fantasy premier league team tips GW15 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers


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Here’s our fantasy premier league team tips GW15 article where we analyse the teams of 10 top FPL managers. These 10 managers have not finished outside the overall rank of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons. Considering how variable the last 3 years have been this is remarkable consistency and shows an ability to adapt strategy in different seasons. It also gives you a view other than my own on strategy and player selection.

fantasy premier league team tips GW15 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers

If the article is too long there’s a template team for the top 10 FPL managers analysed towards the end of the article.

Firstly, there are 9 new managers in the 10 this season and I’m delighted to say that one of them is our own FFGeek contributor Keith Spencer. Keith’s last 3 years history are 17/18 (3,940), 16/17 ( 325) and 15/16 (9,280).

We’ve also added Paul Williams to the FFGeek team who is also part of the 10 top managers. His history is 17/18 (412), 16/17 ( 1,382) and 15/16 (7,164).

The criteria I’ve always been looking for is managers who’ve finished in the top 10k for the last 3 years when FPL has become considerably harder due to the amount of people playing and the information available.

It took me hours and hours to track down 10 managers who’ve been so consistent and my opinion after doing so is that there are probably only 20 or so in the world that qualify.

The 10 managers stats

These managers are unbelievable and every bit as impressive as last season

1. The overall average finishing overall rank of the top 10 managers in the last 3 seasons is 3,667

2. The top 10 FPL managers have not been out of the top 10k in the last 3 seasons (ie 30 times playing)

3. 7 of the 10 have finished in the top 1,000 in the last 3 seasons

Gameweek 14 review





A mixed week for the 10 FPL managers. Only 4 of the 10 had a green arrow

The average score of the managers in GW14 was 52 taking into account point deductions for extra transfers. That’s compared to the game average of 49. That’s 3 points and 6% above the game average score. High score of the 10 was 62. The low score was 38. A spread of 24 for a relatively average scoring gameweek.

The average overall rank of the top 10 FPL managers is 139k. A worsening of rank of 32k from last week. The best overall rank is now in the top 500 and the lowest 1,220k. The low score distorts the average significantly. The median overall rank is better at 58k a worsening of 15k from last week

The average total points are 866

The average team value is £102.9m

I’ll go through my score in an early FFGeek team article.

The combined total of individual players

I’ve included where there is a minimum of a player in 3 out of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence

Alonso is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wan Bissaka is in 8 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Doherty is in 7 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Balbuena is in 5 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hamer, Patricio, Digne, and Robertson are in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Fabianski and Bennett are in 3 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Goalkeeper/Defence by team

Wolves GK/Defs are represented 14 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Chelsea GK/Defs are represented 10 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

C Palace and West Ham GK/Defs are represented 8 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Liverpool are represented 7 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Brighton and Huddersfield GK/Defs are represented 4 times in the 10 FPL managers teams

Midfielders

Salah and Richarlison are in 10 of the FPL managers teams

Hazard is in 6 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Hojbjerg is in 4 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Sane, Fraser and Martial are in 2 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Forwards

Aguero is in 10 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Arnautovic is in 9 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Wilson is in 3 of the 10 FPL teams

Ings is in 2 of the 10 FPL managers teams

Gameweek 14 captain choice

9 of the 10 FPL managers went with Aguero

with Hazard as vice, 1 to Sane as vice and 3 to Salah as vice

1 of the 10 went with Salah

The FFGeek poll was 44% Aguero and 20% Hazard

The Site 1 poll in my GW14 captain choice article was 34% Aguero, 18% Hazard

The top 10k captain choice (from the excellent free site FPL discovery) was 50% Aguero and 24% Sterling and 12% Hazard. This time not close to the FFGeek poll at all.

Formations

Didn’t get to do this this week

Wildcards, chips, transfers and hits

No manager used their wildcard this week the total now is 8 managers who have used it

None have used their triple captain, free hit or bench boost chip

Transfers in and out

I only summarise the transfers when a player is transferred in more than once.

5 of the 10 managers made a transfer.

