fantasy premier league GW23 transfer tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW23 transfer tips article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the most transferred in players (bandwagons) and most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW23 TRANSFER TIPS – THE BANDWAGONS AND SINKING SHIPS

THE BANDWAGONS

These are the 5 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek.

Stats definition:

Mins per FPL point: the amount of minutes it takes a player to earn an FPL point. The lower the better obviously

ATGS/CS odds GW23: The anytime goal scoring odds or clean sheet odds for Defs for GW23.

Fixture ease: Our article ranking the easiness of their fixtures




Fantasy premier league GW23 transfer tips

LINGARD

The Man Utd midfielder has started 8 of the last 9 games scoring 7 goals and 2 assists in that time in an attacking midfield position.  This is no fluke either.  His underlying stats are excellent.

Probably the main negative if you want to look for them is sustainability. Lingard has scored more goals in those 700 minutes of the last 9 games than he has in the previous 2 seasons of 3,000 minutes total and his underlying stats are twice as good as past seasons. That’s either progress as a player or unsustainable over performance.

He also may lose minutes even if he does hold his place as with the number of AMs at Man Utd substitutions are inevitable.  In the last 8 games he’s started he’s averaged 80 minutes though which isn’t too bad.

However if you’re going to roll the dice at home to a defensive shambles of a Stoke team is a great time to do it

Stoke (H)
Burnley (A)
Spurs (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)

Mahrez

7 goals and 10 assists in his 21 games plus 1 sub appearance added to an ability to win bonus points is a pretty good effort in a fairly mixed performing Leicester team.  He’s also returned a goal or assist in an incredible 67% of his games.

Probably the negative is his underlying stats.  If you look at fantasy premier league expected goals summary article you’ll see he doesn’t feature in the goal threat or assist based top 15 of midfielders.  To be honest his underlying stats are pretty ordinary.  He does have mixed form for over and under performing those stats.  In Leicesters title winning year he significantly over performed.

This season there have been alot of screamers from distance and you have to believe he can keep pulling those out of the bag to believe in him.

Two other negatives are the price.  There’s alot of competition at this price point.

 Lastly if I was getting him in I’m not sure it would be away to Chelsea as the entry point.  If you’re doing so you must really have little to do in your team

Chelsea (A)
Watford (H)
Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
Man City (A)
Stoke (H)

KANE

 Kane and transfers continues to surprise.  High up in the transfers in when he had no fixture in GW21, he’s also now high in the transfers in after his double gameweek.  I’m not goig to try and explain it as I don’t really understand it.  He is looking like he will be the captain poll leader  this week so maybe that’s it? Who knows?

One stat sums up Kane.  He’s returned a goal or assist in 9 of his 20 starts.  For someone of that price to be returning in under 50% of his games is criminal.  However, and here’s the nub of the issue, in 7 of those 9 games he’s got double figure FPL point hauls including 2 consecutive hat tricks.  He’s inconsistent but explosive.  When he does return, he returns big.  Roll in to the mix a popular captain choice and 75% ownership among the top 10k ,according to FPL discovery, and 44% of all managers and you have a recipe for fear guiding FPL managers.  That fear is almost self perpetuating.

Everton (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Arsenal (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Sterling

This guy has it all.  Fantastic returns, fantastic underlying stats and an ability to sniff about the balls probability to go into the 6 yard box like no other midfielder.  He’s also pretty handily priced even still.  I mention him as one of the key players in my article 6 players who will hurt you if you don’t own them.  There really are no negatives, he’s even as close to gametime secure as you can ever get in a Pep team having started 11 of the last 12 PL games and played 90 minutes in 9 of those games.

Just to remind you of the mind boggling basics.  It’s 14 goals and 7 assists in 16 starts plus 4 sub appearances.

Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Burnley (A)
Leicester (H)
Arsenal (A)

Aguero

Alot of interest in Aguero has been prompted by the fact that Jesus is out for 1-2 months.  That ends that particular job share and although Pep has indicated that maybe others could take on the role (not KDB apparently) the fact remains that there is no other out and out striker at the team.

However rumours around signing Arsenals Alexis Sanchez continue with apparently a bid having been made.  Sanchez is the perfect replacement in alot of ways for the situation.  He is a guy who has successfully played striker in the premier league and is, without question, world class.  However when Jesus is back he can play as an attacking midfielder meaning there aren’t 3 top strikers vying for 1 place which I imagine would cause alot of internal problems.  I’m doubtful if you could attract a top out and out striker to be potentially 3rd choice.

That potentially puts Aguero back into the realms of a temporary job share with Sanchez, if the transfer happens, which puts him back to a very expensive rotation risk and hrd to captain for that reason.

