As you may have seen on Rob’s twitter @Thefpl_vet Rob Reid has activated and completed his fantasy premier league wildcard. Here he talks through the thought process and the team. Rob finished with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before.
fantasy premier league wildcard – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) talks us through his wildcard
Why Gameweek 35?
In the end the decision was fairly straightforward. For me, the predominantly Wildcard exists to either prepare for impending double gameweeks, or to change the fundamental core of the team if you’re losing rank due to missing high ownership or form players. The last few weeks have been disappointing for Chaos Theory. I’d had 4 consecutive red arrows which has seen my rank drop from 25k to 73k, tempered slightly by an ok DGW34 which (despite not a single goal for my team) saw a small rise back to 65k. Here’s my team at the end of GW34.
Why has this happened? Well, similar to FFG I subscribe to the theory that FPL is a game of few events and that 50/50 calls can be vital. Sadly, I’ve got the 50/50 calls wrong in the last few weeks and as a result, my overall rank has suffered. Add to this the fact that we have 2 double gameweeks coming up and I still have my Bench Boost chip to use, GW35 looked ideal for me – this means I can load up for DGWs 36 and 37, take advantage of the better fixtures in GW35 while also leave myself 2 contingency transfers for GW37 which is when I plan to activate my Bench Boost chip. My main problem when doing this has been Team Value. I’m used to sitting around £106m at this stage, but I’ve struggled this year so come into this gameweek at around £103m, which does affect my options as you’ll see below.
Key factors to consider
First of all, a quick reminder of who has double gameweeks to come.
GW36 – Aresnal and Southampton
GW37 – Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester Man City, Man Utd, Southampton, Sunderland, Spurs, Watford and West Brom.
For me, the late season GW37 big double gameweek is far more of a lottery than last season, where there was an earlier big double in GW34. The problem with GW37 is that many teams have nothing to play for, so are looking to blood some new players or rotate. Bearing this in mind, it’s best to first look at teams who have something to play for.
The race for UCL spots is pretty close. Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal should all have something to play for. The title race is still undecided at the moment, but there is a chance it could be over by GW37. If it is, Chelsea may start to rest players in preparation for the FA Cup Final and Spurs are far enough ahead that UCL football is pretty much in the bag, so they present a risk. At the bottom, Sunderland are likely to be relegated in the next week and are so poor anyway that they aren’t a particularly appealing option. Leicester are pretty much safe, as are Watford so they may be subject to rotation. It’s a shame that Swansea, Hull or even Burnley for example don’t have a double.
The next thing to consider is that Arsenal and Southampton both have the luxury of 2 doubles. The fixtures are tricky for both sides, but hey – it’s 4 fixtures in 2 gameweeks; let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth. A goalkeeper from one of these teams is certainly enticing – 4 games worth of save points, never mind the clean sheets is worth having. It’s also worth remembering that quite a lot of people will use their Triple Captain chip in DGW36, so covering this may be necessary to protect rank.
Next up is fixture ease. Looking at the FFG Fixture Ease Schedule, City, Chelsea, Southampton and Spurs all come nice and high up the table, as do Sunderland as well. Watford and West Brom rank much further down with Arsenal, Leicester and Man Utd having a mixed bag.
And finally, and maybe most importantly there is form. Spurs and Chelsea are in great form, but so are some players from single gameweek teams like King, Coutinho and Lukaku. The latter also has very high ownership so if he’s not in your team and he fills his boots, then your overall rank will suffer.
Picking the Team
Right, let’s get to it. Here’s what I think is needed.
1) Sufficient Arsenal and Southampton coverage to cover both double gameweeks, possibly including a goalkeeper. This will also take advantage of a good GW35 for the Saints (Hull H.) The trade-off here is that Arsenal have the North London derby away to Spurs in GW35 so need to have scope to bench here. 4 players total minimum, preferably 5 or 6.
Contenders – Forster or Cech, Sanchez, Gabbiadini, cheaper defenders as will need budget elsewhere – Stephens, Yoshida, Gabriel for example.
2) Cover the DGW36 Triple Captain option.
Contenders – Sanchez looks the best option, but Ozil, Gabbiadini and Giroud may be considered by the more brave
3) Coverage from Chelsea, Spurs, City and possibly Man Utd. First 2 teams have great form and Chelsea have excellent fixtures after they get GW35 vs Everton out the way. City also have great fixtures, Man Utd are a bit more mixed but have a nice GW35 and have high ownership in defence.
