are welcome!