fantasy premier league – some thoughts on GW28 and GW29

I’ve put a few thoughts down on GW28 and GW29 which have become a real headache for fantasy premier league managers.  It’s a pretty subjective topic and hopefully even if you disagree then  it will give some thought to how you approach it.  Please feel free to comment with any ideas

Background to fantasy premier league GW28/29

GW28 fixtures

Everton v West Ham
Fulham v Chelsea
Hull City v Newcastle
Stoke City v Arsenal
Southampton v Liverpool
Aston Villa v Norwich
Swansea v Crystal Palace
Tottenham v Cardiff City

Postponed

Man Utd v Man City (now GW31)

Sunderland v WBA

GW29 fixtures

West Brom v Man Utd
Cardiff City v Fulham
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Norwich v Stoke City
West Ham v Hull City
Chelsea v Tottenham

Postponed

Liverpool v Sunderland (unlikely to be midweek due to avoiding games when UCL on)

Man City v Villa (definitely wont be midweek as UCL game)

Arsenal v Swansea (definitely wont be midweek as UCL game)

Newcastle v Everton (unlikely to be midweek due to avoiding games when UCL on)

None have new dates

Still in doubt

West Ham v Hull (depends on result of FA Cup replay)

Already postponed

Man City v Sunderland

Everton v Crystal Palace

Neither have new dates although Everton could announce this week)

Teams with postponed games summary

Man City

No game in GW28 or GW29 – but 3 postponed games Sunderland H Man Utd A (DGW31) and Villa H.  Stoke in GW27 so don’t transfer out before then.  No games for 2 weeks but some juicy DGWs to come.  Problem is rotation as still in 4 competitions.  No one is safe from rotation over this period.  Then there is the Aguero factor.  Rotation or not, injury prone or not he is a must have for me

Sunderland

No game in GW28 or GW29 but 3 postponed games WBA  H Liverpool A Man City A.  No fixtures allocated.  Adam Johnson and Bardsley are the 2 best players for me

Everton

Unlikely game GW29.  2 postponed games Palace H and Newcastle A.  No fixtures allocated.  Mirallas Coleman Baines and Lukaku when fit best picks

Arsenal

No game in GW29. 1 postponed game Swansea H.  No fixture allocated.  Difficult games after GW29 but Sunderland H GW27 so avoid selling before then.  Koscielny Giroud Cazorla the best picks

Villa

No game in GW29. 1 postponed game Man City A.  No fixture allocated.  Difficult games after GW29. Norwich home in GW28 so sell after that.  Benteke best pick.

Liverpool

No game in GW29.  1 postponed game home to Sunderland. No fixture allocated.   Mixed fixtures after GW29. Suarez Sturridge Sterling and Gerrard best picks

Swansea 

No game in GW29.  1 postponed game away to Swansea. No fixture allocated. Good fixtures after GW29 so maybe worth holding.  Chico Bony Dyer and Pablo best picks

Man Utd

No game in GW28.  1 postponed game Man City H for DGW31.  RVP and Mata best picks

WBA

No game in GW28.  1 postponed game Sunderland A.  No fixture allocated. Mixed fixtures after GW28.  Brunt best pick

Crystal Palace

Play both GW28 and GW29. 1 previously postponed game Everton A.  No fixture allocated.  Mixed fixtures.  Best picks.  Ward Ince Puncheon

Best Picks for GW29 teams

See my “ones to watch” articles for more detail.  I’ve tried to avoid anyone with gametime risk.

West Brom (McAuley Brunt) v Man Utd (RVP Mata)
Cardiff City (Zaha Marshall Turner) v Fulham (Sidwell)
Crystal Palace (Ward Ince Puncheon) v Southampton  (Boruc Fonte Lallana Davis Lambert)
Norwich (Snodgrass) v Stoke City (Adam)
 West Ham (Demel Nolan Carroll) v Hull City (Davies Livermore Long)
Chelsea (Ivanovic Hazard )  v Tottenham (Adebayor)

Captain Picks GW28 and GW29

Thinking ahead for your captain picks for GW28 and GW29 may influence your strategy

GW28

Hazard – away to Fulham

Suarez and Sturridge – away to Southampton

Adebayor – home to Cardiff

GW29

This is very tricky.

