fantasy premier league GW16 captain choice

Here’s our fantasy premier league GW16 captain choice article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW16 CAPTAIN CHOICE

If the article’s a bit long there’s a summary at the end.

FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW16.

The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league GW15 captain choice will come from one of those teams.

Chelsea £1.50 – Hazard, Morata

Liverpool £1.30 – Salah, Mane, Coutinho and Firmino

Spurs – £1.28  Kane, Alli Erikse

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security although that doesn’t apply for Man City. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.55 – Kane

£1.75 – Salah

£1.85 – Firmino

£1.91 – Morata

£2.05 – Hazard, Lacazette, Coutinho, Mane, Jesus, Aguero

£2.20 – Sanchez

£2.25 – Alli, Wood

£2.30 – Vardy

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Thanks to everybody who voted in the FFGeek poll.

It’s also worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll. Unfortunately it’s only been up around 24 hours so the number of votes is low

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and it asks who is the best captain

WHO ARE THE FFGEEK CONTRIBUTORS PICKING?

 Blanks are where I haven’t had a team this week.

You can see their teams in the contributor teams articles part 1 and part 2

THOUGHTS ON HAZARD, SALAH, KANE AND MORATA

HAZARD

Hazard played 90 minutes midweek in the UCL but having been rested in GW14 it’s hard to not see him play in a local derby.

 Given Hazard played as a striker effectively against Newcastle I can see the 3-5-2 formation being rolled out again

Hazard has started 8 games and returned a goal or assist in 5 of those games and in 5 of the last 6 starts.  His ability to pick up bonus points is unparalleled in midfielders.

The Newcastle game has now moved Hazard’s stats into the  very good status.  4 of his last 5 starts have seen good goal threat or assist threat stats

There are 3 comparable games:

Palace away where he blanked

Bournemouth away where he scored and got 11 FPL points

Watford A where he scored twice and an assist for 18 points

He has the big advantage of penalties.

Chelsea’s form is excellent winning 4 of their last 5 games scoring 10 goals in the process.

West Ham home defence

The West Ham defence ranks 14th in goals conceded with 11 against.  In xG conceded they are 10th and shouldn’t have conceded the aount of goals they did.

2 comparable games at home this season have seen big scores against.  Spurs 2-3 and Liverpool 1-4

The question revolves around what difference if any David Moyes can make to the team.  He will approach the game more defensively than Bilic would have and been far more aware of the counter attack which destroyed them against Liverpool.

 West Ham however have a multitude of defensive injuries.  Fonte is definitely out, Reid is a late fitness test and Collins is unlikely to play.

SALAH

Salah played the full 90 minutes midweek although hard to see him not playing in the Merseyside derby.  He was also on the bench in GW14.  Should be in his normal position of the right of the front 3

He’s started 13 games plus 2 as sub and scored 12 goals and 4 assists including 7 goals in his last 4 games. He’s returned a goal or assist in 11 of those 15 games. His underlying stats are fantastic and he’s been a goal threat in every game except for 3.  He’s no slouch on the bonus either.

I would say there are 3 comparable home games that’ he played:

Burnley (1-1) he scored 10 pts.

Huddersfield (3-0) 1 assist 4 pts

Southampton (3-0)  2 goals 16 points

As of the start of the gameweek according to the excellent site FPL discovery Salah was owned by 95% of the top 10k. This can be some sort of proxy for active FPL managers. This could mean a ranking backlash should Salah get a big haul and makes him the closest thing to a shield option for this gameweek although he is a relatively low percentage pick.

Liverpool are in outstanding form with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 games and 16 goals scored

 Everton away defence

The Everton defence is 17th in goals conceded and 13th in xG conceded which means they shouldn’t have conceded what they did.

Comparable results away are:

Man City 1-1

Chelsea 0-2

Man Utd 0-4

How the defence performs will depend on how significantly Big Sam has been able to improve them in the short time he’s been there. He has previously taken a while for the benefits to be felt.

Jagielka is fit although whether he will play or make a difference is questionable

MORATA

 Morata is a rest risk for me and there is a story that he is injured so I will leave him for this

KANE

See my article for further reading on Kane and DGW22

 Kane wasn’t even on the bench for the UCL match midweek so has to be certain to start

 Kane has scored 10 goals and 1 assist in 14 starts.  However he’s only returned a goal or assist in 6 of 14 starts which is the poorest of all the premium strikers.  However he is the most explosive of the forwards with 4 of his 14 game’s seeing 10+ FPL points.

At home he’s been a disaster with blanks at home to Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth and C Palace.   The only other comparable game was WBA at home where he scored and got 8 FPL points.  The underlying stats don’t rescue him in those blanks.  He was poor in 2 games.

Spurs form is questionable in the last 5.  They’ve lost 2 drawn 2 and only won 1 scoring 4 goals

The Stoke defence

Stoke are 15th in away defences conceding 15 goals.  The only away game against a top 6 side was the disaster that was the 7-2 loss to Man City.

 At the moment they have Martins Indi and Cameron injured but will have Shawcross, Zouma and Wimmer as CBs

Snow watch

There could be an issue with the Manchester and Liverpool derby matches although it’s snowed today here in Manchester. Whoever you choose I would have 1 of Hazard or Kane as vice as the South seemingly will be less effected

SUMMARY

 The bookies favour Kane heavily with Salah not far behind

 The Polls are quite even with Kane and Hazard

The contributors have mainly gone Kane

Hazard should start, has recent form and good opposition although one with an unknown new defensive manager effect. Chelsea are also in good form.  His underlying stats are now good and he has generally outperformed them. He also has pens. Hazard is the sword option for me

Salah has been the player of the season and his form, consistency and underlying stats are fantastic.  He will play a team that will pack the area with a manager desperate to “outwit” Klopp as he will see it.  He is a shield pick to some extent although his high ownership is mitigated by a low active manager pick

Morata seems a start risk to me so I have ruled him out

 Kane and Spurs have been terrible at home.  His underlying stats don’t help him and the last 2 games are particularly poor.  Stoke have been poor away but only have 1 comparable game, the 7-2 thrashing v Man City

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 I still don’t know!  I feel that the rational choice is a coin toss between Hazard and Salah.  I’m probably exposed enough to Chelsea so Salah would be the choice.  However I feel I should see the Kane captaincy through

I’ll update you  on twitter later

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