Here we look at the stats and FPL prospects of these 2 Premium Forwards new to the Premier League to Man City and Liverpool respectively
FPL New Player Profiles – Erling Haaland and Darwin Nunez
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Erling Haaland – Man City Fwd £11.5m
Here we look at the stats and FPL prospects for the new Man City forward.
The stats
Erling Haaland has completed his transfer to Man City from Dortmund for £51.5m. He’s a 21 yo 1.95m Norwegian CF
He had 21 starts plus 3 as sub for Dortmund in The Bundesliga 21/22. He scored 20 goals plus 5 assists. Thats a very impressive goal or assist every 73 minutes
He has 21 caps for Norway
His underlying numbers are nothing short of sensational and he has produced them at this level for the last 3 seasons.
Last season his xG90 was a mind blowing 0.80 with a very healthy xA90 of 0.28. His shot volume of 3.76 per 90 is good if not at the 4 plus that Salah produces.
What‘s more the last 3 seasons have seen him over perform his xG by a healthy margin which is even more scary.
What are his FPL prospects like?
Firstly there’s no doubt he’s been bought as a CF in order to finish the chances that Man City’s creative players make. The consensus on articles I’ve read is that his movement, pace, pressing and holdup play should make him the ideal CF in Man City’s front 3. His height should also give Man City a plan B option for crosses, should Pep think this is palatable, when behind and more set piece presence.
Then you need to ascertain in relation to any Man City player is the starting and rotation prospects.
Helpfully a week before GW1 Man City will play Liverpool in the Community Shield. That, as well as the preseason beforehand, should give us a good idea of his starting prospects and his likely minutes. It‘s worth noting that with Jesus leaving he doesn’t have a like for like replacement except for the new signing Argentinian Julian Alvarez who until recently they weren’t even sure wouldn’t be loaned out. That should help Haalands average minutes especially if Álvarez is likely to be focused on domestic cups and easier UCL matches in order to help him adjust to the PL and Man City.
Man City’s penalty woes should also mean Haaland takes his Dortmund penalty duties to Man City. Given he is likely to be a very expensive FPL asset and a regular captain option that penalty safety net is bound to come in handy.
Another positive is the fact that Norway didn’t qualify for the World Cup meaning Pep can play him up to then knowing he will get a good rest at that point. Given most weeks involve 2 games for Clubs in Europe that’s a big plus.
If you were on the hunt for negatives you’d probably look at the struggles of attacking players from the Bundesliga. Werner, Havertz, Sancho, Pulisic and Haller all have been disappointing to some degree. However that does ignore the successes of Aubameyang, De Bruyne, Son and Sane.
Will he be in the FFGeek team for GW1?
It‘s hard to ignore a Man City CF at a reasonable £11.5m if preseason and the Community Shield confirm his starting position and average minutes. For that reason I think it’s likely that he is in my GW1 team.
Given the dominance of Man City in games and the chances they create plus the penalty duty bump I can see him being a big success as well as a go to captain option.
I’ve rated Man City’s fixtures from an attacking players point of view as the 5th best. Although GW1 could be better at West Ham they have Bournemouth and Forest in the next 5. Here’s the attacking player fixture ease schedule.
Darwin Nunez – Liverpool Fwd £9.0m
Stats
Darwin Nunez to Liverpool from Benfica. £64.3m Plus add ons. He’s a 22yo 1.87m Uruguayan CF
He made 24 starts plus 4 as sub for Benfica in the Portuguese premier league in 21/22. He scored 26 goals plus 4 assists. That’s a very impressive goal or assist every 68 minutes.
He has 11 caps for Uruguay.
It‘s also worth stating he scored in both Champions League matches against Liverpool last season.
His underlying stats are also good. His xG per 90 was an impressive 0.66 and his shot volume a good 3.6 per 90.
Interestingly he overperformed his xG significantly with 26 goals against an xG of 15.74. That’s against a backdrop of underperforming it the previous season. So he either improved significantly or more likely got very lucky. It is worth remembering that the base xG 90 though is very good.
I say all this with the caveat that the Portuguese league is probably less difficult than the Premier League. Diaz however was an instant success from that league. You’d also say Fernandes, Jota and Jimenez have transferred successfully to different degrees.
What are his Liverpool prospects?
Firstly it’s worth saying that Liverpool’s front 3 has Salah, Jota, Firmino and Diaz as players looking to start in it. Firmino and Jota are the 2 that are most likely to compete for Nunez’s CF position. So even if he becomes the starter at CF we could see him be a sub magnet for Jota and/or Firmino and taken off around the 70 minute mark.
The Community Shield v Man City the week before GW1 especially, as well as the pre-season will give us a chance to assess what his starting prospects and minutes per game are.
He did play off the left as well as CF for Benfica so he could also play LF but there he would be competing with the phenomenally successful Diaz so although this adds some versatility to his game it still presents gametime issues.
His FPL price of £9.0m seems quite steep given the gametime uncertainty and average minutes risk. Especially when you compare him to Diaz at £8.0m.
The advantage he does have is fixtures. I’ve ranked Liverpool 7th in attacking teams fixture ease over the first 6 fixtures and GW1 is a very tempting fixture at Fulham.
Will he be in the FFGeek team for GW1?
No in simple terms. I’m likely to have Alexander Arnold and Salah in my GW1 team and then 1 of Robertson or Diaz.
Again here’s the fixture ease schedule
Other Posts
Improvements for the 22/23 season
The FFGeek Fixture Ease Schedule
Assessing the 3 Promoted Teams
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