Here’s Stefan with his article on FPL prices rises and falls and how important they are this year.
FPL Price Rises and Falls – How Important are They this Year?
Some of you will have got off to a fantastic start in FPL this year, and some of you will have probably already used your wildcard and maybe even used your triple captain or bench boost chip too. However, it’s not the bonus chips that are causing everyone issues, it’s the frequent rises and falls of hundreds of players in the early part of this season.
For example, Teemu Pukki has already shot up to £7.0m. You wouldn’t have seen that last season. The Norwich striker has already shortened to around 20/1 for the Golden Boot on the major sports betting sites checked for the UK.
Let’s look at who’s been rising and falling over the first few weeks of the season, and let’s try and pick out some players worth having before they become unaffordable or worth getting rid of before they lose you team value.
FPL – Who’s dropping in value?
Alisson is the one that sticks out like a sore thumb at the moment. Hopefully, you all took him out of your squads when he got injured. He’s dropped £0.2m at the time of writing and could well drop further before he returns. He’s certainly one to keep an eye on. Once he’s back fit, he’ll be snapped back up by many.
Two other players who have dropped by £0.2m but may be worth keeping tabs on are Chris Wood at Burnley and Moise Kean at Everton. Ok, so neither have had the best of starts from an FPL perspective, but they are both looking dangerous in front of goal. You feel it’s only a matter of time before they both score and hit a good run of form.
Don’t discount Gylfi Sigurdsson yet either. He’s another player who’s dropped by £0.2m since the start of the season. However, you’ve got to take into consideration that he’s on penalties. As soon as he scores one, he could well score a few more. He’s still available at a very tempting price of £7.8m.
FPL – Price rises to watch out for
If you’ve not already got Teemu Pukki in your FPL side, then you’ve missed the boat. He still looks great value to be honest, but if you’re paying £7.0m+, then you’ll have less to spend in other areas compared to those who got him early. He may have had a tough gameweek 4 versus West Ham but there’s still plenty of points to come.
If you can’t afford the Norwich frontman then consider Burnley’s Ashley Barnes. He’s risen slightly already, but there’s a good reason for that. He’s on fire. Not only that, but his side have some favourable fixtures over the next couple of months where he could rack up some points.
Tammy Abraham is another forward who is on the rise. He looks like he’s Frank Lampard’s number one choice up top, so don’t leave it too late to get him added to your side if you want some goals at a cheap price. After Wolves and Liverpool are out of the way, Chelsea’s fixtures look very good until the middle of November.
Some other players that have risen by £0.2m or more since the start of the season include Sterling, Mount, Lundstrum, and Ceballos. Sheffield United’s John Lundstram is definitely one to consider at his current price. Included him in your side frees up funds for other areas.
Get rising players and flog fallers?
The thing is, if everyone bought players that were rising then we’d all end up with very similar teams. Granted, a lot of FPL managers will do this and jump on the rising bandwagon every week, but it’s not the best way to play FPL in all honesty. You should definitely keep an eye on which players are going to fall in price and think about removing one of those each week. Why? Well, fallers are who will hurt you the most in the long run. If your team value doesn’t rise in price at all, you’re going to get left behind if you look at the stats historically.
If you want to do well at FPL this year, these are my views on the steps you should consider:
1. Do not waste your chips too early. Wait for double gameweeks. There will be a few toward the end of the season.
2. Using your wildcard early isn’t the end of the world and could actually benefit you in the long run with the price rises and falls.
3. Do not be a sheep and copy everyone else. Go with your own views.
4. Ensure all of your squad play in reality. There’s no point having players in your squad who are always questionable starters.
If you definitely want someone in your team for the long haul, get him in early. If players in your squad are dropping in value, it’s not the end of the world, but consider selling one or two if they drop by more than £0.1m. However, at the end of the day, it’s your choice. If you know your football, rely on your own knowledge of the game and trust in your own decisions. Bucking the trend and using your judgement is the best way to success in this game. However, leave Teemu Pukki out at your own risk. Good luck.