FPL teams 2019 20 – An update on the FFGeek team


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Here’s my FPL teams 2019 20 article where I give my latest thinking on the FFGeek team with less than a week to go.

FPL teams 2019 20 – An update on the FFGeek team

See the latest contributor draft teams, article 1, article 2 and article 3.

If you just want to see a team each week which tracks the contributors teams favourite players captain picks and transfers then join our Patreon site

The patreon site also has additional content in the form of Podcasts, an interactive transfer and points prediction tool, 4 £50 prize leagues for the first 160 joiners and a Slack channel for discussion with members and contributors.  There’s also a FFGeek contributors tracker FPL team and Joe’s transfer planner team.  The first $3 monthly payment gets you in the prize leagues for the season and Slack channel for the season.

By the way if you’re new to the site my last 3 overall ranks are 36k, 17k and 21k.  Consistent if not spectacular.

For those who followed the ups and downs of my team last season they will not be surprised that I am currently paralysed by indecision and procrastination to the extent that I have 2 versions of my team on the go.  So Ill start firstly with the core of both teams and then go on to the rest.



Structure and core

So if you read my value for money article you’ll see, unsurprisingly, that the value at the moment is in defence.  This is in part due to the trend towards attacking fullbacks (TAA and Robertson were 3rd and 5th in assists in the PL last season) and partly due to Liverpool and Man Citys ability to get clean sheets.  21 and 20 last season which is higher than any totals in the last 3 years.  While I think those figures are outliers on previous seasons I have faith in both Man City and Liverpool for different reasons.  Liverpool for attack and Man City for defence by possession.

So what I’m getting to is that my team will be defence heavy.

So apart from that, I have pretty much decided on 11 of 15 players.  You’d think that was progress but it really doesn’t feel like it.

If you’ve listened to our Podcasts you’ll know there has been a fair amount of discussion about wildcard strategy and whether there’s a fixed time to do it (after GW4 being popular) as in Chris Tucker and Kev from Canada .  Conversley myself and Yaniv don’t have a fixed view but will wait until it’s needed.

I also worry less about flexibility than alot of managers who like to structure their team on different price points.  Joseph Crilley for example.  I’m not convinced there’s anyone who can’t wait until I have 2 free transfers and if I can’t wait most problems can be sorted by a -4.  Yes I’ll lose value and pay more but if there was an absolute correlation between team value and overall rank I would have had to quit FPL years ago.

The Core players

Here’s a graphic of the 11 core players I’ve pretty much decided upon.  Ignore those in grey for the moment.

FPL TEAMS 2019 20

Designated Captains

This is where I started.  My 2 captains are the 2 biggest points per match players in the game.  I did have Aguero but a late return and the popularity of Sterling has made me change.  I got into enough head to head battles with template players last season and I have absolutely no desire to repeat that here.  My head to head experiment against Salah for a short while last season was enough to age me more than I care for.  Going against a player as explosive as Sterling who will be a popular captain is just asking for trouble.

Having done that I  moved on to defence where I have decided for sometime to go 2 Liverpool and 2 Man City plus Spurs representation.

Goalkeepers

In 17/18 only David De Gea did better than Nick Pope in saving more than he was expected to so it will surprise some that as soon as Heaton leaves for Villa and Pope becomes the number 1 that I’ve ditched him for Lloris.

My feeling is that Spurs will be the 3rd best defence for the season now that they’ve got a proper defensive midfielder in Ndombele and Alderweireld looks like he’s staying.  Ironically Trippier leaving should also improve their defence.  The issue with the defence is that the CBs offer little attacking threat and the fullbacks will be rotated so instead I went for Lloris.  Lloris is a great shot stopper and we should see save points as well as clean sheets.  He also had the most bonus points out of any of the top 6 GKs

I’ve gone for Button as a back up.  His high ownership may mean that people pick him assuming he will start and then he’s sold and the price drops but for me he becomes a handy back up if Ryan is injured.  The other £4.0m GKs are arguably all 3rd choice not 2nd.

