Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW34 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer poll
fantasy premier league captain pick GW34 – plus transfer poll results
Fixtures
The Bookies team to win odds
The odds are for the team to win with the return from a £1.00 bet
Man City v Newcastle £1.11 – De Bruyne, Sterling, Jesus, Mahrez
Villa v Man Utd £1.33 – Fernandes, Martial, Rashford, Greenwood
Palace v Chelsea £1.47 – Pulisic, Giroud/Abraham
Brighton v Liverpool £1.53 – Salah, Mane, Firmino
Bournemouth v Spurs £1.63 – Kane, Son
Watford v Norwich £1.65 – Deeney, Sarr
The anytime goal scorer odds
The odds are the return for a £1 bet. They assume the player starts and ignore assist potential.
£1.85 – Kane, Aubameyang, Jesus, Sterling,
£1.91 – Martial, Rashford, Salah, Foden
£2.00 – Abraham, Calvert Lewin
£2.05 – Deeney, Mane
£2.10 – Vardy, Mahrez
£2.20 – Sarr, Richarlison, Giroud
£2.25 – De Bruyne
£2.37 – Pulisic, Jimenez
Son is £2.62 Fernandes £2.60 and Greenwood £2.75
The FFGeek Poll
The FFGeek captain poll asks who will be your captain? Thanks for taking the time to vote
The poll went up before the Spurs v Everton match
Other FPL polls
Here are the various Poll results
Contributor Picks
Stats comparison
De Bruyne vs Fernandes vs Kane
Here’s some key performance stats. They are overall on a season basis home and away stats as the difference is somewhat theoretical at the moment.
PPM is points per match
Consistency is the % of games where the play got a goal or assist.
Explosiveness is the % of those returns that got a FPL 10 points or more.
Man City are 1st in total xG and 1st in shots per game.
Man Utd are ranked 4th in XG and 4th in shots per game.
Spurs are ranked 10th in XG and 11th in shots per game.
Gametime
As De Bruyne was on the bench vs Southampton and only played 31 minutes. That and the fact that they lost is the narrative for him starting in GW34. FPL managers are still subject to Pep uncertainty.
Man Utd’s schedule which is Saturday, Thursday and Monday has reasonable rest time. Fernandes has played every game and is pretty crucial to the system. United are chasing a top 4 spot. He looks good for starting
Monday, Thursday and Sunday is Spurs schedule. Kane generally plays every game when fit so difficult to see him rested when they are also chasing a top 4 spot.
The Villa defence
20th ranked in goals conceded. 62 from 33 games
They are 20th in xG conceded with 65.
Shots per game against they are 20th with 16.9
It’s worth noting that they put up good numbers though against Wolves and Liverpool
The Newcastle defence
12th ranked in goals conceded. 45 from 33 games
They are 17th in xG conceded with 57 expected goals.
Shots per game against they are 17th with 14.9
The Bournemouth defence
18th ranked in goals conceded. 50 from 33 games
They are 16th in xG conceded with 56 expected goals.
Shots per game against they are 18th with 15.1
Bournemouth have conceded 9 goals in the last 2 on the back of defensive injuries which still seem to be an issue. xGA in those games was just under 5.
Summary
You would think De Bruyne would play given that he was on the bench in the Southampton loss. Man Utd’s schedule gives reasonable rest and chasing a top 4 spot gives incentive for Fernandes to be selected. Kane will generally play for Spurs and they are also chasing a top 4 spot.
The bookies have Kane along with others as the most likely to score in the gameweek. The bookies see De Bruyne and Fernandes as assist based players and therefore they are significantly behind Kane in the odds.
The FFGeek poll just favours Fernandes. However the other polls favour De Bruyne comprehensively
The FFGeek contributor views are firmly behind De Bruyne.
The stats tend to favour De Bruyne although actual returns favour Fernandes. Fernandes is overperforming his underlying stats it’s just whether you think that’s an issue or not. Kanes stats and Spurs as a team are pretty ordinary.
Bournemouth have conceded 9 goals in the last 2 on the back of defensive injuries although they have been pretty poor all season. Villa have been terrible all season but the last 2 games against Wolves and Liverpool have seen much better defensive numbers. Newcastles good clean sheet and goals conceded numbers mask some pretty poor underlying numbers.
All 3 players have penalty duties.
The FFGeek choice
I’m likely to go for De Bruyne. I trust him more than Fernandes personally.
The Transfer Polls
I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.
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