FPL Forward tips GW30 – player rankings

Here’s our FPL forward tips GW30 article in our player rankings series to help you make a transfer decision for your fantasy premier league team

FPL FORWARD TIPS GW30 – PLAYER RANKINGS

First it’s important to remember that each player is ranked as a transfer target for this week. So while we generally look at fixtures form and underlying stats a player who’s away to Man City is going to be ranked lower than someone home to Huddersfield for example. If possible a transfer should have a good fixture first up.

This is the 3rd player rankings article. There’s a defenders player rankings article and midfielder player rankings.  You can also see who the bandwagons are for GW30

STATS DEFINITIONS

Fixt Ease: The ease of the mentioned fixture range from an attacking perspective. See our GW 30 fixture ease article.

Pts Per 90: This is the anount of FPL points earned per 90 minutes played

ATGS – the bookies anytime goalscoring odds for GW30.

Underlying stats rank. I’ve ranked midfielders on their expected goals and assists per 90 minutes played from the better than excellent site understat.com. I’ve converted those into attacking FPL points to rank all the midfielders. That’s in our expected goals article and Joseph Crilleys gameweek 29 review article is a reference to underlying stats in the last gameweek.

GW31 fixtures – this refers to the potential upcoming blank week of GW31. There’s a Y if they have a fixture in place. There is no inherent ranking improvement due to this fixture as it will depend how you intend to deal with it eg Free Hit.  See the latest blank and double gameweeks article

IMPORTANT NOTE

As I said in the midfield player rankings, there are 2 things I’d like to remind you of :

As I said above it’s a ranking of transfer targets for this week.  So using the same example of  Shaqiri who maybe an important blank GW31 target playing Man City is the worst possible entry point and his ranking reflected that

It’s important to remember how vital the chips are at this time of year.  Many of you including myself, most likely, are planning on wildcarding in GW32.  That will mean you have a different, more short term view,  and GW31 focus on a player than someone without a wildcard.  The rankings don’t inherently favour GW31 players they try and strike a balance.  Again using Shaqiri as an example he has terrible fixtures and underlying stats despite recent form but is am important player for GW31.  However he is a questionable transfer if you can’t get him out afterwards.

However apart from all that, there’s also a decent amount of info to use to make your own assessment depending on your individual situation

THE SCHEDULE

Here’s the link to the google spreadsheet if you’re struggling on a phone or want to copy it yourself




fpl forward tips GW30

Kane

From an FPL perspective Spurs going out of the UCL is a great result (sorry to say that Joe!).  Kane has a chance for some midweek breathers to ensure he can keep up the 90 minute PL appearances he has been making.  He’s started 27 of the 29 gameweeks plus 1 sub appearance.  He’s scored a quite phenomenal 24 goals and 2 assists accruing 27 bonus points along the way.  His return consistency was an issue at one stage but now he’s returned a goal or assist in 15 of those 27 starts.  A reasonably healthy 56%.

It’s his explosiveness that’s his trademark though and 8 of those 15 returning games have seen double figure FPL point hauls.  Recent form box ticked too with 3 goals and an assist in his last 4.  Underlying stats are also excellent with only Aguero and Jesus as forwards having better ones.

A tough game on Wednesday in the UCL v Juve is the only blunting on his likely captaincy favouritism this weekend.

 Bournemouth (A)
Blank GW31
Chelsea (A)
Stoke (A)

Firmino

The Liverpool CF/false 9 has been in good form recently with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 games.  That makes it 13 goals and 8 assists in 25 starts and 3 sub appearances.  He’s returned a goal or assist in 13 of those starts for a return rate of 52%.  That’s just about acceptable but like Kane he’s also the master of the bonus and double digit FPL haul with a total of 7 and 26 bonus points respectively.

The one negative is his underlying stats which are pretty ordinary.  However he has shown an ability to outperform them previously which is how you could justify the short coming.  A hard player not to own for the blank GW31.  Surprisingly started in the UCL game midweek which may blunt his performance at the weekend.

Man Utd (A)
Watford (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Everton (A)

Lukaku

Lukaku receives alot of negativity from FPL managers but there are some positives.  He’s scored a respectable 14 goals plus 6 assists in his 27 starts plus 1 sub appearance.  His consistency return rate is very good having scored or assisted in 17 of those 27 starts (63%).  His recent form is also good with 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 matches.  The 4-1 4 1 system Mourinho has used puts Pogba in his best position as well as seemingly benefiting Lukaku.

However he has a real bonus point problem with just 15, 5 of those coming in the last 2 games.  That has contributed to him only having 3 double figure FPL point hauls which is the reason why he is largely ignored due to his price and that limitation making him a poor captain choice.