Defenders

If I told you that Alexander Arnold had better xA per 90 than James Maddison and the same as Eriksen then you’d probably be surprised I expect.  Also he was 3rd and Robertson 5th in the number of assists last season.  That plus 21 clean sheets is the reason why I’ve splashed out on both Robertson and Alexander Arnold.  If I was trying to talk myself out of it I would say that Liverpool overperformed their expected goals significantly and both FBs overperformed their expected assists but I’m not talking myself out of this irrespective of that or their questionable defensive pre-season.

Man City are a different kettle of fish.  They keep clean sheets by possession and unlike Liverpool they should have had more clean sheets last season.  The acquisition of Rodri will take the pressure of Fernandinho and keep him fresher.  I have to think Stones will start given that Otamendi is late back and that he was out of favour last season.  Zinchenko should start given the Mendy injury.  When Mendy returns I will want to get him so it will be a swap albeit with a price difference which would cause delay.

Midfield

The only certain starters at the moment are Sterling and Salah as I discussed above.  I also will definitely have Dendoncker who I think is an excellent box to box midfielder. He will be my bench player. Him being £4.5m is an embarrassment to some of the FPL CDMs at £5.0m like Rice, Torreira, Ndidi and Dier.

Forwards

I personally have some question marks over Wilson and Fraser.  Fraser’s xA was nearly 4 times his xA in 17/18.  Wilson’s xG was 50% over his 17/18 season and his xA was 4 times his 17/18 xA and 5 times his 16/17 xA.  Are these exceptional figures in 18/19 the new reality or just a mirage and we see them go back to some pre 18/19 level.  Who knows but I have no desire to get into a game of chicken with the multitude of FPL teams that have them both when their opening fixtures are Sheffield United and Aston Villa.  So I’ve decided to get Wilson as by proxy having Wilson you have Fraser to some extent given the history of Fraser assisting Wilson for goals.  What I said about Wilson is only an issue in that he’s priced as if he’s going to have another season like last season.

The other core forward is Greenwood as a likely FPL bench player.  I probably think he won’t start given that I imagine James and Martial will be the wide players in 4-2-3-1 but he’s worth a shout at that price.

The bench

As I said above Dendoncker and Greenwood are my core bench players.  I want 2 players I feel pretty certain will start.  Others who are wildcarding early will possibly do with 1 and save money elsewhere but I prefer 2 to save for the unexpected selection and injuries.



Team 1 – the Sigurdsson team

Here’s team 1:

The 4 non core players are Sigurdsson, Emerson, Ings and the bench player of Hayden

Sigurdsson

Sigurdsson has it all.  He takes set pieces, he takes pens, he plays behind the striker as a CAM and he has good fixtures.  Hopefully with Moise Kean joining he also has someone who can finish off chances as opposed to Calvert Lewin.  What he and Everton don’t have is pre-season form.  On the negative side he dipped in form last 5 fixtures of last season and last season was also miles better than previous.  I can reconcile that as 17/18 was the Big Sam factor and prior to that was Swansea but it does cause some unknown for a big chunk of money.

Emerson 

Having started the last 2 pre-season games it looks like Emerson should hold his place.  Chelsea were the 3rd best defence last season but their fixtures are questionable. Emerson offers some attacking threat although his stats are nothing to write home about.  Pre-season has been a defensive disaster but it has been without Kante and that’s like taking the foundations out of your house.  Unfortunately Lampard doesn’t play the possession heavy game that Sarri did and that causes some concern but longer term I’d like to think they can produce clean sheets and Emerson can get some attacking returns as an assister if Pulisic plays on the left.

Ings

I can almost see the eye rolls from Yaniv as he reads this.  I’ll start with the positives.  He has great underlying stats (at least on a 90 minute basis), he shoots alot, he can also assist, finished the season in good form, has 4 good fixtures in his first 6 and he has pen duties.  The negative sides are obvious and the reason why he’s stigmatised.  He has a terrible injury record, is a bit of a sub magnet and has questionable finishing skills (he’s not £6m for nothing!).

Hayden

Just a £4.5m bench player who seems fairly guaranteed to play.

Team 2 – The Barkley Perez team

Perez

Looks like he will be used as a wide forward or as Vardy’s strike partner.  Finished the season strongly although his season long stats weren’t as positive.  Good value for money.

