fantasy premier league team tips GW13 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW13 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league team tips GW13 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers





If the article is too long there’s a template team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164).  See Paul’s last article here

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 12 review

A reasonable week for the 10 FPL managers. 6 of the 10 had a green arrow

The average score of the managers in GW12 was 59 compared to the game average of 48. That’s 11 points and 23% above the game average score. High score of the 10 was 68. The low score was 59 -8. A spread of 17 including hits for a relatively average scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 100k. An improvement of rank of 6k from last week. The best overall rank is now in the top 100 and the lowest 674k. The low score distorts the average. The median overall rank is better at 33k an improvement of 6k from last week

The average total points are 772

The average team value is £103.0m

My score as you may have seen in my early FFGeek team thoughts article was score was good at 65. That was higher than 8 of the managers and my total points of 776 and OR of 28k is better than 6 of the 10 managers.

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence

Alonso is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wan Bissaka is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Doherty is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hamer, Patricio and Robertson are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fabianski and Balbuena are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 13 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea GK/Defs are represented 10 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Liverpool and C Palace GK/Defs are represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

West Ham are represented 6 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Man City are represented 5 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Brighton and Huddersfield GK/Defs are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Salah is in 10 of the FPL managers teams

Hazard and Richarlison are in 7 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hojbjerg is in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fraser and Maddison are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Forwards

Aguero is in 10 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Arnautovic is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wilson is in 4 of the 10 FPL teams

Ings is in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 12 captain choice

10 of the 10 FPL managers went with Salah

The FFGeek poll was 58% Salah and 22% Mane

The Site 1 poll in my GW12 captain choice article was 43% Salah and 19% Mane

The top 10k captain choice (from the excellent free site FPL discovery) was 60% Salah and 27% Mane. Again quite close the FFGeek Poll.

Formations

Sorry didn’t get to this early enough

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

No manager used their wildcard this week the total now is 8 managers who have used it

None have used their triple captain, free hit or bench boost chip

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once and don’t include the wildcard transfers.

Transfers in

7 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Arnautovic was transferred in by 3 managers

No one else was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

Mitrovic was transferred out by 4 managers.  Twice for Arnautovic.

Maddison was transferred out 3 times for 3 different players

No one else was transferred out more than once

Hits

1 manager took an 8 point deduction for extra transfers and 2 for a 4 point deduction.

The leading manager’s team

Here’s the top scoring manager who’s currently in the top 100

fantasy premier league team tips GW13

An ok score of 62.  He carried over a free transfer this week.

 The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

GKs top 10k 10 managers
Ederson 27 10
Fabianski 22 30
Ryan 15 10
Patrício 10 40
Foster 7 10
Alisson 6 n/a
Begovic 3 20
DEFs
Alonso 83 90
Wan-Bissaka 74 80
Robertson 70 40
Mendy 56 50
Doherty 45 50
Bennett 31 30
Trippier 23 20
Alexander-Arnold 16 20
Laporte 9 n/a
Balbuena n/a 30
MIDs
Hazard 86 70
Richarlison 68 70
Salah 61 100
Mané 42 20
Fraser 41 30
Sterling 14 n/a
Højbjerg 15 40
Pereyra 12 10
Maddison n/a 30
Barkley n/a 20
FWDs
Agüero 85 100
Arnautovic 70 90
Wilson 62 40
Jiménez 11 n/a
Lacazette 10 n/a
Murray 8 10
Ings 8 30
Success n/a 20

The top 10k average score was 57 compared to the top 10 FPL managers of 59

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two teams and the only player that are different to this extent are

Salah has become a point of difference with 65% of the top 10k owning him vs 100% of the 10 top managers.

Hojbjerg owned by the top 10 FPL managers more but not relevant as a bench warmer for FPL teams.

I’ll say it again that I’m quite shocked at the lack of variation in the 2 sets of teams. Even as recently as last season they would have been very different. Salah is the only battle ground whereas last season there would have been 4 or 5.

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

The combined FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. I’ve returned to making it more of a menu than a team and I’m not trying to make it realistic. The TV is £104.6m.



fantasy premier league team tips GW13

So who’s essential?

Anyone or any defensive team that is owned by 7/10 of these managers or by 7/10 of the top 10k I would take a lot of convincing not to own irrespective of my thoughts about them. In terms of serious managers likely to finish with high overall ranks I won’t be getting left behind by players that are owned by a large proportion of these managers or by a large proportion of the top 10k.

That would mean:

Alonso 9/10 top 10 managers and 83% top 10k) and a Wolves defender (represented 13 times in the 10 managers teams (Doherty for me). A Liverpool defender has hit the 80% of teams of the 10 top FPL managers. Also top 10k teams Robertson 70% and TAA 16%

Hazard (owned by 7/10 managers and 86% of the top 10k) and Aguero (owned by 10/10 managers and 85% of the top 10k).

Salah also now has that status owned by 10/10 of the managers even if only 61% of the top 10k. Richarlison has now hit the 7 of the 10 top 10 FPL managers threshold. He is owned by 68% of the top 10k

Arnautovic (9/10 FPL managers and 70% of the top 10k) also comes into that categroy

Wan Bissaka is owned by 8/10 top 10 managers and 74% of top 10k. However given they Man Utd next and he’s often benched you would argue that they weren’t essential.

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

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