fantasy premier league tips forwards GW22 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW22 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make your transfer choice.

fantasy premier league tips forwards GW22 – player rankings





This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings and midfield player ranking article.

Methodology

I’ve generally started with a selection of forwardss that I think will start GW22 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers. This is very different to my recent underlying stats article which took this seasons underlying stats adjusting it only for the average minutes played in the last 4 games

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

Stats definitions

SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility. Pen (2) means they are 2nd in line for penalties.

PP90 mins adjusted: I’ve taken their Points per 90 for my projected minutes over the next 6.

FFG Proj PPG next 6: The PPG for the next 6 resulting from my analysis as outlined above.

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.

Projected Mins: I’ve made an assessment on projected minutes for the next 6 based on the season so far.

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW22-27 and GW22-24. See our fixture ease article

xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com

SH90 and KP90 – shots and key passes per 90 minutes played. Also from understat

ATGS odds – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential.

A quick note re upcoming blank and double gameweeks

The schedule below isn’t adjusted for potential blank and double gameweeks.

GW27 is likely to a blank gameweek due to the EFL Cup final and it’s unlikely the PL games can be played in that GW as GW28 is a midweek gameweek. Given Man City are playing Burton and leading handsomely as I wrte this in the EFL semi then you have to think that’s a certainty to see Man City in the final and the GW27 fixture of Everton v Man City will be postponed.

1 of Chelsea v Brighton or Burnley v Spurs will also follow suit. That would make GW27 a blank week. There is a precedent for it being moved forward so it could be played between 25 and 26 if there are no clash with 4th round FA Cup replays but it’s likely if history means anything that it will go to gameweeks further on where there are no European games midweek.

I will do a separate article soon

The schedule

The schedule ranks players by the FFG projected PPG over the next 6 games.

If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet. The spreadsheet should be easy to sort into the various columns as I’ve separated them out apart from the consistency fractions.




fantasy premier league tips forwards GW22

A few comments

So you can see my projected PPG’s vs their actual ones and most are relatively close although I seem to be projecting higher than their actual on all but a few.

The only ones who have actuals higher than my projected are Wilson who’s got some tricky fixtures coming up.  Barnes who I think has got good figures helped by his 2 sub goals v Bournemouth.  Lastly there’s Jimenez who I’ve also ranked very low.  His underlying stats aren’t great to be honest and he hasn’t shown himself to be a great finisher statistically plus his fixtures aren’t great.  However he does have good consistency stats and shooting volume stats on the plus side.

Rashford if he can hold his place looks good value as does Arnautovic if he can stay injury free.  Barnes in the cheap range also looks a good punt if he can keep the minutes up.

The next 6 fixtures from the official FPL site

 fantasy premier league tips midfielders GW22

There’s also our 10 top FPL managers article

If you want to see any players underlying stats see our cumulative season article and also our GW21 only underlying stats review

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3 thoughts on “fantasy premier league tips forwards GW22 – player rankings”

  1. Hi Geek thanks for the detailed article, and for the clue regarding the blank gw in 27 (maybe need to avoid city players if we don’t want to use free hit),
    Regarding Jimenez, I think he is underrated as he is ranked 5th in the consistency %, and I think that they have excellent fixtures after the city match , although the fpl site rank LEI and WHU 3 , I think those games at home are max 2.5, so they have 7 games in a row with rank not more than 3, it’s a nice run..

    • Thanks Yaniv

      I think the Jimenez ranking is down to his underlying stats not being that great and the fact that this season and the one at Atheltico he scored underneath his expected goals and the fixtures could be better at least. I agree with you that a home fixture with West Ham isn’t a 3 although the Leicester one just may qualify. I’d like to ditch the official FPL fixture rating as the fact that it doesn’t distinguish between defence and attack causes some inaccuracies with Bournemouth def v attack and Arsenal def v attack being examples. It is a big task though that I haven’t been able to get a grip of.

      One thing for certain is if I had chosen Jimenez over Ings I’d be in a better position now. Especially as I had Ing’s 13 points v Arsenal on my bench. Good luck this week

      Man City (A)
      Leicester (H)
      West Ham (H)
      Everton (A)
      Newcastle (H)
      Bournemouth (A)

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