Barkley

£6.0m for a Chelsea CAM is great value.  However he didn’t start the last pre-season game which is a concern.  Also the number of attacking midfielders with Willian, Mount, Pulisic, Pedro and Kenedy is a concern.  It’s whether the value is worth the risk as his first game away to Man Utd could be a wait and see.  Digging back through his numbers it’s hard to find anything that backs up him as a purchase.  It’s a gut feel value gamble rather than an analytical pick

Jota

Another strong finisher to last season.  The Europa League isn’t an ideal back drop though.

Lowton

A second bench player.  The £4.5m defenders are a tough call.  I haven’t looked for a rotation option with Dendoncker I’ve just gone for what hopefully will be a reasonable cheap defence.  If Tarkowski goes to Leicester though that would significantly weaken Burnley.  However if Dunk goes to Leicester he would be a good £4.5m option.   Another other option could be Soyuncu of Leicester but that would depend on him nailing the Maguire replacement spot and there being no incoming transfer as Rodgers has hinted at.

That’s it hope you found it useful.  I’ll put out a final team sometime next Friday.  The contributors next Thursday Friday

Attacking player fixture schedule

fantasy premier league fixtures

A defenders fixture ease schedule

See the latest contributor draft teams, article 1, article 2 and article 3.

If you just want to see a team each week which tracks the contributors teams favourite players captain picks and transfers then join our Patreon site

The patreon site also has additional content in the form of Podcasts, an interactive transfer and points prediction tool, 4 £50 prize leagues for the first 160 joiners and a Slack channel for discussion with members and contributors.  There’s also a FFGeek contributors tracker FPL team and Joe’s transfer planner team.  The first $3 monthly payment gets you in the prize leagues for the season and Slack channel for the season.

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14 thoughts on “FPL teams 2019 20 – An update on the FFGeek team”

  1. Hi great analysis, I have almost the same core players as you I think 9/11 , Ido like the Lloris option, I do prefer option 2, but only Jota (who I like alot) they have tough start plus Europa league, maybe I would start with someone else, but great team..
    BTW ings having a great preseason and Ido consider him my self

  2. What do you think about replacing walker and button FOR stones and Ryan in the Barkley Perez team ? Wouldn’t that actually provide for GK rotation come City v Spurs ?

  3. Thanks for all the work you put in Geek, it is much appreciated as always. Great core. I’d go option 2 if I had to pick, Ings is suspect at best if you ask me.

    Is anybody considering a Watford player with those 4 starting fixtures? Picking the right one just seems a rol of the dice to be fair.

    Also any new on the foyth injury? KWP for 5.0 seems like a good deal.

  4. Don’t see a reason to go 5.5 on lloris with an early city fixture when you know you’re prob gonna want to wildcard by gw5 anyway. Why spend 4.5 on lowton instead of a 4.0 bench defender too?

    Ryan for Lloris and a 4.0 defender means you can upgrade Barkley to Fraser.

      • Wild carding GW5 means you get to see set ups for every team the first 4 weeks. Choose the value players early and set your team up for the run to Xmas.

      • I always wildcard GW4 or 5. We get to see how new signings like Joao Concelo and Pepe are entering a team, and we can hop onto the best value early instead of trying to work transfers and play catch-up each week. It also lets us set up a successful team to go by fixtures for the first 4 weeks, and then switch to a long-term team once we see how everything has started to flesh out.

  5. Is anyone worried about TAA’s minutes? Liverpool were dreadful at the back today until Matip came on for Trent and Gomez switched to full back.

    • I’ve gone Van Dijk and Robertson because I am a bit worried about the possibility of Gomez rotating with TAA a bit, particularly if TAA’s poor form continues.

    • No concerns. He’s a world-class fb with plenty of points in him this season. He ended last season very well and is still on set-piece duty. Struggling against City doesn’t give me any reason to worry about a home game to Norwich.

    • Not sure it’s a concern as so many are shifting investment from forwards to defence. Despite that, I’m certainly considering Kane – well rested, as nailed as any player can be, decent-ish fixtures and, God, what talent. Can’t ignore.

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