Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW3 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and some stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.
fantasy premier league captain pick GW3 – plus transfer poll results
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The fixtures
Bookies team odds to win
Odds to win for £1 staked
Bournemouth v Man City £1.18 – Sterling De Bruyne
Spurs v Newcastle £1.25 – Kane
Man Utd v C Palace £1.35 – Martial, Rashford, Pogba
Liverpool v Arsenal £1.47 – Salah, Mane, Firmino
The Bookies player odds
The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.
£1.50 – Kane
£1.67 – Sterling, Aguero
£1.91 – Salah
£1.95 – Son HM
£2.00 – Pukki, Moura
£2.05 – Mane
£2.15 – Rashford, Martial
£2.20 – Abraham, Giroud, Firmino
£2.37 – Vardy, Jimenez, Lamela
£2.40 – Haller, Chicharito
The Captain Poll
The captain poll asks who will be your captain?
The contributors captain picks
Sterling v Kane stats
Sterling away vs non top 6 stats in 18/19
So Sterling returned in 6 of 12 games 3 of which were double figures. The other 3 returns were just assists with no bonus.
Kane at home to non top 6 sides in 18/19
So a similar picture although Kane returned in 5 of 7 which is a higher % than Sterling
Defences
Bournemouth at home last season conceded 25 goals vs an xGA of around 25.
Newcastle away conceded 23 goals against an xGA of around 30.
I suspect this is largely due to the difference in goal keeping quality.
Both were ranked 10th in xG conceded home and away respectively.
Summary
The bookies have Kane as a reasonable favourite over Sterling by £1.50 over £1.67
The polls favour Sterling as the most captained. This will largely be due to the ownership differences.
The stats are fairly similar both from an attacking and defensive perspective.
The FFGeek view
I don’t own Kane so Sterling it is for me. If I did own Kane though I would go with him I think. Newcastle’s extremely poor defensive performance against Norwich being the main reason and the fact that Rafa has left means they seem to have lost that defensive strength of last season.
Good luck whoever you choose
The transfer in and out polls
Other GW3 posts
Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams
Early thoughts on the FFGeek team
Geek note: If you join our Patreon site you will get access to an FPL contributor tracker team which combines the contributors individual teams each week to show their favourite players, transfers and captains. It will always be completed on a Friday/Saturday in a normal gameweek. There will also be a spreadsheet of each managers teams, transfers and captains so you can drill down further.
You also get:
Joe’s interactive transfer planner and points projection tool
Weekly podcasts with myself and the contributors
FFGeek private leagues
Access to the FFGeek Slack channel for discussion with the contributors and members
$2 and $3 tiers per calendar month. No commitment beyond 1 month
FFGeek league code codes:
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