fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW12


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Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league expected goals totals to GW12. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

 fantasy premier league expected goals – totals to GW12

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.

TEAM DEFENCE XG

I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow. Now were only 11 games in so 5 or 6 games each home and away isn’t a great set of data as it can be distorted by the fixtures or sending offs etc but it’s a start

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later




Ovr RankTeamxGAHome RankAway Rank
1Man City6.8421
2Spurs9.5033
3Chelsea11.2592
4Man Utd12.5366
5Arsenal14.33512
6Newcastle14.83135
7Liverpool14.89118
8Huddersfield15.15811
9WBA15.18154
10Brighton15.54147
11Leicester15.561010
12Burnley15.64417
13Southampton15.87716
14Swansea18.06198
15Bournemouth18.371614
16Everton19.351813
17Stoke19.481715
18Watford20.08209
19C Palace20.601120
20West Ham20.691219


Team attack xG

Ovr RankTeamxGHome RankAway Rank
1Man City34.1411
2Liverpool26.3032
3Man Utd24.5225
4Arsenal23.1546
5Spurs19.2874
6Watford16.94123
7Leicester15.9288
8C Palace15.63513
9Chelsea15.44117
10Southampton14.50614
11Everton14.09911
12Newcastle13.311310
13Stoke12.881015
14West Ham11.64189
15Swansea10.331419
16WBA10.121518
17Brighton9.462012
18Bournemouth9.441717
19Huddersfield8.561916
20Burnley8.081620

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitary decision that the player must have played 400 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Tuesday 21st November.

Defender xG90 Ranking

RankDefenderClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1MatipLiverpool5.50.190.05
2BainesEverton5.80.160.11
3MilnerLiverpool6.20.140.21
4BaillyMan Utd6.10.130.03
5BritosWatford4.50.120.12
6ShawcrossStoke4.80.120.02
7LovrenLiverpool5.50.110.01
8BellerinArsenal5.90.110.11
9DannC Palace4.70.110.02
10SchluppC Palace4.70.100.08

Defender xA90 Ranking

RankDefenderClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1WalkerMan City6.60.010.23
2DaviesSpurs5.70.100.23
3KolasinacArsenal6.00.060.22
4TrippierSpurs5.70.000.21
5MilnerLiverpool6.20.140.21
6HolebasWatford5.00.020.20
7AzpilicuetaChelsea6.80.050.20
8MaguireLeicester5.10.020.15
9Van DijkSouthampton5.40.070.15
10GomezLiverpool4.60.010.14

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG 90 and xA 90)

Valencia 0.02 and o.02

Otamendi 0.10 and 0.01

Alonso 0.07 and 0.02

Daniels 0.01 and 0.09




Midfielder xG90 ranking

RankMidfielderClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1SalahLiverpool9.60.700.19
2SterlingMan City8.10.670.42
3PogbaMan Utd8.00.570.18
4SanchezArsenal11.80.530.45
5RicharlisonWatford6.50.470.20
6ZahaC Palace6.80.430.10
7SaneMan City9.00.420.49
8RamseyArsenal7.00.420.18
9ManeLiverpool9.30.390.04
10AlliSpurs9.20.370.18
11Son HMSpurs7.90.340.14
12SilvaMan City8.40.330.46
13Choupo MStoke5.70.310.19
14HazardChelsea10.60.280.24
15TadicSouthampton6.40.260.12

Midfielder xA90 ranking

RankMidfielderClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1OzilArsenal9.30.160.50
2SaneMan City9.00.420.49
3SilvaMan City8.40.330.46
4SanchezArsenal11.80.530.45
5SterlingMan City8.10.670.42
6De BruyneMan City10.10.170.34
7MkhitaryanMan Utd7.90.100.34
8MataMan Utd6.90.090.31
9BruntWBA5.20.010.29
10IbeBournemouth4.90.100.28
11RitchieNewcastle5.80.080.28
12FabregasChelsea6.90.140.27
13MahrezLeicester8.40.200.26
14ShaqiriStoke6.00.090.26
15EriksenSpurs9.50.180.25

Martial didn’t make the cut as he was short of minutes (0.59 and 0.39).

Gross didn’t make it (0,o4 and 0.23)

Forward xG 90 ranking

RankForwardClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1AgueroMan City11.71.030.53
2JesusMan City10.50.980.03
3OkazakiLeicester5.60.760.10
4LukakuMan Utd11.50.740.15
5KaneSpurs12.80.700.11
6MorataChelsea10.50.630.15
7LacazetteArsenal10.30.550.15
8WelbeckArsenal7.30.530.21
9MurrayBrighton5.80.500.01
10VardyLeicester8.50.480.09

Forward xA ranking

RankForwardClubPrice £mxG90xA90
1AgueroMan City11.81.030.53
2FirminoLiverpool8.50.280.35
3RashfordMan Utd7.60.310.28
4WelbeckArsenal7.30.530.21
5SturridgeLiverpool8.00.580.18
6LukakuMan Utd11.50.740.17
7PerezNewcastle5.40.140.15
8KingBournemouth7.00.130.15
9GrayWatford6.30.230.14
10RooneyEverton7.30.290.14

2 players didn’t have the minutes but would have qualified

Niasse  – 0.71 and 0.12

C Wilson – 0.77 and 0.01

Not in the list as didn’t qualify of note

Abraham – 0.41 and 0.10

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