fantasy premier league transfer tips GW5 – the bandwagons and sinking ships


,

Here’s our fantasy premier league transfer tips GW5 article where we outline the bandwagons and sinking ships. These are the 4 most transferred in players (bandwagons) and 4 most transferred out players (sinking ships) so far in the FPL gameweek.

fantasy premier league transfer tips GW5 – the bandwagons and sinking ships

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FFGeek contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual FPL teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.

You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors

FFGeek private leagues

Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members

$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month




The Bandwagons

These are the 4 most transferred IN players so far in the gameweek

Abraham

The £7.2m Chelsea forward has scored 4 goals in his last 2 games and that sort of form for a top 6 side of last season at £7.2m is going get alot of FPL managers transfer fingers twitching that’s for sure.  I personally find it difficult to assess players that are new to the league.  It’s even hard to assess his 4 goals.  His 2 against Norwich were pretty low probability type strikes which you’d question how repeatable they are and his 2 vs Sheffield United were the result of individual errors handing him chances on a plate.   Still you can only score what’s in front of you.

Abraham did have a stint at Swansea in 17/18.  He had a fairly respectable record for his 15 starts and 16 sub appearances with a PP90 of 4.5.  However if you translate that to a goal or assist every 214 minutes it’s pretty ordinary to say the least.  However it shouldn’t be forgotten that Swansea scored an obscenely low number of 28 goals on their way to relegation.

His record in the Championship was excellent though with 40 starts and 26 goals and 3 assists with a goal or assist every 119 minutes which is pretty impressive.  It’s hard even to translate that to the premier league as most examples of players transferring to the PL from the Championship are to sides with lower expectations.  Therefore, it’s not a perfect comparison to the Chris Woods of this world who then came up from the Championship to Burnley with a similar record to Abrahams.  Woods then scored 10 goals and 3 assists at a PPM of 4.3 in the PL.  That’s a similar record to Jota or Deulofeu last season  and slightly better than Josh King.  However that was with Burnley not Chelsea so is the comparison relevant at all?

There is also a potential minutes issue for Abrahams in that he has back up of Giroud and Batshuayi.  So far this season he’s been a sub once and played 65, 74 and 83 minutes.  It also means he has ready made replacements if Lampard decides to change things.

So in summary a starting forward for Chelsea at £7.2m is great value and his underlying stats in terms of expected and volumes are very good so far but how he performs in the future is difficult to predict with little previous PL info to go on.  Also his minutes as an obvious substitution target and with 2 ready made replacements are the risks.

Tricky games against Wolves and Liverpool next give an option for further observation if wanted

GW5 WOL (A)
GW6 LIV (H)
GW7 BHA (H)
GW8 SOU (A)
GW9 NEW (H)
GW10 BUR (A)

James

3 goals in 3 starts for the Man Utd AM.  This is another situation similar to Abraham in that we have a player coming from the Championship to a side with top 6/4 aspirations.  The situation is even more extreme than Abraham in that Swansea finished 10th in the Championship compared to Abraham’s Villa who finished 5th and scored 17 more goals.

Last season he started 28 games plus 5 as sub for 4 goals and 2 assists at a goal or assist every 417 minutes.  That’s poor and the sort of record a good attacking CB would be looking for.  Now he’s scored 3 goals in 3 starts plus 1 as sub.  That’s a goal or assist every 94 minutes and is Aguero country.  So obviously he’s not going to continue at that level but it’s impossible to predict the level he will continue at.

However if you look at the basics you would think £6.1m for a player who has started as a close to 90 minute player as a AM in a side with top 4 aspirations certainly lessens the investment for that risk.

GW5 LEI (H)
GW6 WHU (A)
GW7 ARS (H)
GW8 NEW (A)
GW9 LIV (H)
GW10 NOR (A)

De Bruyne

After a bit of a disaster year in 18/19, although certainly not underlying stats wise, it’s back to the output we expect from the £9.8m Man City creator with 5 assists and a goal in his first 4 starts.  What’s more he’s played 2 lots of 90 minutes and then 68 and 78 in the 4-0 and 5-0 wins.

De Bruyne is starting as a number 8 in Pep’s 4-1-2-3 formation which actually gives him more ability to be central as opposed to being wide right in a front 3.

Another good thing about De Bruyne is he’s also a relatively consistent producer of underlying stats and in actual outputs as the 2 seasons prior to 18/19 we saw PPM’s of around 5.5.  You would hope to see at least that this season.

My reservations have been mainly around his price if you’re not going to captain him.  Now Sergio Torija did that successfully in the last gameweek  but alot of managers will own Sterling or Aguero as the primary captain option for Man City games.  There’s also Pep rotation which can be annoying but that does come with the territory.  I think the situation has been helped by a relatively easy UCL group which possibly could be the focus of rotation.  There’s also the fact that Pep will know with Liverpool this season there can be no slip ups so he will be wary of weakening his sides in the PL.

GW5 NOR (A)
GW6 WAT (H)
GW7 EVE (A)
GW8 WOL (H)
GW9 CRY (A)
GW10 AVL (H)

Aguero

What do I need to say about the Man City £12.1m forward.  The highest PPM of any forward last season of 6.1.  He returned a goal or assist in 68% of his matches where he played 45 minutes or more.  Better than any forward.

This season he’s started with 6 goals and an assist in 3 starts plus 1 as a sub.

