Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW34 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make your transfer choice.
fantasy premier league tips forwards GW34 – player rankings
This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player and the midfielder rankings
Methodology
I’ve generally started with a selection of forwards who have fixtures and I think will start in GW34 and have some longevity in the team.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 5 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.
Stats definitions
PP90 mins adjusted: I’ve taken their Points per 90 and adjusted them for average minutes played in the last 10 games.
FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played
Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count
Average mins last 10: The average minutes played when starting in the last 10 gameweeks
ATGS odds – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential. There are no odds for game 2.
Form ranking: See my form article. These are their rankings among midfielders for the last 10 and 5 gameweeks. NA means they didn’t play enough minutes to qualify.
Player values are as of 11 April
The schedule
Here’s a link to the google spreadsheet if you want to copy it and make any adjustments or filter a particular way
The players are ranked on their ongoing FFGeek points per game assessment. The FFG projection includes an adjustment for fixture difficulty to the end of the season. The lower the number the better the fixtures to the end of the season. See my fixture ease article
A few players with FFG projections different than their current PP90
Aubameyang is about fixtures and incredible underlying stats
King is partly about fixtures and partly because he has been undershooting his underlying stats despite a strong history of over performing which gives hope for improvement
Murray is about good fixtures as is Ings as is Lacazette
Lukaku has been undershooting his underlying stats despite a history of over performing which gives hope for improvement
Who ticks all the boxes?
Aside from my projections in my mind you would ideally want a player who:
averages 80 minutes
has 50% plus consistency for a premium player and 40% plus for a cheaper player
good form over the last 10 and 5 matches and has a DGW34/35.
Jimenez is the only player who ticks all those boxes
Official FPL fixture schedule
Other stuff
If you’re needing to plan your FPL transfers use Joseph Crilleys google spreadsheet which is an excellent team planning tool.
See also 5 FFGeek contributors first draft WC teams plus another 3 contributors WC teams as well as the Geeks first draft wildcard team
There’s also Andrew Ferguson’s wildcard draft team. He finished with an OR of 715 last season
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