fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW12

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW12. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

 fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW12

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.

TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow. Now were only 11 games in so 5 or 6 games each home and away isn’t a great set of data as it can be distorted by the fixtures or sending offs etc but it’s a start

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later

Team attack xG

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitary decision that the player must have played 400 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Tuesday 21st November.

Defender xG90 Ranking

Defender xA90 Ranking

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG 90 and xA 90)

Valencia 0.02 and o.02

Otamendi 0.10 and 0.01

Alonso 0.07 and 0.02

Daniels 0.01 and 0.09

Midfielder xG90 ranking

Midfielder xA90 ranking

Martial didn’t make the cut as he was short of minutes (0.59 and 0.39).

Gross didn’t make it (0,o4 and 0.23)

Forward xG 90 ranking

Forward xA ranking

2 players didn’t have the minutes but would have qualified

Niasse  – 0.71 and 0.12

C Wilson – 0.77 and 0.01

Not in the list as didn’t qualify of note

Abraham – 0.41 and 0.10

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