xGI is expected goal involvement. It looks at your total expected goals and assists. Kev in this article compares this number to the players actual goals and assists. You can then see who has over and underperformed and make an assessment on how that will affect their returns in the coming season. Kev’s last 5 seasons overall ranks were 58k, 8k, 52k, 48k and 6k
FPL Player statistics – Kev in Canada looks at players xGI vs actual goal involvement
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XGI vs actual goals and assists
xGI is expected goal involvement. It looks at your total expected goals and assists. Kev in this article compares this number to the players actual goals and assists. You can then see who has over and underperformed and make an assessment on how that will affect their returns in the coming season.
When the game launched a few folks made a comment about how Odegaard really outperformed his xG even though he had a great year last year. I thought this was interesting as it has seemed to have made people shy away from him a bit. Perhaps the view is that he outperformed quite a bit and hence managers have moved away from him.
So then I thought I would look at which other players have over performed their underlying stats as well as which players have under performed them.
Below you will see that I have looked at the expected goal involvement (xGI) of players. This is the sum of their expected goals (xG) and their expected assists (xA). I realize goals are worth more but assists still add up and also lead to bonus points too.
I then added each player’s actual Goals and Assists from last season to compare that to the xGI. This shows us who dramatically over performed and who under performed. The main list is sorted by xGI. However I added additional tables to show the stand out players.
I only looked at midfielders and forwards seeing as attacking defenders are so few and far between.
I also added a column on the noteworthy players column that divides their over or under performance by their actual goals and assists. This allows you to see how significant the change is. For eg if Foden has an additional 7.5 goals and assists then he should have got and that is a whopping 72% than he should have got, then that is a massive over performance and you might expect some reversion to his expected numbers. While Odegard outperformed by 5.23 but that is only 29% more than expected. It should be far less of a dip if he were to come back down to his expected numbers.
This might suggest that in fact Foden is the massive risk of not living up to last years returns. Not Odegaard.
Have a look and see if any of these numbers are useful.
I am not making my team based off of this per se. However it may help me realize who is and isn’t outperforming.
Forwards
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