Contenders – Alonso (Chelsea defence been a bit more suspect of late but still good for attacking returns), Hazard, Costa, Davies (though gametime could be a problem if Rose is fit, other Spurs defenders are more expensive), Alli, Eriksen, Kane, Caballero (a bargain option with Bravo injured), Clichy (again rotation could be a factor), Sane, Aguero (again could be a gametime risk when Jesus fit), De Bruyne, Sterling, Blind, Valencia, Rashford, Herrera.
4) Attention to the in-form non-DGW players – King (especially considering his form and fixtures), Liverpool midfielders, Lukaku.
5) Cheap fillers with a double gameweek for all other unoccupied positions, ready for the Bench Boost in DGW37.
The Final Line-up
So here it is – my second Wildcard of the season.
Here’s the rundown, with the plan being to play my final chip, Bench Boost in GW37.
Goalkeepers
Caballero – Bargain route into an improving City defence with good fixtures.
Pickford – This was always going to be a cheap filler. Pickford is the cheapest DGW option and who knows may even pick up some points when I Bench Boost.
It was a tough call not to pick Cech or Forster; I love keepers with double gameweeks – De Gea certainly bailed me out this week. The opportunity arising from Bravo’s injury is too good to turn down though, provided of course that Pep doesn’t turn to the young and highly promising Angus Gunn.
Defenders
Gabriel – 6 games in 4 weeks coming up for The Gunners, place seems secure now Wenger has settled on back 3 and with Mustafi still a little way away from fitness
Yoshida – another with 6 games in 4 weeks and a nice GW35 home to Hull. Also a good budget enabler at £4.4m
Stephens – more Saints cover and even more budget friendly at £4.1m
Blind – Tempted by Bailly here, and is a bit of a gametime risk but I need the security of that extra £0.2m in the bank as you’ll see later.
Evans – Another cheap filler, he’ll be bench fodder for at least the next 2 weeks and then come out for Bench Boost.
The tough decision here was to sell Marcos Alonso. I’m a huge fan and he’s brilliant for my team since I bought him back in GW17. I’m sad to see him go, but the Chelsea defence has exactly been watertight of late so we’re relying on his attacking returns. I also fear he’ll be one of the first to be rotated if Chelsea win the league by GW37, in a bid to protect his fitness for the FA Cup final. That combined with the lower ownership of Chelsea defenders swayed my decision not to include him. So it’s a sad farewell to Marcos.
Midfielders
Sanchez – his exploits the other night were a tad embarrassing, but with his GW36 Triple Captain potential needing covered he was the first name on the teamsheet.
Hazard – the little Belgian has certainly hit some form again and gives me Chelsea attacking coverage.
Eriksen – couldn’t quite afford to keep Alli, but a more than capable alternative.
King – Stupidly sold be me in GW32 to accommodate Aguero, he’s the first of 2 non-double players who make the squad. The Cherries have some nice fixtures and this guy is out of position and in great form.
Capoue – A return to my squad for the early-season points machine. This was always about a cheap filler from a double gameweek team and he looks the best option of a bonus extra return when I play Bench Boost.
No City coverage is the risk factor here. I was very tempted by Sane, but can see Pep tinkering and it would have meant leaving out Eriksen or King and they’re in too good a form to do this. No Liverpool cover is my other worry here – they may have no doubles, but they do have players who can hurt ranking if they score big and the Watford fixture on Monday has potential.
Forwards
Kane – I’ve been after him for a couple of weeks and he’s the trade-off to not having Alli or Eriksen. Fixtures a bit mixed, but form is good.
Lukaku – my second non-double player. High ownership scares me here so I’ve held him, though I’ll probably sell for Costa in GW37 which is why I’ve kept some funds free to enable this.
Gabbiadini – my third Saints player and likely captain for GW35. Only thing to watch is his gametime if Austin comes back, but if he stays in form he should maintain is place.
Some tough calls here – this was the worst selection I found. Costa is difficult to ignore and I’m sad to sell Aguero, though Jesus’ return from injury complicates things here with the latter possibly offering a GW37 alternative to Gabbiadini should the Italian lose his place. No City attacking coverage is a worry for me, but I plan to carry my transfer next week leaving me 2 for GW37 so this may be something I can remedy there – could sell Lukaku and King for example and bring in at least one City player.
So there it is. I plan to bench Pickford, Evans, Gabriel and Capoue this week with Gabbiadini captain. Next week I’ll likely bench Pickford, Evans, Capoue and Blind. This will then give me 2 transfers in DGW37 to tidy up any injuries or to possibly look at City cover. I hope this provides some food for thought for you all and of course comments, as ever, are greatly welcomed. All the best for this gameweek – I’ll be back before GW37 with another review article.
Thanks for a really interesting read Rob and good luck this gameweek
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