Here’s FFGeek contributor Paul Williams with his bi-weekly ‘Diary of an FPL Manager’ series. This week, Paul turns his attention to the different approaches to transfers. Paul is one of the Top 10 FPL Managers I follow and finished with an overall rank of 412 last season, 1,382 in 16/17 and 7,164 in 15/16.
Paul Williams ‘Diary of an FPL Manager’ – Approach to Transfers
You can read more from Paul in his ‘Diary of an FPL Manager’ series on his Facebook blog using this link.
Introduction
As the crazy festive period of games has been and gone, and we are now well into the second half of the season, I thought I would switch my attention to the topic of transfers. In particular, whether it really is that important not to miss out on that vital 0.1m rise! This is especially pertinent at the moment due to several managers being caught out last week through making early transfers prior to the injuries picked up by Harry Kane and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Following the Crowd
The view held by a lot of experienced FPL managers is that the first half of the season is the time to concentrate on building a healthy team value by latching on early to players who are rising in price. After all, they’re likely to be in top form, which is the reason why they’re deemed so desirable by so many people in the first place.
This is a tactic that makes sense and one that I follow to a certain extent. However, I am always mindful that our teams are judged by their total points and not their monetary value. Basically, what I’m saying is that if I don’t see the potential in the player, then I’m not going to buy them. A good example would be Theo Walcott in GW4. He was the most popular transferred in player (over 700,000 managers decided to bring him in) and his price rose by the maximum 0.3m in one GW. Of course, it could have paid off… and of course, we now know that it didn’t. Yet, I am sure that there are some managers out there who are still glad they banked that profit, all be it at the cost of two transfers – one to bring him in and one to get rid.
Change in Tactic
At this point in the season, having built up a solid team value, most managers will now become more conservative in their moves – waiting until closer to the deadline, after the managers’ press conferences, before finalising their transfers. Again, if you have managed to increase the overall value of you team, it seems a sensible approach.
Early Transfers – When it can be a good idea…
Nevertheless, there are some situations when an early transfer can be worthwhile at any stage of the season. Indeed, I found myself in that situation soon after GW21 finished. At the time, I had the exact funds to replace Luke Shaw with Trent Alexander-Arnold – a move I was very keen on making. However, TAA was due to rise in price (which he subsequently did). So, I made the move before I was priced out. Although I was happy with the transfer and the fact that I had ‘beat’ Alexander-Arnold’s rise in price, I still would have been a lot less inclined to make the move if I didn’t also have an additional free transfer.
Last week was another example – when I heard about Harry Kane’s absence, I decided fairly quickly that my chosen replacement would be Marcus Rashford. As I had two free transfers, I again made the move a little earlier than I usually would to ensure that I benefited from Rashford’s rapidly rising price tag.
Finally, a real important factor when weighing up the positives and negatives of a transfer is to think about the matches taking place between the PL games. In the above instance, Man United and Rashford did not have a mid-week fixture to play.
Early transfers – When it can be a bad idea…
Those managers that choose to make early transfers will get away with it nine times out of ten; by transferring early, it will give them the advantage of having a really high team value (if they bring in the right players). However, when it does backfire, it really does sting – and can take extra transfers (and points) to repair the damage.
There are definitely times when it really isn’t wise to make early transfers and I would argue right now is one of them.
It’s unbelievable that Eden Hazard, Richarlison and Felipe Anderson have been removed by almost 300,000 teams already. With Carabao Cup and FA Cup fixtures taking place over the next few days prior to GW24, a lot of people are playing with fire again.
I count myself amongst those Richarlison owners who are seriously starting to question his worth. Yet, there is no way I’d burn a transfer with the majority of my squad at the risk of getting injured due to having to navigate a cup tie.
Conclusion
The decision as to whether to make early transfers partly comes down to your own personal mentality regarding points hits. Personally, I rarely make points hits (two so far this season) and will hold an extra transfer back a lot of the time ‘just in case’ or to implement formation changes.
Arguably, making more transfers than needed and snapping up the latest fad (Diogo Jota being the latest) is a lot more fun than being patient and sticking with players who haven’t just bagged a hat-trick. What I would say though is that it’s a balancing act and another important factor to take into consideration before making a transfer is how much the departing player can make you regret it. Hazard, Richarlison and Felipe Anderson have Bournemouth, Huddersfield and Wolves up next – just putting it out there!
You can read more from Paul in his ‘Diary of an FPL Manager’ series on his Facebook blog using this link.
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