Liverpool (H)
Blank GW31
Swansea (H)
Man City (A)

Aguero

In my mind there are only 2 strikers who come close to Aguero in the premier league.  1 is Kane and the other unfortunately is his team mate Gabriel Jesus and there lies the problem.  I can go into all the stats you want but if he turns into a job share he is a difficult player to own.  With Jesus playing 90 minutes in the UCL midweek, his first start since his injury, then it’s difficult to see Aguero not starting v Stoke in GW30.  After that it could be a difficult ride

Stoke (A)
Blank GW31
Everton (A)
Man Utd (H)

Aubameyang

The former Dortmund striker could not have joined Arsenal at a more difficult time.  4 games, 2 goals and 3 bonus points is not a disaster although his underlying stats so far are way way off what they should be and look more like a £5.0m FPL striker.  I personally think for a guy who wants to play off the shoulder of the last defender he looks incredibly isolated with Ozil and Mkhitaryan drifting way too far away from him.  Still the fixtures couldn’t be much better so if you’re ever going to roll the dice with him now’s the time

Watford (H)
None
Stoke (H)
Southampton (H)

Morata

A great fixture next is the transfer attraction but there are alot of risks which would come with it.  Morata has only started 1 game since GW24 and that was in GW28 v Man Utd.  The issue doesn’t really to appear to be the stats.  In 18 starts he’s scored 10 goals plus 5 assists gathering a reasonably respectable 13 bonus in 10 returning games (56%).  His underlying stats and points per 90 minutes are pretty good.  Only 3 double figure FPL point hauls and none since GW6 are an issue though for the price.

However time on the pitch is the main issue.  His body doesn’t seem to have adjusted to being a starter in the premier league after being mainly a sub at Real Madrid and Juventus.  He also now has Giroud who could take minutes at the end of games from him.

 Crystal Palace (H)
Blank GW31
Spurs (H)
West Ham (H)




Mounie

A promising early few games was halted by an early season injury which then followed a number of sub appearances.  However now,  the former Montpellier striker, looks to have finally found his feet. He has started and played 90 minutes in the last 3 games scoring 2 goals and 2 assists in those matches picking up 5 bonus points along the way.

He has a GW31 fixture plus a good set of fixtures around it.  His underlying stats could be better but you’re banking on recent form and fixtures plus the GW31 fixture as your transfer reason

Swansea (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Newcastle (A)
Brighton (A)

Vardy

There are alot of good things to say about Jamie Vardy.  He is pretty much guaranteed to play 90 minutes every week having started 28 games 22 for 87 minutes or more.  He’s also pretty consistent for the price returning a goal or assist in 14 matches for a total of 13 goals and 2 assists.  Plus he has pens and also is in good recent form having scored in 4 consecutive games up to GW27.  He’s also accrued a very respectable 20 bonus points.

 But something isn’t quite right.  He’s only got 1 double figure FPL point haul which was in GW1 and his underlying stats are, quite frankly, terrible.  For his price no one in the 41 strikers I assessed in my expected goals article is worse for the cost.Now all is not lost as he has shown in the past he can outperform them but it’s not a great background.

West Brom (A)
Blank GW31
Brighton (A)
Newcastle (H)

Gayle

Gayle has now started the last 4 matches scoring 2 goals plus 1 assist. However he only averaged 78 minutes and gametime is the real issue.  Especially with new signing Slimani injured but surely waiting in the wings at some stage.

Over the season he’s had 15 starts plus 9 as sub with 5 goals and 2 assists from it.  His main positive is some decent fixtures in the near future plus some pretty good underlying stats for the price

Southampton (H)
Blank 31
Huddersfield (H)
Leicester (A)

Murray 

With 5 goals in his last 5 games Murray really is one of the form strikers in the league.  He also has penalty duties which is a big attraction and a reasonable set of fixtures upcoming.  Over the season the returns are also reasonable good with 11 goals and 0 assists from 20 starts plus 7 as sub.  He’s also accrued a reasonable respectable 16 bonus points along the way.

The negatives are the amount of gametime.  Even the successful last 5 fixtures have only seen him average 78 minutes.  Is that the 34 years of age coming into play?  He also has new expensive signing Locadia waiting in the wings for any dip in form and to take minutes off him later in games.    His underlying stats are also just about ok at a push.,

Everton (A)
Blank GW31
Leicester (H)
Huddersfield (H)

Benteke

It’s a sign of the money invested by Palace in Benteke and the paucity of other options that Benteke could go 10 starts plus 2 sub appearances to start the season without scoring and still play 90 minutes virtually every game when fit.

However since breaking that duck he’s been like a man transformed and in 11 games it’s been 2 goals plus 7 assists with him returning a goal or assist in 8 of those 11 matches.  The underlying stats are also pretty good.  Bonus is an issue though with only 5 earned.  Proably due to his wastefulness.  Fixtures are mixed but he does have a good GW31 fixture

Chelsea (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Liverpool (H)
Bournemouth (A)

Wilson

If the goal and assist vs Chelsea and  12 FPL points were supposed to herald in a run of returns and glory for Wilson it’s been anything but.  4 consecutive blanks have followed incredibly against Stoke, Huddersfield, Newcastle and Leicester.  The last 2 games have seen 70 minute odd substitutions and he now looks a real gametime risk vs Defoe.  Probably his saving grace is his GW31 fixture but you take a fair bit of gametime risk in with that.

Spurs (H)
West Brom (H)
Watford (A)
Crystal Palace (H)

Deeney

Probably the easiest way to introduce Deeney is to write off the season prior to GW23 as being one of sub appearances, suspensions and injuries.  Since he came on as sub v Southampton in GW23 and provided the assist for the 90th minute equaliser he’s played 90 minutes ever since.  In that 7 game spell he’s scored 3 goals (including 1 pen) plus an assist, returning in 4 of those 7 games and collecting 6 bonus points as he went on.  Tricky next 2 fixtures with Liverpool being the GW31 game.

Arsenal (A)
Liverpool (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Burnley (H)

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