Transfers in

Sane was transferred in by 2 managers

No one else was transferred in more than once

Transfers out

No one was transferred out more than once

Hits

No managers took any point deductions for a transfer

The leading manager’s team

Here’s the top scoring manager who’s currently in the top 500

A relatively low score of 45 this week. His transfer this week was Mane out and Sane in.

fantasy premier league team tips GW15

The top 10k overall rank vs the 10 FPL managers

The schedule shows the players in the top 10k overall rank teams percentage wise vs the 10 top FPL managers I follow.

GKs top 10k 10 FPL managers
Ederson 29 10
Patrício 22 40
Fabianski 14 30
Ryan 11 10
Alisson 7 10
Hennessey 5 n/a
Hart 3 10
DEFs
Alonso 83 90
Robertson 73 40
Wan-Bissaka 62 80
Doherty 47 70
Alexander-Arnold 35 20
Bennett 31 30
Laporte 28 20
Digne 15 40
Balbuena n/a 50
MIDs
Richarlison 72 100
Hazard 65 60
Salah 60 100
Sterling 43 n/a
Hojbjerg n/a 40
Mané 31 10
Fraser 30 20
Martial 26 20
Felipe Anderson 14 10
FWDs
Agüero 81 100
Arnautovic 65 90
Wilson 47 30
Jiménez 36 20
Murray 9 10
Mitrovic 6 n/a
Lacazette 3 n/a

The top 10k average score was 56 compared to the top 10 FPL managers of 52

I use 30% as a rule of thumb as a significant variation between the two teams and the only player that are different to this extent are 3:

Sterling owned by 43% of the top 10k but not any of the 10 top FPL managers

Salah owned by 60% of the top 10k but 100% of the 10 top FPL managers

Robertson owned by 73% of the top 10 but 4/10 top managers.  This is smoothed out though by 7 of the 10 managers owning a Liverpool defender.

Things are widening though with Richarlison owned by 72% of the top 10k vs 10/10 of the 10 top FPL managers.  Arnautovic is similar with a 25% difference the same way.

All the information is provided by the truly fantastic free site FPL discovery.

The combined FPL managers teams

Here’s a team which tries to make a combination from the most represented players. It is meant to be a menu of players rather than a realistic team. The TV is £104.0m.




fantasy premier league team tips GW15

So who’s essential?

I feel that things are going to change significantly over the next 2 gameweeks so I’m going to put this to one side to not distract people.

That’s it. Hope you found it useful

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5 thoughts on “fantasy premier league team tips GW15 – analysing the teams of 10 top FPL managers”

  1. Besides the obvious Aguero transfers happening as we speak, my prediciton is the Wolves D of Patricio, Doherty ans Bennett will be a noticable change that trends here. Their impressive clean sheet era has come to an unimpressive end. Unless Doherty scores there is no longer value. So see ya later wolves.

  2. It’s an interesting dilemma now. Selecting high ownership players who are also likely to be captain favourites, as a defensive shield, has been a trusted tactic to avoid huge ranking drops. The way forward now seems to be to come off two massively owned template players In Aguero and Hazard to accommodate Kane. A huge risk given ownership but essential and a great opportunity for gains ? How do the top managers view this ??

  3. The tide is going to turn I feel. The great fixtures upcoming of both Spurs and Arsenal mean that I am making the plays of swapping Salah, Mitro and Aguero for Sane, Kane & Aubameyang. (Salah will stay for the Burnley game Wednesday). Liverpool have tricky fixtures coming up after that, so I feel Salah will not be a captain option for most who keep him for all but 1 of their next 6 fixtures after the Burnley game (the home fixture with Newcastle). I am keeping Hazard as he might now be a decent differential with good upcoming fixtures after the City game. Anybody else planning something similar?

  4. Yup thinking the same as you Ian. I have two transfers this week, Salah is gone and Sterling is in, his form is too good to ignore now – this seasons Salah?
    I am agonising over replacing Aguero with Kane or Auba. Auba’s form is better, but Kane is probably the safer pick.

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