RVP – away to WBA

Hazard – home to Spurs

A few other thoughts

Consider sell and buy price

I know its stating the obvious but consider your buy and sell price before transferring someone out.  Suarez Sturridge YYT and Coleman are the main players to think carefully about before transferring them out.

When will the games be rescheduled?

Interestingly the FA Cup game between Hull and Brighton was rescheduled for Monday rather than the Wednesday to avoid clashes with the UCL games which apparently is a UEFA rule.  Now the premier league seem to dispute that they are bound by that but if they are then there are very few rounds to fit in the postponed games and that means that there could be a massive DGW31.  After that it appears that GW34 is the next likely.

Avoid players with gametime risk

Again sorry for stating the obvious but now is not the time to buy players with gametime risk.  Unfortunately with City and Chelsea thats inevitable but don’t try and save £0.3m to buy someone who isn’t a certainty.  Get rid of any players you’re carrying with injury

When to use your wildcard?

If you’ve still got 1 then to me it’s best to save it especially if there could be a number of fixtures within 1 gameweek like GW31.  I cant see a wildcard used for GW29.  Using it and limiting yourself to 3 from Man City Liverpool Arsenal and Everton doesn’t seem that sensible especially if you then have to build up your transfers in those players for the DGWs ahead.

What about taking hits?

To put a full team out for GW29 and even GW28 you’ll probably need to take hits.  Will they be worth it.  In very simple terms everyone you take out and pay with 4 points will probably have a double gameweek coming up at some stage, possibly as early as GW31,  On that simplistic basis it doesn’t seem worth it.  If you can’t field a team in GW28 and GW29 then buying someone from say Palace who have a DGW coming up (although away to Everton) may make more sensea although again you will be replacing someone who will have a DGW somewehere.   Obviously if it’s an injured player, unless he’s going to recover then it makes more sense.     If you have your wild card intact though you could gamble that replacing someone at least that doesn’t play in either gameweek 28 and 29 then you can rectify transfers out of DGW players with your wildcard. especially if you think that they will fall in GW31

Play it safe in GW27

I don’t know how long it will take for fixtures to be confirmed.  The time it’s taken to not confirm the Sunderland v WBA game is pretty disturbing to say the least.  However hopefully things will become far clearer in terms of fixtures by the 1st March which is gameweek 28.  For GW27 then unless youre pretty comfortable for GW28 and GW29 already I would transfer in one of the teams that play in both GW28 and GW29.  Those are  Palace, Cardiff, Fulham, Southampton, Norwich, Stoke, West Ham, Chelsea and Tottenham.  To avoid injuries taking a futher toll you may want to save 2 transfers for GW28 or GW29

What to do about Man City

Man City are the most interesting prospect of all the teams.  In GW27 they are home to Stoke.  They then don’t play in GW28 and GW29 but have 3 postponed games Sunderland H Man Utd A (DGW31) and Villa H.  The trouble is they are in 4 competitions and rotation will be a serious issue.  This maybe less of an issue if Barca can put them out.  Also the home game for Wigan should be a rotation target.  How do the main fantasy premier league targets measure up and who is worth holding

Kompany – to me the main option  for the defence.  With some easy home games they should have some good points there.  Is it better to hold attacking assets though

Silva – a very important player as weve seen with him being bought back quickly after injury.  Has played a number of games and now is rotatable with Nasri back.  A risky hold

YYT – most people who own him will probably take too much of a bath on the price to sell.  With Fernandinho back and Garcia playing well against Chelsea he could be rotated after playing a number of games this season

Negredo Djeko and Jovetic –  all risky holds due to rotation

Aguero – a buy for DGW31?  hopefully he should be fit! By that time they could be out of the Champions league which would definitely reduce the risk of rotation

Nasri  – is interesting.  Should be fit after injury layoff.  Too rotatable though with Navas especially as Navas has made a real impact since he’s been off.

Thats it.  I hope it gave you something to think about.  There’s no magic formula so if you disagree or have any other ideas please leave it in the comments section.  As ever I’ll be happy to be corrected

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