However if a transfer doesn’t happen then and you have 2 months of gametime security you will see his ownership swell and his captain popularity rise significantly.  He will then be a potentially dangerous player not to own.

Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Burnley (A)
Leicester (H)
Arsenal (A)

THE SINKING SHIPS

These are the 5 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek.




 fantasy premier league GW23 transfer tips

By the way, you’ll probably wonder why Coutinho isn’t on this list.  As I write this Coutinho has completed his Barca transfer and has been removed from the FPL game so there are no transfer out stats.

Salah

Strange one this.  He is an injury doubt, although it seems likely he will play in GW23.  He also does have a difficult fixture home to Man City.

However neither seem enough to me to justify someone who’s scored 17 goals and 7 assists in 19 games and 2 sub appearances.  He’s also returned a goal or assist in 16 of those matches giving an incredible 76% consistency return rate.  He also has the underlying stats to back it up.

How Coutinho leaving affects him remains to be seen an the only question.

Not a sell for me

Man City (H)
Swansea (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Spurs (H)
Southampton (A)
West Ham (H)

Vardy

There’s not many strikers between the £5/6m mark and then the £10m mark so the indifferent form of Vardy is a blow to variation and flexibility in our FPL squad structure.

He is an injury doubt and despite the 75% chance on the FPL site it seems a little more doubtful from that judging from the managers comments.

The basic stats show that he’s scored 9 goals plus 2 assists in 21 starts returning a goal or assist in 10 of those 21 games at a very ordinary 18.8 minutes per FPL point.  His underlying stats are also poor.  He’s not in the top 15 expected goals total for strikers  in my underlying stats article although he has shown, like Mahrez, the ability to over perform them.

If you’re minded to sell, away to Chelsea is a good exit point.

Chelsea (A)
Watford (H)
Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
Man City (A)
Stoke (H)

Firmino

Firmino, like Vardy, is one of the few forwards between the £5/6m mark and then the £10m mark.  However his returns are far better than Vardys at an FPL point every 13.8 minutes compared to Vardy’s 18.8

Firmino is a strange player though.  On the face of it the 9 goals and 5 assists at an FPL point every 13.8 minutes is good.

There are some weird things going on interestingly.  Firstly his underlying stats look nothing like a striker.  More like an all rounder of an attacking midfielder.  He’s more like Mane than Kane but in some ways he is a diluted Kane.

Like Kane his consistency return rate is poor.  Firmino has returned a goal or assist in 8 of his 18 starts at a poor return rate.  However like Kane when he returns he does so in style.  6 of those 8 returning games have been FPL double figure point hauls.  2 have been against Arsenal and 4 have been against lower placed teams.

So you get Firmno and you take your feast or famine chances.

It will be interesting to see how Coutinho leaving affects him.  The Liverpool Echo produced this stat below which they saw as compelling but it doesn’t seem particularly so to me

In the Premier League, Firmino has started in 11 line-ups with Coutinho, and seven without.

He has scored six in those 11, and just three in those seven, meaning his goals-per-game ratio is better (0.54 v 0.42) when Coutinho plays.

Man City (H)
Swansea (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Spurs (H)
Southampton (A)
West Ham (H)

Morata

Morata was covered in my recent fixture ease article as Chelsea now have a good run of fixtures.  Here’s what I said:

Despite the near comical inability to score gilt edged chances by Morata in the game v Arsenal I remain a fan and believer. His underlying stats are good and very consistently applied. His goals are pretty consistent with his xG and he has no history of under performing his underlying stats. If anything he’s over performed in the past.

10 goals and 4 assists in 19 starts plus 3 part games at an FPL point every 14.8 mins is a reasonable record. The only nagging doubt is the minutes played and intensity of games which is far over and above his recent seasons where he was a secondary player.

Leicester (H)
Brighton (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (A)
West Brom (H)
Man Utd (A)

LUKAKU

Lukaku has scored 10 goals and 4 assists in 20 starts plus 1 sub appearance.   All the starts he played 90 minutes.

In alot of ways he’s the reverse of Harry Kane.  He’s consistent returning a goal or assist in 12 of those 20 games for a good 60% return rate.

However he’s just not explosive at all.  In only 2 of those 12 returning games has he got a double figure FPL point haul and none since GW5.  That’s not captain material and for his price he needs to be.  It’s not helped by a total inability to get bonus points.  Only 10 in total and in the 12 returning games he’s only go bonus points 4 times.

His underlying stats are reasonably good although you would want them to be a little better.  They are getting a little patchy which isn’t helpful.

 What I don’t quite understand is that having kept faith in him for so long why sell him before a home game against Stoke?

Stoke (H)
Burnley (A)
Spurs (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)

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