We all know what he can do when on the pitch.  The question is how much Jesus will affect his gametime either as a starter or with minutes taken off him at the end of games.  On the positive side, Aguero did average 78 minutes when he started last season but there were 8 games in the 31 starts where he was subbed at less than 70 minutes.

There’s also the question as to whether you have him or Sterling as your designated City captain or whether you try and squeeze them both in and acknowledge that only 1 will be a captain and accept the knock on affect in the rest of you team. I certainly have stuck to Sterling and Salah as my designated captains.  Prakhar Patel has gone for 3 with Kane being the 3rd and it still looks like an ok team.

GW5 NOR (A)
GW6 WAT (H)
GW7 EVE (A)
GW8 WOL (H)
GW9 CRY (A)
GW10 AVL (H)




The Sinking Ships

These are the 4 most transferred OUT players so far in the gameweek

Rashford

After 2 goals and an assist in his opening 2 games the Man Utd £8.5m forward has blanked in the last 2.  Those last 2 games came with the added negative of missing a penalty vs C Palace.

However, the last 2 games weren’t a disaster underlying stats wise with very good shot volumes and a decent xG.

The main problem I see is that Martial when fit seems to be the preferred choice for CF with Rashford as the LAM that he’s played in the 3 games prior to GW4 with some self admitted defensive duties.  Even if you accept the fluidity of positions point that him and OGS have stated it’s still not an ideal situation by any stretch.

GW5 LEI (H)
GW6 WHU (A)
GW7 ARS (H)
GW8 NEW (A)
GW9 LIV (H)
GW10 NOR (A)

Wan Bissaka

After an opening clean sheet against Chelsea the following 3 games against Wolves, Palace and Southampton have seen United concede in each.  In addition to that Wan Bissaka has yet to produce an attacking return and has very little in the way of underlying stats to suggest they are around the corner in any quantity.

However what is positive is that Man Utd are currently the team with the lowest xG conceded although they are 5th in lowest shots conceded which is still good.  They are also 2nd for possession which is another positive for the defence.  How much of this is down to a schedule which involves Palace and Wolves who really have started the season poorly from an attacking point of view remains to be seen but it’s certainly a positive.

Lastly there’s the fact that he’s yellow flagged due to a back injury which forced his withdrawal from the England squad although according to the report United are hopeful he will be fit for GW5.

GW5 LEI (H)
GW6 WHU (A)
GW7 ARS (H)
GW8 NEW (A)
GW9 LIV (H)
GW10 NOR (A)

Laporte

Until his injury in the home win over Brighton the £6.5m CB was probably the most secure gametime wise defender for Man City.  It seems having had surgery for the injury that he will be off for some time.  That means £5.4m Otamendi for me as a left sided CB is probably now the most secure City defender.

How much will City be worse off defensively for his absence remains to be seen.  City rely on possession (they have the most of an PL team) and tactical fouls to prevent counter attacks as their primary methods of defence.  Their vulnerability  to set pieces is probably the main issue.  However you are getting defensive representation for £5.4m so you are in that sense getting compensation for the additional unknown risk through a cheaper option that you hope is relatively secure.

Very good fixtures after the Norwich match too.

GW5 NOR (A)
GW6 WAT (H)
GW7 EVE (A)
GW8 WOL (H)
GW9 CRY (A)
GW10 AVL (H)

Martial

The £7.7m Man Utd mid who was playing as the teams CF was injured in the closing stages of the loss to Palace in GW3.  He didn’t make the match day squad for GW4.  Here’s what OGS has said

in relation to a return for GW5

“We’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully [he] won’t be too bad and maybe we can have [him] training during the week.”

I personally sold him as I don’t have the funds to carry anyone and I usually think PL managers tell what is often bordering on misinformation when it comes to injuries.  We may get a meaningful update at the end of the International Break but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

At a basic level, a £7.7m mid playing as a CF for Man Utd is good value especially when Martial has generally performed returns and underlying stats wise when he’s on the pitch.

GW5 LEI (H)
GW6 WHU (A)
GW7 ARS (H)
GW8 NEW (A)
GW9 LIV (H)
GW10 NOR (A)

Other posts

Gameweek 4 review

The early FFGeek team thoughts

Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams

the fixture ease schdeule

Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.

You also get:

Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool

Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors

FFGeek private leagues

Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members

$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month

FFGeek league code codes:

fantasy premier league:  fnqq66

Sky Sports fantasy football:  fantasyfootball.skysports.com/leagues/join with PIN 8426114

Telegraph fantasy football:  passcode 8693.  PIN code 8000919.  The telegraph have also offered a prize of £100 to the winner.

Sun Dream Team:

Classic League PIN:  SGDKX9Y3

H2H PIN:  SGFU3CR9

Social Media

Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

3 thoughts on “fantasy premier league transfer tips GW5 – the bandwagons and sinking ships”

  1. I can’t help but think that people are going to get their fingers burned with “ new to FPL “ players. Experience tells me that it’s wise to limit yourself to only one or two new players until we get well into the season. For every player that transitions well, there are many more that don’t. I am seeing teams with Pukki, Cantwell, Mount, Abraham, James and Lundstram – based on the evidence of just four games.. SIX new players !! that’s going to end in tears.. tried and trusted FPL assets definitely work in the first ten gameweeks.

  2. Cantwell & Lundstram are fine to own as they are both the best (in their position) bargain priced players who are playing. I’d be more worried about the teams that don’t have them.

    Pukki scoring 30 goals in the Championship and playing as the only striker in an attacking (albeit poor) team looks like a solid pick.

    Agree on the other 3 though.

Comments are closed.